Prospect Power Rankings 8/1

After a three month hiatus, stock watch is back. There have been several changes in the organization since May 6th, and these rankings will likely reflect that. It's obvious how this works. If a player is performing better, his stock will go up. If he is performing worse, it will go down. Promotions help, demotions hurt.

1. SP Carlos Carrasco AA: 7-7, 4.32 ERA, 114.2 IP, 109 H, 45 BB, 109 K: Stock Push- There really isn't anyone that should take the #1 slot from him. His K rate has gone down just a little bit, but his hit and walk rates have remained steady, if not gotten a little better. This is a good showing for him at AA. It wouldn't be bad for him to throw some AAA innings, and he could compete for a job with the Phillies next March.
2. 2B Adrian Cardenas N/A: Since he's not in the organization anymore, he really has no place on the top prospects list. Good luck in Oakland.
3. SP Joe Savery A+: 5-9, 4.46 ERA, 121 IP, 143 H, 51 BB, 101 K: Stock Down- Although his K rate has stayed roughly the same, his hit and walk rates have shot up, and it's scary. His season started off on the right foot, but the FSL figured him out quickly. He has to find a way to make adjustments and pitch better. This season has been a bit of a disappointment. Savery was expected to use his college experience to push through the system, and it doesn't look like that's happening for now.
4. SP Kyle Drabek R: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 3 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 K: Stock Up- Now that he's back on the hill, his stock is up. His velocity was sitting in the low 90's in his return from surgery, and that's a good spot for him to be at by now. Let's see how he progresses.
5. OF Greg Golson AA: 90/317, 51 R, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 19/23 SB, .284/.329/.435: Stock Push- His rates have gotten a little worse, but this might still be his best minor league season. He's walking a bit more, but he has got to stop striking out. He shouldn't be untouchable at all in any deal. He should get a little taste of AAA pitching before the season is over, and I'd imagine he's headed to Arizona again this offseason.
6. C Lou Marson AA: 101/317, 55 R, 5 HR, 46 RBI, 3/6 SB, .319/.434/.423: Stock Up- Sweet Lou has broken through in 2008, and it looks like he could become a solid major league regular. You'd like to see him develop some more power, but with the mess the Phillies have at the position right now, it's hard to complain about what he's doing. He could be in the majors as soon as Opening Day 2009.
7. P Josh Outman N/A: Good luck with Oakland. It looks like you'll be needing it.
8. OF Dominic Brown A: 110/378, 62 R, 7 HR, 44 RBI, 16/22 stealing, .291/.373/.415: Stock Up- Since the last time I did an entry like this, Brown has become very patient, posting a solid increase in OBP despite a drop in his average. He's starting to smack some more extra base hits, which he'll need to continue to improve to rise through the system. I'd imagine they're going to come as he fills out and slides to a corner position.
9. SP J.A. Happ MLB: 0-0, 3.27 ERA, 11 IP, 8 H, 8 BB, 8 K: Stock Up- It looks like he's finally found his place as a major league pitcher, but his role has not yet been defined. He hasn't pitched since receiving his most recent call up, and it's not clear how Charlie Manuel will use him. It's widely believed that he's Brett Myers insurance, but I'd like to see him get some innings in against lefty hitters in the meantime.
10. SP Edgar Garcia AA: 0-3, 8.77 ERA, 25.2 IP, 29 H, 13 BB, 14 K: Stock Up- Those numbers look absolutely dreadful, but there aren't many 20 year old pitchers in AA. After some struggles in 2007, Garcia recovered by pitching very well in Clearwater and earned an early-July promotion. He's taking his lumps now, but he has great stuff, and it's up to him to make adjustments to the new level.
11. SS Jason Donald AA: 104/338, 53 R, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 10/12 stealing, .308/.388/.509: Stock Up- Even though he's older than you like at Reading, you can't argue with his results. He's getting noticed on the national scene, starting with his appearance in the Futures Game and then his invitation to the Olympic Team. He's a solid all-around player whose stock would jump in a big way if he can prove he can play 3B.
