Washington Capitals: 25-24-5, 55 points
Philadelphia Flyers: 30-17-5, 65 points
Olaf Kolzig v. Martin Biron
With their 3-2 win over Atlanta last night, the Flyers regained sole possession of first place in the Atlantic Division. This is the second game of their first of two back to backs this week, so the Flyers are going to be busy for the duration of the week.
Martin Biron will be back in net tonight. Niittymaki played well against Atlanta, which is par for the course for him, and hopefully Biron is still hot after having a few days off. Biron has been lit up by Washington this year, but he's received plenty of support. Despite having a GAA of nearly 4 against them in two starts, he's only 1-0-1.
The Capitals are 7-3-0 in their last 10 games, so this one definitely won't be easy. They're only one point behind Carolina and Atlanta, who are tied for the Southeastern Division lead, and they have two games in hand over both. They're also tied with Florida, who has one game in hand on the division leaders. This is pretty similar to the Atlantic, which has four contenders within 5 points of each other, with the Islanders not too far behind.
Obviously when you talk about Washington, you talk about Alexander Ovechkin. Last night, he scored two more goals, including an OT game winner. The man is unstoppable. No matter which player, which line, which system you match up against him, he's going to score goals. This is the case even moreso against the Flyers. In 11 career games, he has 11 goals and 20 points against Philadelphia. They just need to hope they can score goals to match Ovechkin and guys like Backstrom.
Tonight, Ron Hextall will be inducted into the Flyers Hall of Fame. I was there for Keith Primeau night last season against Detroit. It was a great moment, and I'm sure it will be the same for a good goalie and memorable player such as Hextall. It's been a while since we've had a goalie we could rely on to take a majority of the starts. Maybe he can suit up again.
Scratches from Bill Meltzer will come later.
I feel like I've done a poor job of reporting news lately. I'm going to try and get back to that soon.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Lincoln-Douglas Debates Of 2008: The Rotation
Both of those politicians may be long gone, but it doesn't mean they can debate Mets/Phillies from the grave. This will be the first of a three part series featuring lineup, rotation and bullpen comparisons. Who will win the NL East? In this heated election season, it's too close to call. If I do have any readers, now would be the time to chime in and post some comments. Let's get some debate and reader responses in. Pitchers and catchers have reported.
The aces: Johan Santana v. Cole Hamels
I chose to post these comparisons and begin with the rotation mostly because of this guy. I've already posted an entry of my thoughts on the trade, so I'm not going to get into that at all. The only thing Mets fans need to worry about in regards to Santana: is he wearing down? 2007 was his worst season since he began starting, but even then, he was one of the very best in baseball. His numbers were down across the board, including innings pitched. With all that being said, he's Johan Santana. Enough said. He's a two time Cy Young winner, and it was absolute highway robbery when Bartolo Colon and Mariano Rivera beat him just two years ago. He's in the prime of his career and has great stuff. Compared to other lefties, he has a very hard fastball, topping out at 94 or 95. His secondary stuff might be his best; his changeup is probably the best in baseball, he features a hard slider and his command is great. He's a big money pitcher and a big headache for batters.
However, the Phillies have a lefty of their own, and he's going to be great too. Cole Hamels took a few lumps in his first year in the majors in 2006, but he burst onto the scene as a top pitcher in 2007. In hitter-friendly Citizen's Bank Park, he managed to post a 3.39 ERA, good for 8th in the NL, and his ERA+ was actually better than Santana's. He too has great command and strikes out a lot of batters. He has a very good fastball topping out at 93-94, along with three offspeed pitches. He can use two different changeups to induce ground balls or strike batters out, and he has a developing curveball, which he used very effectively down the stretch. However, he doesn't come with no strings attached either. He's had injury problems in the past, and in 2007, they cropped up again, which really limited his innings and hurt the Phillies' staff. If he can stay injury free, which almost seems impossible at this point, he could contend for the strikeout title and win some hardware.
The edge: For 2008, I have to give it to Santana. In the long run, I think Cole Hamels is going to be the better pitcher, but Santana has been healthy and reliable for a few years now, while Cole doesn't have that track record yet.
These guys are good too: Pedro Martinez v. Brett Myers
It just seems like yesterday that Pedro Martinez helped Boston win their first World Series since 1918. Fast forward to 2007, and he's in his 4th year with the Mets. He threw 217 innings in 2005, but in 2006, the wheels started to come off. After a strong first two months, Pedro started getting hit and losing games. It was eventually discovered that he had a torn rotator cuff, among other injuries, that was hindering his performance. He finished with 132.2 IP in 2006. He rehabbed and worked his way back to the Mets late in 2007, when he posted a 2.57 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 5 starts. Obviously, health is the big issue with Pedro. He has always had injury problems, and it's the main reason why the Red Sox didn't re-sign this legend to the 4th year of a contract he's working on now. However, when healthy, Pedro is still great. He was dominant early in 2006 before getting hurt, and he looked good again in 2007. He's not as dominant and overpowering as he used to be, but he's smart and gets it done with his great offspeed stuff.
Things aren't all coming up Myers either. He had a down year in 2007, and it was also a very unique season. After three starts, one very good, two bad, he was moved to the bullpen for an overall lack of quality and injuries with the current relievers. This was a controversial decision: did it pay off? They ended up winning the division, but his future definitely lies in the rotation, whether he likes it or not. He has great stuff and is best served pitching 6 innings a game. Anyway, he suffered a serious shoulder injury in May, but eventually came back and pitched well down the stretch. His ERA was way up because of an increased walk rate, but his hit and K rates remained strong. One other question about Myers; how good is he? He had two very good years as a starter, posting 3.72 and 3.91 ERAs in 2005 and 2006. He's still young and is just entering his prime, but his 2007 kind of made it hard to project what he's going to do down the road. He has a great fastball and a great curveball, as well as some other secondary pitches. Hopefully he stays healthy and contributes positively, the way all Phillies fans know he can.
The edge: Will Pedro Martinez start 30 games? Your answer to that determines who wins this one. If he does, he'll be more valuable than Myers. If he's hurt and misses too many starts, Myers gets the edge. I think Pedro will make a relatively smooth return this year, so chalk up another one to the Mets.
Sink or swim? John Maine v. Kyle Kendrick
John Maine was somewhat surprising in 2007. He's a bit of a late bloomer; he was a college draftee in 2002, and he didn't start 30 games until he was 26 in 2007. He was always pretty good in the minors. At one point, he was a top 10 prospect with Baltimore, but when he reached AAA and the majors, he stopped showing any promise. The Orioles threw him in a trade to the Mets to land Kris Benson, and things didn't exactly work out. Maine pitched very well in 15 starts for the Mets in 2006, and used that as a springboard for a strong start to 2007. He had a 10-4 record and 2.71 ERA before the All-Star Break, and he probably should've been an All-Star. However, Maine was awful in the second half. He only won 5 games and had a 5.53 ERA. His challenge for 2008 is pitching well an entire season. He has to prove that the first half wasn't a fluke, and that he's not the pitcher that peaked in AA with Baltimore. He has alright stuff, and he needs to stay in command. He's always had pretty good hit and K rates, but when his walks go up, he gets into trouble.
