Sunday, July 6, 2008

Game 89: Mets at Phillies (3/4)

New York Mets: 43-44
Philadelphia Phillies: 48-40

Oliver Perez (6-5 4.98 ERA, 2-3 3.83 ERA)
Kyle Kendrick (8-3 4.58 ERA, 1-1 3.00 ERA)

Projected lineups

Reyes SS
Chavez RF
Wright 3B
Beltran CF
Schneider C
Delgado 1B
Easley 2B
Anderson LF
Perez P

Werth RF
Utley 2B
Rollins SS
Howard 1B
Burrell LF
Feliz 3B
Victorino CF
Coste C
Kendrick P

After things unraveled late last night, the Phillies will get right back into it this afternoon with a beatable pitcher. Perez has decent numbers against us, but it's almost guaranteed he's not going to have command of his stuff. The lineup needs to stay patient and wait for him to make mistakes. He walks a lot of guys, and if he's going to just give away baserunners, they need to take advantage.

I think it's pretty much a lock that Utley and Lidge are headed to New York in a week and a half. After that, I'm pretty confident Burrell will make it and finally be a first time All-Star. Hamels is the guy I'm not sure about. He's a top pitcher in most categories, and it just depends on Clint Hurdle looking at the right ones.

Phillies Extend Lidge

To a 3 year, 37.5 million dollar contract with a team option for 2012.

12.5/year is probably the going rate for good closers these days, and Lidge certainly fits the bill this year. He's been one of the best in the league so far in 2008, and I suspect he will be named an All-Star later today.

That certainly adds a lot to next year's payroll though. Is this team going to pay more, or are we making cuts in other places? What does this mean for Pat Burrell, whose contract expires after this season? Can we really afford to pay Brett Myers 12 million next year too? Would someone take Adam Eaton off our hands? We shall see.

Saturday, July 5, 2008

If I Decided The All-Star Rosters

I'm going to attempt to project the two 32 man rosters that will take the field in the Bronx for the MLB All-Star Game. The real selections will be revealed tomorrow. I'm using the numbers through Friday night's games with the starters being determined by the last voting update.

American League

C- Joe Mauer, Twins
1B- Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
2B- Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
SS- Derek Jeter, Yankees
3B- Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
OF- Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
OF- Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
OF- Josh Hamilton, Rangers
DH- David Ortiz, Red Sox
SP- Cliff Lee, Indians

C- A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
1B- Jason Giambi, Yankees
2B- Ian Kinsler, Rangers
2B- Brian Roberts, Orioles
SS- Michael Young, Rangers
3B- Mike Lowell, Red Sox
3B- Evan Longoria, Rays
OF- Milton Bradley, Rangers
OF- Jermaine Dye, White Sox
OF- Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
OF- J.D. Drew, Red Sox
OF- Grady Sizemore, Indians

SP- Scott Kazmir, Rays
SP- Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
SP- Joe Saunders, Angels
SP- Justin Duchscherer, A's
SP- John Danks, White Sox
SP- Felix Hernandez, Mariners
RP- George Sherrill, Orioles
RP- Joakim Soria, Royals
RP- Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
RP- Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
RP- Joe Nathan, Twins

I went ahead and took a 33rd player because it's unlikely Ortiz will play. The last guy to make it was Joe Nathan, and a couple guys that just missed the cut included Carlos Quentin and Jon Lester. The Red Sox lead the AL with seven reps, three of which were chosen by me and not the Red Sox Voting Commission of America. Brian Roberts was a late addition to get another middle infield type involved. Choosing a C was difficult because a bunch of guys rest a lot and don't qualify. Pierzynski did qualify, and although Dioner Navarro and Gerald Laird had slightly better numbers, it wasn't enough to justify taking them over a guy who has remained healthy all year.