12. SP Drew Carpenter AA: 3-7, 6.35 ERA, 66.2 IP, 88 H, 24 BB, 43 K: Stock Down- At the end of May, the Phillies had enough of Carpenter's performance at Reading, and they sent him down to Florida to get in shape. He got some confidence back in a league he dominated last year, and he pitched a solid outing in his return to the Eastern League. He might be the biggest disappointment in the organization in 2008, and he has to take care of himself better if he wants to regain the ground he gave up this season.
13. SP Antonio Bastardo AA: 2-3, 3.11 ERA, 46.1 IP, 34 H, 29 BB, 39 K: Stock Down- His K rate dropped when he reached Reading, which is to be expected of a pitcher making the jump to the next level. However, the increase in walks wasn't good, and whenever he comes back from the labrum injury, he has to improve his command. His stock isn't going down because of performance, but I have to see if he can battle back from a tough injury and prove he's the same pitcher.
14. SS Freddy Galvis A: 79/337, 44 R, 2 HR, 29 RBI, 10/15 SB, .234/.301/.279: Stock Push- His numbers have improved since the last edition, but I still find it hard to raise him when he's still hitting that poorly. I've seen him in person, and his defense at short is just effortless. If he can improve his swing mechanics, he can at least find a niche in the majors like John McDonald has. I'm still blown that someone so young is playing full season ball.
15. C Jason Jaramillo AAA: 86/325, 34 R, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 0/1 SB, .265/.332/.378: Stock Push- His numbers are leaps and bounds better than they were in early May, but how far does that really get Jaramillo? He's more or less the same as last season, except he traded in a lot of patience for a little more power. He's repeating the level, so you would've liked to see him show a little improvement. I see him being designated for assignment and then taken in the Rule 5 draft next year.
16. C Travis D'Arnaud SS: 40/127, 16 R, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 1/3 SB, .315/.379/.488: Stock Up- I'd imagine that at the end of March when D'Arnaud was told he would be staying in Florida for extra practice to prepare for the New York-Penn season, he wasn't happy. Over a month into the season, he's proving he deserved a shot at full season ball from the start. He's been one of the stars of a solid Williamsport team, and he's answering any questions people had about his offense.
17. P Heitor Correa ?: Stock Down- It's time to issue an Amber Alert for this guy. Where is he? I read on Phuture Phillies almost a month ago that he's been suspended, but I think this has been long enough. He's got good stuff, and it'll be a shame if he was just kicked to the curb, depending on what he did.
18. IF Brad Harman AA: 72/322, 39 R, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 2/3 SB, .224/.294/.370: Stock Down- As one of the extra infielders on the 40 man roster, Harman saw some time with the big club. He'll probably never be more than a nice utility player, but the season he's having now is still disappointing. He needs to put his bat on the ball more often because he does have a little power in that bat. He can hold his own around the infield, but not well enough to make up for his current level of hitting.
19. 3B Travis Mattair A: 88/348, 44 R, 2 HR, 44 RBI, 6/11 SB, .253/.319/.322: Stock Push- He's gotten a little better since the last time I wrote about him, but Mattair is still struggling at the plate. For a guy his size, he's not hitting for enough power, and it's kind of surprising that he's only been able to hit a couple home runs. Another year at Lakewood couldn't hurt, and it wouldn't surprise me if he suited up in the Fall League this offseason.
20. SP Carlos Monasterios A+: 3-7, 5.46 ERA, 61 IP, 74 H, 19 BB, 39 K: Stock Down- Since coming back from an injury that kept him off the mound for a couple months, Monasterios has been lit up. His BB rate is still pretty solid, but his inability to strike batters out is being exposed. He's given up 46 hits in his last 6 starts, which might be a little bit of an aberration, but it's still not good. He's the last part of the Abreu trade that hasn't been seriously injured, released or trying out a new position, so that's looking worse and worse by the day.