Kyle Kendrick was another surprise. He was drafted out of HS in 2003 and stumbled through the minors. He was 5-16 in his first full year of pro ball, and things didn't get any better in 2005. In 2006, not developing and still in A ball, he finally put together, posting 2.15 and 3.53 ERAs at Lakewood and Clearwater respectively. In 2007, he started the season at Reading, where he had a 3.21 ERA in 12 starts. He was finally showing the promise the Phillies thought he had when they drafted him, when injuries began to hit the ML squad. The Phillies had a choice. They could call up an injured J.A. Happ, a struggling Zack Segovia, or this kid in AA. Fortunately for the Phillies, they chose Kendrick. He pitched to the tune of a 3.87 ERA, a much needed boost for a rotation that was in turmoil. Was it a fluke? He was a late bloomer in the minors, so a lot of people question how good he actually is. His peripherals have always been okay. He sits around a hit an inning, but he doesn't strike batters out. He counters this by getting a lot of ground balls and not walking guys, and keeping the ball on the ground is huge at CBP. He has to prove that he's in the majors to stay and not just a flash in the pan. Hopefully for the Phillies, his good 2 seam fastball allows him to have success again.
The edge: Know what? Call me krazy, but I'll take Kendrick. Maine's second half was absolutely terrifying, and I think it's more likely that Kendrick repeats his 2007.
The Young guns: Orlando Hernandez v. Jamie Moyer
I probably shouldn't do this, but I wanted to match up the old guys. Oliver Perez will probably be the Mets' 4th starter. Nevertheless, when the Mets dealt Jorge Julio to Arizona for Orlando Hernandez last May, they made quite a deal. After struggling to find the touch that made him a reliable starter for the Yankees in one year plus with the White Sox and Diamondbacks, El Duque has turned it around back in New York. His deceptive delivery and breaking stuff allowed him to post a 4.09 ERA with the Mets in 20 2006 starts and 3.72 ERA in 24 2007 starts. However, injuries always seem to be the name of the game for this guy. He only managed to throw 147.2 innings last season, and he's only thrown 200 once in his career. Throw in the fact that he's listed as 42 years old, and you have to wonder how well he's going to hold up. One other issue that can creep up time to time is his command. He walks a few too many sometimes, and it's important to stay patient against him and not swing out of your shoes in your AB's against him.
Jamie Moyer, the only pitcher in history to cash a paycheck and social security check on the same day, is back for what might be his last season in 2008. Despite his age, he was the only Phillies starter to make all of his starts last year, and he hasn't had physical problems in a long time, and his great mechanics can account for that. His mechanics and deception have allowed him to remain in the game for a long time. For a guy who doesn't have great stuff at all, Moyer has done a great job of making adjustments to stay one step ahead of everyone. However, he needs to bounce back from his poor second half. He had ERA's over 6 in both July and August, after a strong start to the season and two months of 2006. His last two starts of the season, the division clincher against Washington and game 3 against Colorado, were encouraging though. After another offseason of hard work, I'm sure he'll be ready to do one or two things differently to gain an edge again. His lessons for the younger pitchers are invaluable, and he has a spot on this team as long as he wants.
The edge: He's definitely a sentimental favorite, but Jamie Moyer just isn't that good anymore. He really struggled for half the season last year, and I really hope he's not done. Orlando Hernandez will just be a better pitcher this year, if he's healthy.
Rounding it out: Oliver Perez v. Adam Eaton
Oliver Perez had a re-breakout year in 2007, when he had a 3.56 ERA, after two straight terrible seasons. It's a re-breakout because of the bar he set himself in 2004 with the Pirates, when he showed a lot of promise by posting a 2.98 ERA in 30 starts. However, his stock soon plummeted when he posted an ERA nearly three runs higher than that in 2005. His stuff has always been great. His fastball is electric and he has a great slider, but he has a tough time putting it altogether. He can't command the strike zone, and he's prone to games where he just gives way too many free passes. I'm in the camp that Oliver Perez is going to look more like the 2005 or 2006 versions of himself rather than the 2004 or even 2007 versions. However, his season definitely won't be one of the extremes. He'll be in the high 3's or low 4's in terms of ERA and pitching another season in Shea will benefit him. This guy had loads of potential, and if he somehow reaches it, the Mets will have one of the best rotation's in the league.
I'm going to go on the record right now and say Adam Eaton will not be as bad as last season. Is it even possible? Last season's struggles were so far out of line from the rest of his career. I still don't think he'll make a positive contribution, but at the very least, it won't be as negative. And he can still kick the Mets' asses every day of the week.
The edge: Oliver Perez isn't Adam Eaton
So it appears that the Mets have the better rotation. That doesn't mean that'll necessarily be true when March 31st rolls around. As you saw with a number of the players, there are a lot of variables that could drastically alter results. Will they stay healthy? Was their most recent performance a fluke? You just never know, but at this point in time, I'd say the Mets have the better rotation.
However, for all this talk about the Phillies and the Mets, there's one other serious contender in the division, and they have some arms to brag about too. The Braves rotation is led by John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, who won them a lot of games last year. The problem with Atlanta last year was getting consistency besides them. Chuck James has alright potential, but he might have shoulder issues lingering from last year. Tom Glavine was added, but how much does he have left in the tank? Can Reyes or Jurrjens step up and solidify the back end of the rotation. They have their own questions to answer.
The aces: Johan Santana v. Cole Hamels
I chose to post these comparisons and begin with the rotation mostly because of this guy. I've already posted an entry of my thoughts on the trade, so I'm not going to get into that at all. The only thing Mets fans need to worry about in regards to Santana: is he wearing down? 2007 was his worst season since he began starting, but even then, he was one of the very best in baseball. His numbers were down across the board, including innings pitched. With all that being said, he's Johan Santana. Enough said. He's a two time Cy Young winner, and it was absolute highway robbery when Bartolo Colon and Mariano Rivera beat him just two years ago. He's in the prime of his career and has great stuff. Compared to other lefties, he has a very hard fastball, topping out at 94 or 95. His secondary stuff might be his best; his changeup is probably the best in baseball, he features a hard slider and his command is great. He's a big money pitcher and a big headache for batters.