National League

C- Geovany Soto, Cubs
1B- Lance Berkman, Astros
2B- Chase Utley, Phillies
SS- Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
3B- Chipper Jones, Braves
OF- Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
OF- Ken Griffey Jr., Reds
OF- Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
DH- Pat Burrell, Phillies
SP- Dan Haren, Diamondbacks

C- Brian McCann, Braves
1B- Albert Pujols, Cardinals
1B- Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
2B- Dan Uggla, Marlins
SS- Jose Reyes, Mets
SS- J.J. Hardy, Brewers
3B- David Wright, Mets
OF- Xavier Nady, Pirates
OF- Matt Holliday, Rockies
OF- Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
OF- Jason Bay, Pirates

SP- Johan Santana, Mets
SP- Ben Sheets, Brewers
SP- Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
SP- Tim Lincecum, Giants
SP- Edinson Volquez, Reds
SP- Cole Hamels, Phillies
RP- Jon Rauch, Nationals
RP- Takashi Saito, Dodgers
RP- Brad Lidge, Phillies
RP- Kerry Wood, Cubs
RP- Billy Wagner, Mets

Unfortunately, Billy Wagner was the last guy on. Adam Dunn, Carlos Lee, Nate McLouth and Tim Hudson just missed out. The Cubs lead the NL with five reps, and the Phillies and Mets are just behind with four each. The Dodgers and Padres really throw a wrench into things. They really don't have any outstanding players, and I went with Saito and Gonzalez. Peavy and Young have missed some starts this season, so it was tougher to include them, and Gonzalez is by far their best hitter. LA has Russell Martin, but because I chose Gonzalez for SD, I already had three C/1B guys on the bench.

That was fun. Tomorrow, we'll see who the real managers picked, and how their decisions differ from mine. There will almost certainly be something to complain about.

Game 88: Mets at Phillies (2/4)

New York Mets: 42-44
Philadelphia Phillies: 48-39

John Maine (8-6 3.86 ERA, 4-0 2.05 ERA)
Jamie Moyer (7-6 4.13 ERA, 4-7 2.88 ERA)

Projected lineups

Reyes SS 8/26, 2 RBI, .308/.333/.423
Church RF 3/11, 2 RBI, .273/.333/.364
Wright 3B 11/24, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .458/.480/.833
Beltran CF 10/45, 2 RBI, .222/.327/.289
Delgado 1B 30/71, 8 HR, 17 RBI, .423/.494/.859
Easley 2B 12/44, 1 RBI, .273/.407/.341
Schneider C 2/5, 1 RBI, .400/.571/.400
Tatis LF 1/2, .500/.667/1.000
Maine P

Rollins SS 3/18, 1 RBI, .167/.211/.278
Victorino CF 5/14, .357/.400/.357
Utley 2B 7/18, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .389/.381/.667
Howard 1B 3/18, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .167/.286/.333
Burrell LF 3/19, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .158/.238/.316
Feliz 3B 3/5, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .600/.667/1.400
Jenkins RF 1/3, .333/.333/.667
Ruiz C 3/9, .333/.333/.333
Moyer P

The Phillies run into a problem tonight. John Maine has great career numbers against the Phillies, and he is yet to lose a game against them. They would obviously like to end that tonight and keep up the momentum from last night's win. Familiarity shouldn't be an issue here. Everyone in the lineup has faced him at least once, even the guys that didn't play here last year, Jenkins and Feliz.

I guess J.A. Happ did about as well as you could expect considering the circumstances. I'm not going to shower him with praise like some did because he didn't last 5 innings and got bailed out in a major way by Chad Durbin, but he did okay. Later today, I'm going to watch the game on tape and break down how things really went.

Friday, July 4, 2008

Game 87: Mets at Phillies (1/4)

New York Mets: 42-43
Philadelphia Phillies: 47-39

Johan Santana (7-7 3.01 ERA, 1-0 3.09 ERA)
J.A. Happ (0-0 --- ERA, 0-1 11.25 ERA)

Projected lineups

Reyes SS 1/3, .333/.333/.333
Church RF N/A
Wright 3B 1/2, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .500/.500/2.000
Beltran CF 2/3, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .667/.667/1.667
Delgado 1B 1/2, .500/.500/1.000
Easley 2B 1/2, .500/.500/.500
Tatis LF N/A
Castro C N/A
Santana P

Rollins SS 0/3
Victorino CF
Utley 2B 1/3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .333/.333/1.333
Burrell LF 1/4, .250/.400/.250
Howard 1B 0/3
Werth RF 0/3
Feliz 3B 1/7, 1 RBI, .143/.143/.143
Coste C N/A
Happ P

Happ will make his 2008 ML debut in a somewhat familiar situation. Last year, he made his ML debut against the Mets in an early-summer four game series. Hopefully he fares better than last year. He was touched up early and only went 4 IP. He was injured last year, and this is his first return trip to the majors since.