21. SP Julian Sampson A: 7-4, 4.53 ERA, 99.1 IP, 117 H, 41 BB, 47 K: Stock Push- I said he'll be a Crosscutter this season when it's all said and done, but it doesn't look like that'll happen. His hit and walk rates have improved, but he still gives up way too many hits, walks a few too many and doesn't strike out nearly enough. His stuff is better than his numbers indicate, and I'm really not sure how he's surviving with the frequency he allows runners to reach base.
22. SP Drew Naylor A+: 1-5, 6.87 ERA, 38 IP, 40 H, 25 BB, 31 K: Stock Up- Naylor is discovering that things aren't as easy in the FSL as the Sally. Every rate is worse, and in the case of his walk rate, significantly. He had a nice two game string of good starts, but overall, he has struggled after the promotion. He was a K machine at Lakewood, and it's a bit disappointing to see he hasn't done it at the new level.
23. 1B Michael Durant A: 63/281, 43 R, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 4/4 SB, .224/.328/.427: Stock Down- July was terrible for Durant, and his average has dipped every month since April. He's a big guy with a lot of power, but like a lot of players with those qualities, his bat misses the ball much too often. Durant has a decent eye, but if he doesn't put the ball in play more, it doesn't mean a thing.
24. SP Scott Mathieson DL: Stock down- I hope he pitches again sometime, but I'm not counting on him ever getting back to the majors.
25. OF Michael Taylor A+: .286, 17 R, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 3/5 SB, .286/.340/.429: Stock Up- Taylor came out of nowhere and started mashing Lakewood. He's too old to still be in the low minors, but after Stanford messed up his swing, he has some time to make adjustments. He's a big guy with a lot of power, and it would be a nice steal for the Phillies if he can find it as he advances through the system.
26. OF Matt Spencer N/A: See ya.
27. OF D'Arby Myers SS: 23/95, 12 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4/5 SB, .242/.301/.347: Stock Down- He's still very young, but I'm losing confidence in my favorite player in the system. He had a ton of problems at Lakewood, and he had to return to Williamsport when their season ended. However, he's running into problems there by not being able to build on last year's disappointing season there. He should be playing well in a league he's repeating, and I hope this is just because his wrist is still bothering him.
28. OF Quintin Berry A+: 107/396, 47 R, 3 HR, 34 RBI, .270/.349/.338: Stock Down- He's doing a little better than he was to start the year, but it's hard to be impressed with underacheiving 23 year olds in High A. He has great speed, but he's never going to show it if he can't get on base more or hit the ball in the gap.
29. RP Joe Bisenius AAA: 0-2, 7.50 ERA, 12 IP, 14 H, 11 BB, 9 K: Stock Down- After being sent down to Reading to possibly regain some confidence and command. He got his confidence back, but the latter has gotten worse. He's all over the strike zone, or ball zone, more accurately, and I'm not sure if he'll ever see a serious major league stint.
30. P Tyson Brummett AA: 2-3, 4.18 ERA, 51.2 IP, 50 H, 28 BB, 33 K: Stock Push- He turns 24 in just a couple of weeks, so it's kind of disappointing that he's just reaching Reading now. I don't want to discount the solid season he posted at Clearwater, but he doesn't have much of a major league future. He had good strikeout numbers way down at Lakewood, but that didn't translate to the higher levels.
(31) 31. P Freddy Ballestas SS: 3-3, 5.40 ERA, 43.1 IP, 48 H, 18 BB, 47 K: Stock down- His strikeout rate indicates he probably has pretty good stuff, but the way he gets hit around does not. At his age, he should probably a bit further along in the system than he is, but I also believe that this is his first year stateside. Maybe he'll put everything together in the next couple years, but I'm not expecting it.