However, the Phillies have a lefty of their own, and he's going to be great too. Cole Hamels took a few lumps in his first year in the majors in 2006, but he burst onto the scene as a top pitcher in 2007. In hitter-friendly Citizen's Bank Park, he managed to post a 3.39 ERA, good for 8th in the NL, and his ERA+ was actually better than Santana's. He too has great command and strikes out a lot of batters. He has a very good fastball topping out at 93-94, along with three offspeed pitches. He can use two different changeups to induce ground balls or strike batters out, and he has a developing curveball, which he used very effectively down the stretch. However, he doesn't come with no strings attached either. He's had injury problems in the past, and in 2007, they cropped up again, which really limited his innings and hurt the Phillies' staff. If he can stay injury free, which almost seems impossible at this point, he could contend for the strikeout title and win some hardware.
The edge: For 2008, I have to give it to Santana. In the long run, I think Cole Hamels is going to be the better pitcher, but Santana has been healthy and reliable for a few years now, while Cole doesn't have that track record yet.
These guys are good too: Pedro Martinez v. Brett Myers
It just seems like yesterday that Pedro Martinez helped Boston win their first World Series since 1918. Fast forward to 2007, and he's in his 4th year with the Mets. He threw 217 innings in 2005, but in 2006, the wheels started to come off. After a strong first two months, Pedro started getting hit and losing games. It was eventually discovered that he had a torn rotator cuff, among other injuries, that was hindering his performance. He finished with 132.2 IP in 2006. He rehabbed and worked his way back to the Mets late in 2007, when he posted a 2.57 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 5 starts. Obviously, health is the big issue with Pedro. He has always had injury problems, and it's the main reason why the Red Sox didn't re-sign this legend to the 4th year of a contract he's working on now. However, when healthy, Pedro is still great. He was dominant early in 2006 before getting hurt, and he looked good again in 2007. He's not as dominant and overpowering as he used to be, but he's smart and gets it done with his great offspeed stuff.
Things aren't all coming up Myers either. He had a down year in 2007, and it was also a very unique season. After three starts, one very good, two bad, he was moved to the bullpen for an overall lack of quality and injuries with the current relievers. This was a controversial decision: did it pay off? They ended up winning the division, but his future definitely lies in the rotation, whether he likes it or not. He has great stuff and is best served pitching 6 innings a game. Anyway, he suffered a serious shoulder injury in May, but eventually came back and pitched well down the stretch. His ERA was way up because of an increased walk rate, but his hit and K rates remained strong. One other question about Myers; how good is he? He had two very good years as a starter, posting 3.72 and 3.91 ERAs in 2005 and 2006. He's still young and is just entering his prime, but his 2007 kind of made it hard to project what he's going to do down the road. He has a great fastball and a great curveball, as well as some other secondary pitches. Hopefully he stays healthy and contributes positively, the way all Phillies fans know he can.
The edge: Will Pedro Martinez start 30 games? Your answer to that determines who wins this one. If he does, he'll be more valuable than Myers. If he's hurt and misses too many starts, Myers gets the edge. I think Pedro will make a relatively smooth return this year, so chalk up another one to the Mets.
Sink or swim? John Maine v. Kyle Kendrick
John Maine was somewhat surprising in 2007. He's a bit of a late bloomer; he was a college draftee in 2002, and he didn't start 30 games until he was 26 in 2007. He was always pretty good in the minors. At one point, he was a top 10 prospect with Baltimore, but when he reached AAA and the majors, he stopped showing any promise. The Orioles threw him in a trade to the Mets to land Kris Benson, and things didn't exactly work out. Maine pitched very well in 15 starts for the Mets in 2006, and used that as a springboard for a strong start to 2007. He had a 10-4 record and 2.71 ERA before the All-Star Break, and he probably should've been an All-Star. However, Maine was awful in the second half. He only won 5 games and had a 5.53 ERA. His challenge for 2008 is pitching well an entire season. He has to prove that the first half wasn't a fluke, and that he's not the pitcher that peaked in AA with Baltimore. He has alright stuff, and he needs to stay in command. He's always had pretty good hit and K rates, but when his walks go up, he gets into trouble.
Kyle Kendrick was another surprise. He was drafted out of HS in 2003 and stumbled through the minors. He was 5-16 in his first full year of pro ball, and things didn't get any better in 2005. In 2006, not developing and still in A ball, he finally put together, posting 2.15 and 3.53 ERAs at Lakewood and Clearwater respectively. In 2007, he started the season at Reading, where he had a 3.21 ERA in 12 starts. He was finally showing the promise the Phillies thought he had when they drafted him, when injuries began to hit the ML squad. The Phillies had a choice. They could call up an injured J.A. Happ, a struggling Zack Segovia, or this kid in AA. Fortunately for the Phillies, they chose Kendrick. He pitched to the tune of a 3.87 ERA, a much needed boost for a rotation that was in turmoil. Was it a fluke? He was a late bloomer in the minors, so a lot of people question how good he actually is. His peripherals have always been okay. He sits around a hit an inning, but he doesn't strike batters out. He counters this by getting a lot of ground balls and not walking guys, and keeping the ball on the ground is huge at CBP. He has to prove that he's in the majors to stay and not just a flash in the pan. Hopefully for the Phillies, his good 2 seam fastball allows him to have success again.
The edge: Know what? Call me krazy, but I'll take Kendrick. Maine's second half was absolutely terrifying, and I think it's more likely that Kendrick repeats his 2007.
The Young guns: Orlando Hernandez v. Jamie Moyer
I probably shouldn't do this, but I wanted to match up the old guys. Oliver Perez will probably be the Mets' 4th starter. Nevertheless, when the Mets dealt Jorge Julio to Arizona for Orlando Hernandez last May, they made quite a deal. After struggling to find the touch that made him a reliable starter for the Yankees in one year plus with the White Sox and Diamondbacks, El Duque has turned it around back in New York. His deceptive delivery and breaking stuff allowed him to post a 4.09 ERA with the Mets in 20 2006 starts and 3.72 ERA in 24 2007 starts. However, injuries always seem to be the name of the game for this guy. He only managed to throw 147.2 innings last season, and he's only thrown 200 once in his career. Throw in the fact that he's listed as 42 years old, and you have to wonder how well he's going to hold up. One other issue that can creep up time to time is his command. He walks a few too many sometimes, and it's important to stay patient against him and not swing out of your shoes in your AB's against him.
Jamie Moyer, the only pitcher in history to cash a paycheck and social security check on the same day, is back for what might be his last season in 2008. Despite his age, he was the only Phillies starter to make all of his starts last year, and he hasn't had physical problems in a long time, and his great mechanics can account for that. His mechanics and deception have allowed him to remain in the game for a long time. For a guy who doesn't have great stuff at all, Moyer has done a great job of making adjustments to stay one step ahead of everyone. However, he needs to bounce back from his poor second half. He had ERA's over 6 in both July and August, after a strong start to the season and two months of 2006. His last two starts of the season, the division clincher against Washington and game 3 against Colorado, were encouraging though. After another offseason of hard work, I'm sure he'll be ready to do one or two things differently to gain an edge again. His lessons for the younger pitchers are invaluable, and he has a spot on this team as long as he wants.