I honestly have to say I'm not too confident about this one. The Mets only have two lefty hitters in their lineup, and those are obviously the guys Happ will have the most success against. Even though Delgado hit him hard last year, I think the improved, non-injured Happ can come out on top against him. However, he needs to gain confidence in his secondary stuff against righties quickly, or Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey will be warming up much too soon.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Game 86: Phillies at Braves (3/3)

I realized my game count was behind. Not sure how that happened.

Philadelphia Phillies: 46-39
Atlanta Braves: 40-44

Cole Hamels (8-5 3.38 ERA, 4-2 3.59 ERA)
Jair Jurrjens (8-3 2.94 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)

Projected lineups

Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Werth RF N/A
Dobbs 3B N/A
Ruiz C N/A
Hamels P

Blanco LF 1/2, .500/.500/.500
Escobar SS 0/6, .000/.250/.000
Larry 3B 3/9, 2 HR, 3 RBI, .333/.400/1.111
Teixeira 1B 1/7, 1 RBI, .143/.143/.143
McCann C 5/13, 3 RBI, .385/.385/.615
Kotsay CF 0/2
Johnson 2B 1/11, .091/.231/.182
Francoeur RF 5/21, 1 RBI, .238/.238/.238
Jurrjens P

A sweep would be great, and with your ace on the hill, there's no reason it can't happen. After some tense moments to finish up last night's ball game, the Phillies have to come back tonight and face a very tough pitcher. Jair Jurrjens gives up less than a hit an inning, but his K/BB numbers and ratios aren't particularly overwhelming. He's beatable, and the lefties such as Utley and Howard will have a chance to do damage tonight.

On the farm, Carlos Carrasco felt some tightness in his shoulder during warmups last night. I doubt this is some sort of smokescreen to fool the Mets, and it's a shame he got hurt. This means it's likely J.A. Happ getting the call for tomorrow's start. Brett Myers made his AAA debut, and gave up 3 runs in 5 IP. The results aren't what matters with him. He needs to execute his pitches, and apparently his secondary stuff was fine. Myers needs to locate his fastball and stay low in the zone. He was throwing some pitches in the dirt last night, so maybe he was a bit too low.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Flyers Free Agent Wrap Up

Obviously the offseason isn't over yet, but we all know most of the activity on the market happens almost immediately. Campbell signed, Sundin's biding his time, and Hossa surprised a lot of people. Obviously the Flyers weren't involved with these names, but that's not going to stop them from getting things done.

First, the team traded D Denis Gauthier just a day after putting him on waivers. Great trade, who'd we get, right? Wrong. Obviously it's great that he's off the payroll, and make no mistake about it; that's what we needed to happen. However, it's annoying that he had such little value that we had to give LA something to take him. Along with Goat, the Flyers sent the Kings a second round pick to get D Patrik Hersley and Ned Lukacevic. Both will likely play with the Phantoms.

They also signed four free agents. We'll start with the two that will play with the Flyers: Glen Metropolit and probably Ossi Vaananen. Metropolit is a nice depth player that can probably play every forward position, and he chipped in 11 goals for Boston last year. He probably won't get that many this year, but he'll put in some time on the PK, and the Flyers need guys like that. Vaananen is a potential 5-6 D-Man who plays physical and blocks shots. He got a bit banged up, so he had to play in Sweden last year. He's back, and hopefully he can contribute. They also added Nate Raduns and Sean Currey to the Phantoms.

Today, the signings of Randy Jones and Riley Cote became official. As you can tell by my headline, the Jones signing doesn't sit well with me. I like him a lot, but that is a lot of money for a player still proving himself. I really hope he earns it.

