If They Get There, How Will They Do?

It's obvious that the Flyers are struggling right now, but do the last 10 games of the regular season have any bearing on playoff success/failures? Let's look at all of the post lockout champions and first round sweeps to see.

06/07 Champion- Anaheim Ducks
L 5-3
L 2-1
W 3-2
L 1-0
W 3-1
W 5-2
W 3-2
L 3-2
L 2-1
W 4-3

So they won five of their last ten. That's obviously worse than their season winning percentage, so they really didn't go into the playoffs very hot. Their goal differential was also only +1, so if there is a correlation between being hot in the last 10 games and winning in the playoffs, the Ducks don't show it.

06/07 Sweep Victim- Atlanta Thrashers
W 2-1
W 4-3
L 5-1
L 2-1
L 3-2
W 3-2
W 3-2
L 3-2
W 4-1
W 3-2

The Thrashers, who went down to the Rangers in four easy games, actually played better than Anaheim in their last 10. They won 6 games with a goal differential of +1. This was the first time they ever made the playoffs, so their defeat was kind of embarrassing. Like the Ducks, the Thrashers show no connection between the end of the regular season and playoff results.

05/06 Champion- Carolina Hurricanes
W 3-2
L 5-2
W 6-5
W 4-3
W 4-3
L 5-2
L 4-3
W 5-4
L 3-2
L 4-0

Another team whose playoff run did not mirror their final 10 games. They too only won 5 of their last 10, and it wasn't pretty with a goal differential of -4. They were playing poor hockey, but when push came to shove, they were able to win the 16 they needed to win the Cup.

05/06 Sweep Victim- New York Rangers
W 5-1
L 4-1
W 3-2
W 3-1
W 4-3
L 3-2
L 3-2
L 5-3
L 4-1
L 5-1

Here we go. The Rangers won 4 of their last 10, but they finished on a five game losing streak with a goal differential of -6. Of the four teams we've looked at, they're really the only ones whose finish helped people predict their playoff run, or lack thereof.

So Flyers fans, if they make the playoffs, it's not a lock that they're four and done. Not because of their poor finish, anyway. If the Flyers are out quickly, it's because they're not good enough. It's a small sample size, but from what we saw, the last 10 games of the regular season don't tell you what a team is going to do in the playoffs.

Game 74: Thrashers at Flyers

Atlanta Thrashers: 31-35-8, 70 points
Philadelphia Flyers: 35-28-10, 80 points

Kari Lehtonen v. Antero Niittymaki

In desperate need of a win, the Flyers host the Thrashers in their first game since the humiliating 7-1 defeat in Pittsburgh. At the moment, they sit one point ahead of Buffalo and two ahead of Washington and Florida. The Flyers, Sabres and Caps all have one game in hand over Florida. Washington is in Nashville tonight, and the other two teams don't play.

Antero Niittymaki will get his first start in a while tonight. He owns Atlanta, so it makes sense.

If the Flyers don't win this game, they will not make the playoffs. There is absolutely no excuse for losing to Atlanta at this point. We all know about how the Flyers own the Thrashers in their history, so I'm not going to waste too much time talking about it. What you have to consider is how bad the Thrashers are right now. They traded Marian Hossa, and one of the players they got in return, Erik Christensen, is out for the season. They've dropped to 14th in the conference, and they're 2-4-4 in their last 10.

Without R.J. Umberger and Derian Hatcher, some players are going to have to step up. Scottie Upshall will be back in the lineup tonight, and you know you can count on him to bring intensity. Hopefully the chemistry on the Briere line isn't disrupted. Playing with Mike Richards, Scott Hartnell has to start playing better again. He was a -4 last calendar week, and my fantasy team suffered because of it.

Bill Meltzer posts his lines and scratches.

Game 52: Flyers at Thrashers

Philadelphia Flyers: 29-17-5, 63 points
Atlanta Thrashers: 26-25-4, 56 points

Antero Nittymaki v. Kari Lehtonen

The Flyers temporarily hit the road tonight, when they follow in the 76ers footsteps and travel down to Atlanta before coming back home to face Washington tomorrow. The Flyers got a couple days off after the very physical 3-0 win over Anaheim before their busy schedule for the rest of the week, including games against Washington tomorrow and the Rangers this weekend.

Antero Nittymaki is back in net tonight. Although Martin Biron played well in the shutout of Anaheim, Niitty has Atlanta's number. In 7 career games against the Thrashers, he's 7-0-0 with a 1.58 Goals Against Average, stopping shots at a .947 clip. Biron should still have momentum from his game against the Ducks when he starts tomorrow. Kari Let'emin? Against the Flyers, it seems that way. Against the Flyers, he's 0-4-0 with a 3.31 GAA. Against Niittymaki, he's never won in pro hockey. I don't put too much stock in that last one, but I feel obligated to mention it.

The Thrashers just seem to get dominated by the Flyers. In two losses this year, Atlanta has been outscored 8-1. Last season, they got swept, even though the Flyers were the worst team in hockey. In fact, you'd have to go back to November of 2005 to find the last time the Thrashers have defeated the Flyers. It's the only time they've done that since the lockout.

Fortunately for the Flyers, it appears that Ilya Kovalchuk will again be out of the lineup. He has 13 goals in 22 career games against Philadelphia, and he's a threat to score every time he touches the puck. They've still rattled off three straight even without him, so despite their early season struggles, the Thrashers are doing well for themselves right now.

As per usual, Bill Meltzer has the scratches. Honestly, why would you even read this blog when I link to his regularly? He does a lot of great stuff and Flyers fans can't thank him enough for what he posts.

Lasse Kukkonen
Joffrey Lupul
Rory Fitzpatrick
Mike Rathje