The edge: He's definitely a sentimental favorite, but Jamie Moyer just isn't that good anymore. He really struggled for half the season last year, and I really hope he's not done. Orlando Hernandez will just be a better pitcher this year, if he's healthy.
Rounding it out: Oliver Perez v. Adam Eaton
Oliver Perez had a re-breakout year in 2007, when he had a 3.56 ERA, after two straight terrible seasons. It's a re-breakout because of the bar he set himself in 2004 with the Pirates, when he showed a lot of promise by posting a 2.98 ERA in 30 starts. However, his stock soon plummeted when he posted an ERA nearly three runs higher than that in 2005. His stuff has always been great. His fastball is electric and he has a great slider, but he has a tough time putting it altogether. He can't command the strike zone, and he's prone to games where he just gives way too many free passes. I'm in the camp that Oliver Perez is going to look more like the 2005 or 2006 versions of himself rather than the 2004 or even 2007 versions. However, his season definitely won't be one of the extremes. He'll be in the high 3's or low 4's in terms of ERA and pitching another season in Shea will benefit him. This guy had loads of potential, and if he somehow reaches it, the Mets will have one of the best rotation's in the league.
I'm going to go on the record right now and say Adam Eaton will not be as bad as last season. Is it even possible? Last season's struggles were so far out of line from the rest of his career. I still don't think he'll make a positive contribution, but at the very least, it won't be as negative. And he can still kick the Mets' asses every day of the week.
The edge: Oliver Perez isn't Adam Eaton
So it appears that the Mets have the better rotation. That doesn't mean that'll necessarily be true when March 31st rolls around. As you saw with a number of the players, there are a lot of variables that could drastically alter results. Will they stay healthy? Was their most recent performance a fluke? You just never know, but at this point in time, I'd say the Mets have the better rotation.
However, for all this talk about the Phillies and the Mets, there's one other serious contender in the division, and they have some arms to brag about too. The Braves rotation is led by John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, who won them a lot of games last year. The problem with Atlanta last year was getting consistency besides them. Chuck James has alright potential, but he might have shoulder issues lingering from last year. Tom Glavine was added, but how much does he have left in the tank? Can Reyes or Jurrjens step up and solidify the back end of the rotation. They have their own questions to answer.
Game 52: Flyers at Thrashers
Philadelphia Flyers: 29-17-5, 63 points
Atlanta Thrashers: 26-25-4, 56 points
Antero Nittymaki v. Kari Lehtonen
The Flyers temporarily hit the road tonight, when they follow in the 76ers footsteps and travel down to Atlanta before coming back home to face Washington tomorrow. The Flyers got a couple days off after the very physical 3-0 win over Anaheim before their busy schedule for the rest of the week, including games against Washington tomorrow and the Rangers this weekend.
Antero Nittymaki is back in net tonight. Although Martin Biron played well in the shutout of Anaheim, Niitty has Atlanta's number. In 7 career games against the Thrashers, he's 7-0-0 with a 1.58 Goals Against Average, stopping shots at a .947 clip. Biron should still have momentum from his game against the Ducks when he starts tomorrow. Kari Let'emin? Against the Flyers, it seems that way. Against the Flyers, he's 0-4-0 with a 3.31 GAA. Against Niittymaki, he's never won in pro hockey. I don't put too much stock in that last one, but I feel obligated to mention it.
The Thrashers just seem to get dominated by the Flyers. In two losses this year, Atlanta has been outscored 8-1. Last season, they got swept, even though the Flyers were the worst team in hockey. In fact, you'd have to go back to November of 2005 to find the last time the Thrashers have defeated the Flyers. It's the only time they've done that since the lockout.
Fortunately for the Flyers, it appears that Ilya Kovalchuk will again be out of the lineup. He has 13 goals in 22 career games against Philadelphia, and he's a threat to score every time he touches the puck. They've still rattled off three straight even without him, so despite their early season struggles, the Thrashers are doing well for themselves right now.
As per usual, Bill Meltzer has the scratches. Honestly, why would you even read this blog when I link to his regularly? He does a lot of great stuff and Flyers fans can't thank him enough for what he posts.
Lasse Kukkonen
Joffrey Lupul
Rory Fitzpatrick
Mike Rathje
Atlanta Thrashers: 26-25-4, 56 points
Antero Nittymaki v. Kari Lehtonen
The Flyers temporarily hit the road tonight, when they follow in the 76ers footsteps and travel down to Atlanta before coming back home to face Washington tomorrow. The Flyers got a couple days off after the very physical 3-0 win over Anaheim before their busy schedule for the rest of the week, including games against Washington tomorrow and the Rangers this weekend.
Antero Nittymaki is back in net tonight. Although Martin Biron played well in the shutout of Anaheim, Niitty has Atlanta's number. In 7 career games against the Thrashers, he's 7-0-0 with a 1.58 Goals Against Average, stopping shots at a .947 clip. Biron should still have momentum from his game against the Ducks when he starts tomorrow. Kari Let'emin? Against the Flyers, it seems that way. Against the Flyers, he's 0-4-0 with a 3.31 GAA. Against Niittymaki, he's never won in pro hockey. I don't put too much stock in that last one, but I feel obligated to mention it.
The Thrashers just seem to get dominated by the Flyers. In two losses this year, Atlanta has been outscored 8-1. Last season, they got swept, even though the Flyers were the worst team in hockey. In fact, you'd have to go back to November of 2005 to find the last time the Thrashers have defeated the Flyers. It's the only time they've done that since the lockout.
Fortunately for the Flyers, it appears that Ilya Kovalchuk will again be out of the lineup. He has 13 goals in 22 career games against Philadelphia, and he's a threat to score every time he touches the puck. They've still rattled off three straight even without him, so despite their early season struggles, the Thrashers are doing well for themselves right now.
As per usual, Bill Meltzer has the scratches. Honestly, why would you even read this blog when I link to his regularly? He does a lot of great stuff and Flyers fans can't thank him enough for what he posts.
Lasse Kukkonen
Joffrey Lupul
Rory Fitzpatrick
Mike Rathje
Monday, February 4, 2008
Flyers Thoughts From Saturday's Game
Obviously this is a bit late getting up, but better late than never.
I got there right as the gates opened, which was cool for a couple reasons. First, we all got to see Bernie Parent enter the building through a special entrance, but we didn't realize it until several hours later. Second, the food lines are short. Third, I got to enjoy all the stuff the Flyers put on the video board before the game. Was it enjoyable? No. I don't care about the Staals and Dennis Seidenberg riding a go-kart. Does it beat the Phillies showing This Week In Baseball Episodes from 5+ years ago? Maybe. Finally, Scott Hartnell in warmups. Hilarious. It's like he can't score a goal from five feet away from the net and he knows it. Instead of skating in and participating in most of the warmup drills, he'll stand in the crease and clean up the rebounds just like he would in the game.