Whew. That's the last 30, and here's the new one.

(1) 1. SP Carlos Carrasco AA
(6) 2. C Lou Marson AA
(4) 3. SP Kyle Drabek R
(8) 4. OF Dominic Brown A
(9) 5. SP J.A. Happ MLB
(3) 6. SP Joe Savery A+
(11) 7. SS Jason Donald AA
(5) 8. OF Greg Golson AA
(10) 9. SP Edgar Garcia AA
(NR) 10. OF Anthony Hewitt R
(16) 11. C Travis D'Arnaud SS
(22) 12. SP Drew Naylor A+
(25) 13. OF Michael Taylor A+
(NR) 14. OF Zach Collier R
(14) 15. SS Freddy Galvis A
(15) 16. C Jason Jaramillo AAA
(12) 17. SP Drew Carpenter AA
(NR) 18. SP Vance Worley A
(13) 19. SP Antonio Bastardo AA
(19) 20. 3B Travis Mattair A
(21) 21. SP Julian Sampson A
(18) 22. IF Brad Harman AA
(NR) 23. SP Justin De Fratus SS
(NR) 24. SP Jason Knapp R
(NR) 25. C Sebastian Valle R
(NR) 26. OF Steven Susdorf SS
(23) 27. 1B Michael Durant A
(NR) 28. SP Michael Stutes A
(30) 29. P Tyson Brummett AA
(NR) 30. C Tim Kennelly A
(NR) 31. OF Leandro Castro R

And that just took almost my entire day. Wow.

5/6 Prospect Power Rankings

This is an idea I thought of a few days ago, so I'm going to see how it goes. Basically, I'm going to take BaseballAmerica's top 31 list, and make adjustments to it based on how the prospect is doing. If I continue this in the future, adjustments will be made to the previously adjusted list. All stats are from before yesterday (and today's) action.

1. SP Carlos Carrasco AA: 2-2, 4.03 ERA, 29 IP, 28 H, 12 BB, 32 K: Stock Push: After a terrible transition to AA last season, Carrasco is making adjustments and improving. Although is hit rate is a tad higher than last year's, his command has been much better with more than a K an inning and fewer walks.
2. 2B Adrian Cardenas A+: 17/49, 5 R, 2 RBI, 1/1 SB, .347/.373/.408: Stock Push: A back injury has temporarily sidetracked Cardenas, who has not played in over two weeks. Prior to the injury, Cardenas was making good contact with the ball. Some extra base hits would be nice to see when he comes back.
3. SP Joe Savery A+: 1-2 2.92 ERA, 37 IP, 37 H, 14 BB, 31 K: Stock Up: His command has gotten better since last season, which was probably his biggest problem. He's been getting hit a bit more in the early going, but that's to be expected when making the jump to a new level. His K rate remains virtually the same.
4. SP Josh Outman AA: 1-2, 3.41 ERA, 29 IP, 33 H, 17 BB, 34 K: Stock Down: The big news of last week was Outman being moved to the bullpen, which has a significant impact on his stock. The Phillies apparently don't see a bright future for him. Even if they want Outman in the bullpen, it would still make sense to get him IP from the rotation to develop his pitches.
5. SP Kyle Drabek DL: N/A: Stock Down: He hasn't pitched, so he really can't improve. The Phillies still hope he can toss some innings later this year.
6. OF Dominic Brown A: 36/120, 16 R, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 8/9 SB, .300/.344/.392: Stock Push: Brown was a toolsy OF identified by BA this offseason. His value is still in tools and not performance yet. He's hitting for a high average, but it would be great if he could improve his SLG% a bit. He's probably going to become a leadoff-type guy, so the decline in BB rate isn't what you're looking for.
7. OF Greg Golson AA: 35/118, 19 R, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 10/13 SB, .297/.341/.441: Stock Up: Golson is one of the biggest mysteries in minor league baseball, but he's answering some questions this season. He's improving on last year's terrible AA stint and starting to remind the Phillies why they took him in the first round a few years ago. He still has some work to do, but he's experiencing success.