Game 85: Phillies at Braves (2/3)

Philadelphia Phillies: 45-39
Atlanta Braves: 40-43

Adam Eaton (2-6 4.86 ERA, 3-3 5.94 ERA)
Jorge Campillo (3-2 2.54 ERA, 0-0 3.12 ERA)

Projected lineups

Rollins SS 0/3, .000/.250/.000
Victorino CF 2/4, .500/.500/.500
Utley 2B 1/4, .250/.250/.250
Howard 1B 2/4, 2 RBI, .500/.500/1.000
Burrell LF 1/4, .250/.400/.250
Jenkins RF 0/3, 1 RBI
Dobbs 3B 1/2, .500/.667/.500
Coste C 2/3, .667/.667/1.000
Eaton P

Blanco LF 0/2, .000/.333/.000
Johnson 2B 3/10, 2 HR, 4 RBI, .300/.364/1.000
Larry 3B 6/12, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .500/.500/1.083
Teixeira 1B 3/5, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .600/.600/1.600
McCann C 1/7, 2 RBI, .143/.250/.143
Kotsay CF 2/5, .400/.500/.600
Francoeur RF 3/10, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .300/.364/.600
Lillibridge SS N/A
Campillo P

Isn't it sweet to be back in the NL? After getting humiliated by the AL, which looks to be as strong as ever, the Phillies returned to the safe confines of the NL East and posted an 8-3 victory last night. Everything looked better. Kyle Kendrick pitched well again, and the offense put up a bunch of runs, including several in the late innings to put away the game. It would be great to win two in a row and guarantee our first series win since sweeping this same team in the same place earlier this month, but I can't say I'm too confident in Adam Eaton.

The Phillies still haven't announced who will take Brett Myers' spot in the rotation. In the meantime, they called up R.J. Swindle from AAA because Clay Condrey's wife just had a baby. He'll probably stick around until a starter is actually called up. Why announce it now? Make the Mets wait and give them less time to scout whoever comes up.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Myers Demoted

According to the Phillies and every beat writer and blogger that covers the team, Brett Myers will report to AAA Lehigh Valley and start tomorrow against Scranton.

This has been a long, hard stretch for Myers and the Phillies. After transitioning to the closer role last year, Myers had to move back to the rotation this spring, where he's had success before. He was named as the Opening Day starter, partly as a reward and partly because of his ability. However, nothing came together. It was bad outing after bad outing. Walk after walk. Home run after home run.

The Phillies just had to stop giving away games. They were not winning his starts, and he was putting the team in a hole early. I'm confident he can work out his problems and get back, but they have to go in a different direction for a bit.

Who's coming up? All indications point to J.A. Happ or Carlos Carrasco. Brian Mazzone is an outside possibility, but he's one of those AAA guys who never really made a splash in the minors, and he'll have a tough time convincing anyone he should be up. Someone high up in the organization said that Carrasco will get the first call if necessary, but he struggled in his last start, and that could change things. I think it'll be Happ.

As a random note, this makes the Phillies the 30th and obviously final team to make a change to their pitching staff this season. Prior to this move, the Phillies had the same 12 pitchers on the team all season long.

Game 84: Phillies at Braves (1/3)

Philadelphia Phillies: 44-39
Atlanta Braves: 40-43

Kyle Kendrick (7-3 4.59 ERA, 2-0 4.03 ERA)
Charlie Morton (1-1 4.24 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)

Projected lineups

Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Feliz 3B N/A
Jenkins RF N/A
Coste C N/A
Kendrick P

Blanco CF 0/2, .000/.600/.000
Gotay 3B N/A
Johnson 2B 4/11, .364/.417/.455
Teixeira 1B 1/6, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .167/.375/.667
McCann C 1/10, .100/.182/.100
Infante SS N/A
Francoeur RF 4/11, 2 RBI, .364/.364/.364
Jones LF N/A
Morton P

The Phillies happily get away from interleague tonight, after a dismal 4-11 showing against the AL. The last time the Phillies won a series was against these same Braves in Atlanta, so hopefully the Phillies can take advantage of them again. They're certainly banged up right now. There's a good chance Chipper goes on the DL, and Yunel Escobar is hurt too. Their lineup is weaker, and Kyle Kendrick needs to have a good game tonight.

Scott Lauber speculates that J.A. Happ could be called up for Thursday's start. I don't know if he has inside information regarding this or if he just hopes Myers is out of the rotation, but it's interesting. He's been having a good year at AAA, and he probably deserves a shot at the majors. Eventually, I think he'll become a long relief/lefty specialist out of the pen.