The seats were great. It's the first time I've been on the lower level, and even though it was tough to see what was going on at the other end of the ice, it was a lot of fun. It's almost tough to appreciate how big and how fast the players are until you're almost on the ice with them.
Am I a bad fan for not even attempting to throw my hat on the ice? If I'm in the wrong here, maybe I should stop trying to justify it, but let's take a look at the situation. I was in the 20th row right behind the net. I had no shot at getting my hat on the ice. I paid $15, $20 for it. Why waste it if I have no shot at getting that hat cleared away by the ice girls? And honestly, the first goal should've been Hatch's. He had such a great game.
The game was well played and the refs did a good job of keeping in control of their whistles. These were two physical teams, and it wouldn't be fair to the players or the fans to get them away from the way they like to play hockey. There were a lot of big hits for both sides, some nice scrums, and that's what you'd expect from the two toughest teams in the NHL.
I kind of feel cheated after seeing my first live fight. It featured the best each team has to offer, but Cote didn't have his best day. He was dropped almost immediately, despite landing a couple punches. Parros was in control from the moment they dropped the gloves, and he's one helluva fighter.
I'm looking forward to going to another game soon. I know I'll be invading Long Island soon, but a playoff game at the Wachovia Center would really be sweet.
I got there right as the gates opened, which was cool for a couple reasons. First, we all got to see Bernie Parent enter the building through a special entrance, but we didn't realize it until several hours later. Second, the food lines are short. Third, I got to enjoy all the stuff the Flyers put on the video board before the game. Was it enjoyable? No. I don't care about the Staals and Dennis Seidenberg riding a go-kart. Does it beat the Phillies showing This Week In Baseball Episodes from 5+ years ago? Maybe. Finally, Scott Hartnell in warmups. Hilarious. It's like he can't score a goal from five feet away from the net and he knows it. Instead of skating in and participating in most of the warmup drills, he'll stand in the crease and clean up the rebounds just like he would in the game.
The seats were great. It's the first time I've been on the lower level, and even though it was tough to see what was going on at the other end of the ice, it was a lot of fun. It's almost tough to appreciate how big and how fast the players are until you're almost on the ice with them.
Am I a bad fan for not even attempting to throw my hat on the ice? If I'm in the wrong here, maybe I should stop trying to justify it, but let's take a look at the situation. I was in the 20th row right behind the net. I had no shot at getting my hat on the ice. I paid $15, $20 for it. Why waste it if I have no shot at getting that hat cleared away by the ice girls? And honestly, the first goal should've been Hatch's. He had such a great game.
The game was well played and the refs did a good job of keeping in control of their whistles. These were two physical teams, and it wouldn't be fair to the players or the fans to get them away from the way they like to play hockey. There were a lot of big hits for both sides, some nice scrums, and that's what you'd expect from the two toughest teams in the NHL.
I kind of feel cheated after seeing my first live fight. It featured the best each team has to offer, but Cote didn't have his best day. He was dropped almost immediately, despite landing a couple punches. Parros was in control from the moment they dropped the gloves, and he's one helluva fighter.
I'm looking forward to going to another game soon. I know I'll be invading Long Island soon, but a playoff game at the Wachovia Center would really be sweet.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
The Perfect Game
Earlier this afternoon, I outlined what the Patriots and Giants would each have to do to win the game. I then made a horrible prediction. What went wrong?
Everything.
I said the Patriots would need to execute offensively and pressure Eli Manning. They didn't. Tom Brady missed on a lot of throws, and I'm fairly certain that Laurence Maroney didn't come out of the locker room at halftime. The Offensive Line had very poor protection and really cost the Patriots the game. Guys like Light, Mankins and the Pro Bowl line, who were very reliable in the regular season, completely broke down. The Giants' Offensive Line, however, tightened up and played great. The Patriots stopped getting any pressure on Eli and allowed him to score touchdowns and become MVP.
I can't say enough about how well the Giants played. I can't believe it. Coming into this season, I didn't think they would even win 6 games. When they started playing well in October, I figured they would blow it at the end. When they clinched a playoff berth, I thought they would be sent home packing again. When they beat the Bucs, I figured they would be one and done. They weren't. They weren't any of these things. In the end, they proved they were a great team. And it's thanks to #10, who proved a lot of people wrong tonight.
Even in the late stages of the 4th quarter, I figured Eli Manning would screw up. He always has before, right? There's no way he would get it done on the biggest stage. Then he did. It wasn't just any drive that ended in an eventual winning touchdown. There were only a few minutes left on the clock. If the Giants didn't score on that drive, they're not going to get the ball back. Not only did he put his team up with 35 seconds left, he was part of a signature, classic play that's going to be shown thousands of times for eternity. Under rare incredible pressure from the New England blitz, Eli somehow stays on his feet, spins away from the pressure, and throws up a pass to David Tyree, a mostly special teams player, who holds the ball against his helmet with one hand and finally secures the catch as he hits the ground. Unbelievable.
Except for the one turnover and Corey Webster falling down, they truly played the perfect game. The defense was suffocating. Eli led his offense down the field and used just about every weapon he had to outscore the Patriots. It was a well played game with one quarter that really stood out. Congratulations to the Giants, as much as I hate to say it. I guess it's pretty hard to buy a home in Mercury Morris' neighborhood.
Everything.
I said the Patriots would need to execute offensively and pressure Eli Manning. They didn't. Tom Brady missed on a lot of throws, and I'm fairly certain that Laurence Maroney didn't come out of the locker room at halftime. The Offensive Line had very poor protection and really cost the Patriots the game. Guys like Light, Mankins and the Pro Bowl line, who were very reliable in the regular season, completely broke down. The Giants' Offensive Line, however, tightened up and played great. The Patriots stopped getting any pressure on Eli and allowed him to score touchdowns and become MVP.
I can't say enough about how well the Giants played. I can't believe it. Coming into this season, I didn't think they would even win 6 games. When they started playing well in October, I figured they would blow it at the end. When they clinched a playoff berth, I thought they would be sent home packing again. When they beat the Bucs, I figured they would be one and done. They weren't. They weren't any of these things. In the end, they proved they were a great team. And it's thanks to #10, who proved a lot of people wrong tonight.
Even in the late stages of the 4th quarter, I figured Eli Manning would screw up. He always has before, right? There's no way he would get it done on the biggest stage. Then he did. It wasn't just any drive that ended in an eventual winning touchdown. There were only a few minutes left on the clock. If the Giants didn't score on that drive, they're not going to get the ball back. Not only did he put his team up with 35 seconds left, he was part of a signature, classic play that's going to be shown thousands of times for eternity. Under rare incredible pressure from the New England blitz, Eli somehow stays on his feet, spins away from the pressure, and throws up a pass to David Tyree, a mostly special teams player, who holds the ball against his helmet with one hand and finally secures the catch as he hits the ground. Unbelievable.