8. C Lou Marson AA: 26/79, 10 R, 13 RBI, 0/2 SB, .329/.437/.405: Stock Up: Marson was a HS draftee of the Phillies, and he's finally starting to break out. Recently, it was mentioned that he'll end up more of a #2 hitter, and his OBP with Reading proves it. He's never going to be a big HR guy, but he should hit a few doubles.
9. SP Drew Carpenter AA: 1-4, 6.25 ERA, 31.2 IP, 42 H, 17 BB, 22 K: Stock Down: Carpenter is a guy I've been high on for a while. I thought of the major pitching prospects in the organization, he would be the most likely callup because of his college experience and polish. Instead, he's struggling in AA. His rates aren't good and he has to turn it around quickly.
10. C Jason Jaramillo AAA: 18/95, 4 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, .189/.225/.274: Stock Down: He never profiled as more than a backup C, but this year has been brutal. It's his second year in AAA, and his season has been significantly worse. His performance at the plate has not even been close to acceptable.
11. SP JA Happ AAA: 0-4, 2.97 ERA, 39.1 IP, 30 H, 21 BB, 42 K: Stock Up: After battling some injury problems last season, Happ has rebounded a bit as a prospect. If he gets in control of his stuff, he could get back into the big picture. However, at 25 years old, he's running out of time.
12. SP Scott Mathieson DL: N/A: Stock Down: I'm not sure if he's ever going to pitch again, and it's a shame.
13. SS Freddy Galvis A: 16/101, 10 R, 4 RBI, 3/4 SB, .158/.239/.168: Stock Push: He's been brutal at the plate so far, but the dude is younger than I am. He's already playing in Low A, and that's impressive. He has an awesome glove, and he could become a player if he improves his bat.
14. SP Edgar Garcia A+: 4-0, 3.50 ERA, 36 IP, 37 H, 11 BB, 33 K: Stock Up: BaseballAmerica was high on Garcia prior to 2007, but his stock dipped a bit with a subpar performance at Lakewood. He seems to have gotten things straightened out with improved command and rates.
15. SS Jason Donald AA: 25/75, 12 R, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 4/6 SB, .333/.405/.440: Stock Up: BA probably wasn't high on Donald because of his lack of tools and age, but he's getting results in the minors. His ceiling might just be a utility player in the majors, but he can probably play a bunch of positions and has proven himself to be a decent hitter over the past year and a half.
16. C Travis d'Arnaud XST: N/A: Stock Down: Hopefully the next Lieberthal or whatever he was anointed can show some promise with Williamsport.
17. P Heitor Correa XST: N/A: Stock Down: What am I supposed to do with these guys who haven't played?
18. 3B Travis Mattair A: 21/99, 10 R, 8 RBI, 0/1 SB, .212/.291/.232: Stock Push: It's great that he was able to jump right to full season ball, but I have a feeling he'll be seeing some time with the Crosscutters when their season begins.
19. SP Julian Sampson A: 1-1, 7.18 ERA, 26.1 IP, 38 H, 16 BB, 16 K: Stock Push: He's still really young, and like Mattair, he'll probably be fitted for a Williamsport uniform at some point after June. Lakewood hasn't been kind to him.
20. IF Brad Harman (AA)MLB: 1/5, 1 R, 1 RBI, .200/.333/.400: Stock Push: He's on the active roster because he's the one guy we have on the 40 man roster. It's a good experience for him to be working with the ML coaches though.
21. OF D'Arby Myers A: 18/89, 11 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 5/5 SB, .202/.265/.281: Stock Down: After a very fast start in Williamsport last year, D'Arby has cooled off tremendously. He's still very young, and he could turn it around in the future.