Except for the one turnover and Corey Webster falling down, they truly played the perfect game. The defense was suffocating. Eli led his offense down the field and used just about every weapon he had to outscore the Patriots. It was a well played game with one quarter that really stood out. Congratulations to the Giants, as much as I hate to say it. I guess it's pretty hard to buy a home in Mercury Morris' neighborhood.
Super Bowl Sunday- The Prediction
Move over Clayton, Mortensen, Bradshaw and all of the other pundits. It's my turn.
What do the Patriots need to do to win?
They can't make mistakes like Favre and the Packers did. Favre threw a key pick in OT (sound familiar?) and cost Green Bay the game. Tom Brady needs to make sure the offense executes, whether it's short passes dissecting the defense or big plays to Moss. The Packers offense was not good in the second half, and they really didn't play a complete game. The Patriots offense cannot go into a lull like Green Bay because the Giants have shown they can chip away and take advantage.
Defensively, they have to pressure Eli Manning. I've already said that several times, but hitting him and putting your hands up makes him make poor throws. He also tends to fumble, so it can be a great way to collect turnovers and give the dangerous Patriots offense a short field. They also need to play physical with Plaxico Burress. He's going to be healthy enough to play like he has all year, but the ankle could still be tender.
What do the Giants need to do to win?
What people have said 18 other teams need to do to beat New England. They have to play a perfect game. You can live with one turnover, maybe two, but Eli and the offense cannot give the ball back to them over and over again. Look at A.J. Feeley and Kyle Boller as examples. They played efficient, they completed a lot of passes, and they kept their offense on the field. However, they each threw at least one critical interception that took points off the board and hurt their teams' chances of winning.
Tom Brady has to be hit. Over and over again. For the Giants, this shouldn't be a problem. They racked up a ton of sacks in the regular season, and they have a lot of guys that can put great pressure on the QB. The only question about the Giants' defense is their gameplan. In the regular season, they were an aggressive blitzing team. In the postseason, they've preferred to hang back and help out their banged up secondary in coverage. That won't fly against the Patriots if their front four cannot sustain pressure. They need to blitz early and often and disrupt the timing of the Patriots.
With all of that being said, I'm not expecting a close game. I'll go with 35-17 Patriots, with Brady claiming his 3rd Super Bowl MVP. In his acceptance speech, he'll announce that his ankle has never been better and the boot was just a ploy to create more hype.
What do the Patriots need to do to win?
They can't make mistakes like Favre and the Packers did. Favre threw a key pick in OT (sound familiar?) and cost Green Bay the game. Tom Brady needs to make sure the offense executes, whether it's short passes dissecting the defense or big plays to Moss. The Packers offense was not good in the second half, and they really didn't play a complete game. The Patriots offense cannot go into a lull like Green Bay because the Giants have shown they can chip away and take advantage.
Defensively, they have to pressure Eli Manning. I've already said that several times, but hitting him and putting your hands up makes him make poor throws. He also tends to fumble, so it can be a great way to collect turnovers and give the dangerous Patriots offense a short field. They also need to play physical with Plaxico Burress. He's going to be healthy enough to play like he has all year, but the ankle could still be tender.
What do the Giants need to do to win?
What people have said 18 other teams need to do to beat New England. They have to play a perfect game. You can live with one turnover, maybe two, but Eli and the offense cannot give the ball back to them over and over again. Look at A.J. Feeley and Kyle Boller as examples. They played efficient, they completed a lot of passes, and they kept their offense on the field. However, they each threw at least one critical interception that took points off the board and hurt their teams' chances of winning.
Tom Brady has to be hit. Over and over again. For the Giants, this shouldn't be a problem. They racked up a ton of sacks in the regular season, and they have a lot of guys that can put great pressure on the QB. The only question about the Giants' defense is their gameplan. In the regular season, they were an aggressive blitzing team. In the postseason, they've preferred to hang back and help out their banged up secondary in coverage. That won't fly against the Patriots if their front four cannot sustain pressure. They need to blitz early and often and disrupt the timing of the Patriots.
With all of that being said, I'm not expecting a close game. I'll go with 35-17 Patriots, with Brady claiming his 3rd Super Bowl MVP. In his acceptance speech, he'll announce that his ankle has never been better and the boot was just a ploy to create more hype.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Super Bowl Saturday
In this (cheap) edition, I'll talk about two less-heralded players that could make a difference on Sunday.
Kevin Boss, TE, New York Giants: Boss has played well filling in for the injured Jeremy Shockey, placed on IR with a broken league. Although he was just a late round pick in the 2007 draft, he has proved to be a big and reliable target for Eli Manning. When Shockey was still on the field, Boss was also used in two Tight End sets and proved to be a decent blocker, so he's a good all-around player and a nice pick by the Giants. Late in the season, teams tried beating the Patriots by attacking the middle of the field, and Boss can help New York do that.
Junior Seau, MLB, New England Patriots: I already touched on this in yesterday's Super Bowl entry, but Seau could really help out the Pats tomorrow. New England will probably look to attack the interior of the Giants' O-Line and get pressure in Eli's face. Vince Wilfork's a good pass rusher for a guy his size in his own right, but using Bruschi and Seau in blitz packages could be effective. The Giants will probably be worried about Adalius Thomas and Miek Vrabel on the outside, but Manning will need a nice pocket and room to step into his throws to have success.
Kevin Boss, TE, New York Giants: Boss has played well filling in for the injured Jeremy Shockey, placed on IR with a broken league. Although he was just a late round pick in the 2007 draft, he has proved to be a big and reliable target for Eli Manning. When Shockey was still on the field, Boss was also used in two Tight End sets and proved to be a decent blocker, so he's a good all-around player and a nice pick by the Giants. Late in the season, teams tried beating the Patriots by attacking the middle of the field, and Boss can help New York do that.
Junior Seau, MLB, New England Patriots: I already touched on this in yesterday's Super Bowl entry, but Seau could really help out the Pats tomorrow. New England will probably look to attack the interior of the Giants' O-Line and get pressure in Eli's face. Vince Wilfork's a good pass rusher for a guy his size in his own right, but using Bruschi and Seau in blitz packages could be effective. The Giants will probably be worried about Adalius Thomas and Miek Vrabel on the outside, but Manning will need a nice pocket and room to step into his throws to have success.
Game 51: Ducks at Flyers
Anaheim Ducks: 27-21-7, 61 points
Philadelphia Flyers: 28-16-5, 61 points
Jean-Sebastien Giguere v. Martin Biron (not positive on Jiggy; Jonas Hiller typically starts during back to backs, but J.S. was great last night.)
The Flyers will take the ice for the first time after their embarrassing 4-0 loss at the hands of the Rangers on Thursday night. They had Friday off, which is something John Stevens typically doesn't do, so the Flyers potentially coming out a bit sluggish is something to look out for. They played an all-around awful game against New York; they didn't sustain any offensive pressure at all and were often times out of position defensively. These mistakes have to be taken care of against a team as good as Anaheim, the defending Stanley Cup champions.
Martin Biron will be back in net tonight. After being put in the game for a struggling Niittymaki on Thursday, Biron stopped all 15 shots he faced cold off the bench. I'd imagine Biron will start receiving a bulk of the starts again due to how poorly Niitty's been recently.
Will he or won't he? Earlier this week, it was speculated that Teemu Selanne would make his 2008 debut either yesterday or today, after choosing to come out of retirement and suit up with the Ducks again last week. He was scratched tonight, so if those reports are true, Selanne could be in the lineup tonight. The Ducks could really use him right now; in their current 5 game losing streak, they're being outscored 15-5, including a (1)-0 shutout loss against St. Louis last night. They still have five games left on this road trip, so they need to find some way to start playing much better hockey.
If Selanne does play tonight, wouldn't it be something if Forsberg announced his return to the Flyers during the game tonight? That would really steal the show. Peter Forsberg in Ed Snider's box. Of all the dramatic things...
This should be an entertaining game. Both of these teams play similar styles of hockey; they're physical, they fight, and they have a lot of skill too. It wouldn't surprise me to see a guy like George Parros or Riley Cote try to stir things up early to get their teams fired up. Hopefully the refs let these guys play, and let the fans see a very physical hockey game.
The Flyers are 2-0-1 in games I attend, including 1-0-0 against top teams of the Western Conference. This will be the first time I go to a game and see a Flyers goalie I've already seen. First it was Michael Leighton v. Detroit, then Martin Biron v. New York (I), and then Antero Niittymaki v. Boston.
Bill Meltzer will have scartches for you when his preview gets up.
Will Jim Vandermeer be in the lineup again? He has not been good since his return to the Flyers, and Thursday might have been his worst game. A lot of fans have been waiting to see if Lasse Kukkonen gets back in the lineup after how much Vandy struggled against the Rangers.
Philadelphia Flyers: 28-16-5, 61 points
Jean-Sebastien Giguere v. Martin Biron (not positive on Jiggy; Jonas Hiller typically starts during back to backs, but J.S. was great last night.)
The Flyers will take the ice for the first time after their embarrassing 4-0 loss at the hands of the Rangers on Thursday night. They had Friday off, which is something John Stevens typically doesn't do, so the Flyers potentially coming out a bit sluggish is something to look out for. They played an all-around awful game against New York; they didn't sustain any offensive pressure at all and were often times out of position defensively. These mistakes have to be taken care of against a team as good as Anaheim, the defending Stanley Cup champions.
Martin Biron will be back in net tonight. After being put in the game for a struggling Niittymaki on Thursday, Biron stopped all 15 shots he faced cold off the bench. I'd imagine Biron will start receiving a bulk of the starts again due to how poorly Niitty's been recently.
Will he or won't he? Earlier this week, it was speculated that Teemu Selanne would make his 2008 debut either yesterday or today, after choosing to come out of retirement and suit up with the Ducks again last week. He was scratched tonight, so if those reports are true, Selanne could be in the lineup tonight. The Ducks could really use him right now; in their current 5 game losing streak, they're being outscored 15-5, including a (1)-0 shutout loss against St. Louis last night. They still have five games left on this road trip, so they need to find some way to start playing much better hockey.
If Selanne does play tonight, wouldn't it be something if Forsberg announced his return to the Flyers during the game tonight? That would really steal the show. Peter Forsberg in Ed Snider's box. Of all the dramatic things...
This should be an entertaining game. Both of these teams play similar styles of hockey; they're physical, they fight, and they have a lot of skill too. It wouldn't surprise me to see a guy like George Parros or Riley Cote try to stir things up early to get their teams fired up. Hopefully the refs let these guys play, and let the fans see a very physical hockey game.
The Flyers are 2-0-1 in games I attend, including 1-0-0 against top teams of the Western Conference. This will be the first time I go to a game and see a Flyers goalie I've already seen. First it was Michael Leighton v. Detroit, then Martin Biron v. New York (I), and then Antero Niittymaki v. Boston.
Bill Meltzer will have scartches for you when his preview gets up.
Will Jim Vandermeer be in the lineup again? He has not been good since his return to the Flyers, and Thursday might have been his worst game. A lot of fans have been waiting to see if Lasse Kukkonen gets back in the lineup after how much Vandy struggled against the Rangers.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Super Bowl Friday
It's Wing Bowl Friday, and that means it's time for my Super Bowl preview. This will likely come in several installments, starting with pass offense and defense and rush offense and defense.
Patriots Passing v. Giants Pass Defense
Regular season:
NE- 4731 yards, 8.29 YPA, 68.8% completion, 50 TD, 9 INT, 116 QB rating, 21 sacks allowed
NYG- 3317 yards, 7.01 YPA, 58.5% completion, 24 TD, 15 INT, 83.4 QB rating, 53 sacks
Postseason:
NE- 456 yards, 7.72 YPA, 78.7% completion, 5 TD, 3 INT, 105.7 QB rating, 3 sacks allowed
NYG- 620 yards, 5.86 YPA, 54.5% completion, 4 TD, 5 INT, 65.1 QB rating, 3 sacks
The Giants' pass defense has been somewhat surprising this postseason. They've really tightened up and fixed one of their weaknesses, despite sacking opposing Quarterbacks significantly less than they did in the regular season. In the week 17 meeting, Brady lit them up to the tune of 356 yards and 2 TDs, but things could be different this time around. The Patriots have sacrificed most of their aggressive, downfield passing attack in favor of more high precentage throws. The bye week should have allowed some of the banged up Giant defenders to get ready to go, and it will be interesting to see if they can begin putting tremendous pressure on the QB again.
Giants Passing v. Patriots Pass Defense
Regular season:
NYG- 3154 yards, 6.21 YPA, 55.5% completion, 23 TD, 20 INT, 73 QB rating, 21 sacks allowed
NE- 3041 yards, 6.43 YPA, 59.7% completion, 23 TD, 19 INT, 78.1 QB rating, 47 sacks
Postseason:
NYG- 560 yards, 7.05 YPA, 62.4% completion, 4 TD, 0 INT, 99.1 QB rating, 6 sacks allowed
NE- 477 yards, 6.99 YPA, 58.6% completion, 2 TD, 3 INT, 71.1 QB rating, 2 sacks
When one first glances at these numbers, something jumps out. That's obviously the huge improvement made by Eli Manning between the regular and post seasons. The completion percentage is good, he's avoiding turnovers and he's making plays downfield. This is only the second time in his career in which he's gone three straight games without throwing a pick. If he avoids them in the Super Bowl, it will be the first time he's gone four straight games. The Patriots, like the Giants, have improved their pass defense just a little bit in the playoffs. Also like the Giants, they've been getting fewer sacks. The plan against Manning has always been to get pressure directly in his face, so look for Junior Seau to continue his solid postseason and maybe force Eli to rush his throws.