22. SP Carlos Monsaterios A+: 2-2, 4.06 ERA, 31 IP, 28 H, 9 BB, 19 K: Stock Up: He's sidelined with an injury at the moment, but this is the guy that could potentially salvage the Phillies something from the Bobby Abreu trade.
23. OF Quintin Berry A+: 25/104, 6 R, 7 RBI, 9/11 SB, .240/.347/.279: Stock Down: It's easy to compare him to Michael Bourn because he's fast, but Berry will never be Bourn. He has a good eye at the plate, but he needs to put the ball in play more and get more base hits if he wants to continue to rise through the system.
24. RP Joe Bisenius (AAA)AA: 0-0, 3.00 ERA, 3 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K: Stock Down: His 2007 was unimpressive, and things haven't gotten much better in 08. His ceiling was already limited, and he's fighting an uphill battle at this point.
25. 2B Tyler Mach A/leave of absence: N/A: Stock Down: No idea what's going on here. Maybe he'll come back sometime. Frankly, I don't care. I wish him the best.
26. SP Antonio Bastardo (A+)AA: 1-0, 1.59 ERA, 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K: Stock Up: His gaudy numbers in Clearwater have everyone excited, and he hasn't lost since coming over to the states. That gets a big thumbs up in my book.
27. RP Mike Zagurski DL: N/A: Stock Down: He's not pitching this year, which obviously does not bode well for prospect status, which I'm not certain he had in the first place.
28. OF Matt Spencer A+: 35/118, 18 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 1/2 SB, .297/.361/.458: Stock Up: He was a college 2007 draftee, and he jumped all the way to Clearwater. He's proving to be worth the jump, and he could move through the system even faster soon.
29. SP Drew Naylor A: 2-2, 2.25 ERA, 44 IP, 32 H, 12 BB, 50 K: Stock Up: Naylor had a very good short season in Williamsport, and he's continuing to put up good numbers in full season ball. He should probably get more attention soon.
30. RP Lincoln Holdzkom Boston: He doesn't even play here anymore.
31. P Freddy Ballestas XST: N/A: Stock Down: I say stock down, but I'd have to come up with someone else to put here.

The new top 30:
(1) 1. SP Carlos Carrasco AA
(2) 2. 2B Adrian Cardenas A+
(3) 3. SP Joe Savery A+
(5) 4. SP Kyle Drabek DL
(7) 5. OF Greg Golson AA
(8) 6. C Lou Marson AA
(4) 7. P Josh Outman AA
(6) 8. OF Dominic Brown A
(11) 9. SP J.A. Happ AAA
(14) 10. SP Edgar Garcia A+
(15) 11. SS Jason Donald AA
(9) 12. SP Drew Carpenter AA
(26) 13. SP Antonio Bastardo AA
(13) 14. SS Freddy Galvis A
(10) 15. C Jason Jaramillo AAA
(16) 16. C Travis D'Arnaud XST
(17) 17. P Heitor Correa XST
(20) 18. IF Brad Harman MLB
(18) 19. 3B Travis Mattair A
(12) 20. SP Carlos Monasterios A+
(19) 21. SP Julian Sampson A
(29) 22. SP Drew Naylor A+
(NR) 23. 1B Michael Durant A
(12) 24. SP Scott Mathieson DL
(NR) 25. OF Michael Taylor A
(28) 26. OF Matt Spencer A+
(21) 27. OF D'Arby Myers A
(23) 28. OF Quintin Berry A+
(24) 29. RP Joe Bisenius AA
(NR) 30. P Tyson Brummett A+
(31) 31. P Freddy Ballestas XST

Somewhat relevant:
(25) 2B Tyler Mach ???
(27) RP Mike Zagurski DL
(NR) P Travis Blackley AAA
(NR) OF Jeremy Slayden AA
(NR) RP Robert Swindle AA
(NR) RP Pat Overholt AA
(NR) OF Gus Milner A+
(NR) P Chance Chapman A