Patriots Rushing v. Giants Rush Defense
Regular Season:
NE- 1849 yards, 4.1 YPC, 17 TD, 4 fumbles lost
NYG- 1563 yards, 3.8 YPC, 12 TD, 8 fumbles recovered
Postseason:
NE- 294 yards, 4.9 YPC, 2 TD, 0 fumbles lost
NYG- 251 yards, 3.6 YPC, 2 TD, 0 fumbles recovered
The Patriots have been leaning on their running game a bit more in the postseason. One problem in the regular season is how much they passed and their formations. Obviously increased passing will result in decreased rushing results, but it's more than that. The Offensive Line, as good as they are, can't get in a rythym and can't attack the defense like every lineman loves to do. These guys love blowing players off the ball, and they're getting more opportunities to do it. The Giants' run defense, already pretty good in the regular season, has improved just a little bit in the playoffs. Although some think they have the reputation of being a finesse defense beacuse of their great pass rushing ability, guys like Strahan and Pierce can play the run well and anchor the defense.
Giants Rushing v. Patriots Rush Defense
Regular Season:
NYG- 2148 yards, 4.6 YPC, 15 TD, 13 fumbles lost
NE- 1572 yards, 4.4 YPC, 7 TD, 10 fumbles recovered
Post Season:
NYG- 324 yards, 3.5 YPC, 4 TD, 0 fumbles lost
NE- 184 yards, 4.2 YPC, 0 TD, 1 fumble recovered
As the season has progressed, the Giants' backfield has emerged. Even though Brandon Jacobs has been banged up throughout the year, Ahmad Bradshaw has come out of nowhere to provide a home run threat. The 7th round pick out of Marshall has given the Giants the spark they need that Jacobs' bruising style cannot provide. However, that hasn't shown in the postseason results, which has seen a serious decline in the Giants' running game. Jacobs should be fully healthy and ready to wear down the Patriot defense and allow Bradshaw to get them when they're tired. Will this work? The Patriots have been decidedly mediocre against the run this year, regular and postseasons. Their YPC isn't impressive, and their TD against total might not be either, when you consider that they got up on teams by so much, opponents didn't want to run the ball to put up points.
Tomorrow, I'll preview something I haven't decided yet.
Patriots Passing v. Giants Pass Defense
Regular season:
NE- 4731 yards, 8.29 YPA, 68.8% completion, 50 TD, 9 INT, 116 QB rating, 21 sacks allowed
NYG- 3317 yards, 7.01 YPA, 58.5% completion, 24 TD, 15 INT, 83.4 QB rating, 53 sacks
Postseason:
NE- 456 yards, 7.72 YPA, 78.7% completion, 5 TD, 3 INT, 105.7 QB rating, 3 sacks allowed
NYG- 620 yards, 5.86 YPA, 54.5% completion, 4 TD, 5 INT, 65.1 QB rating, 3 sacks
The Giants' pass defense has been somewhat surprising this postseason. They've really tightened up and fixed one of their weaknesses, despite sacking opposing Quarterbacks significantly less than they did in the regular season. In the week 17 meeting, Brady lit them up to the tune of 356 yards and 2 TDs, but things could be different this time around. The Patriots have sacrificed most of their aggressive, downfield passing attack in favor of more high precentage throws. The bye week should have allowed some of the banged up Giant defenders to get ready to go, and it will be interesting to see if they can begin putting tremendous pressure on the QB again.
Giants Passing v. Patriots Pass Defense
Regular season:
NYG- 3154 yards, 6.21 YPA, 55.5% completion, 23 TD, 20 INT, 73 QB rating, 21 sacks allowed
NE- 3041 yards, 6.43 YPA, 59.7% completion, 23 TD, 19 INT, 78.1 QB rating, 47 sacks
Postseason:
NYG- 560 yards, 7.05 YPA, 62.4% completion, 4 TD, 0 INT, 99.1 QB rating, 6 sacks allowed
NE- 477 yards, 6.99 YPA, 58.6% completion, 2 TD, 3 INT, 71.1 QB rating, 2 sacks
When one first glances at these numbers, something jumps out. That's obviously the huge improvement made by Eli Manning between the regular and post seasons. The completion percentage is good, he's avoiding turnovers and he's making plays downfield. This is only the second time in his career in which he's gone three straight games without throwing a pick. If he avoids them in the Super Bowl, it will be the first time he's gone four straight games. The Patriots, like the Giants, have improved their pass defense just a little bit in the playoffs. Also like the Giants, they've been getting fewer sacks. The plan against Manning has always been to get pressure directly in his face, so look for Junior Seau to continue his solid postseason and maybe force Eli to rush his throws.
Patriots Rushing v. Giants Rush Defense
Regular Season:
NE- 1849 yards, 4.1 YPC, 17 TD, 4 fumbles lost
NYG- 1563 yards, 3.8 YPC, 12 TD, 8 fumbles recovered
Postseason:
NE- 294 yards, 4.9 YPC, 2 TD, 0 fumbles lost
NYG- 251 yards, 3.6 YPC, 2 TD, 0 fumbles recovered
The Patriots have been leaning on their running game a bit more in the postseason. One problem in the regular season is how much they passed and their formations. Obviously increased passing will result in decreased rushing results, but it's more than that. The Offensive Line, as good as they are, can't get in a rythym and can't attack the defense like every lineman loves to do. These guys love blowing players off the ball, and they're getting more opportunities to do it. The Giants' run defense, already pretty good in the regular season, has improved just a little bit in the playoffs. Although some think they have the reputation of being a finesse defense beacuse of their great pass rushing ability, guys like Strahan and Pierce can play the run well and anchor the defense.
Giants Rushing v. Patriots Rush Defense
Regular Season:
NYG- 2148 yards, 4.6 YPC, 15 TD, 13 fumbles lost
NE- 1572 yards, 4.4 YPC, 7 TD, 10 fumbles recovered
Post Season:
NYG- 324 yards, 3.5 YPC, 4 TD, 0 fumbles lost
NE- 184 yards, 4.2 YPC, 0 TD, 1 fumble recovered
As the season has progressed, the Giants' backfield has emerged. Even though Brandon Jacobs has been banged up throughout the year, Ahmad Bradshaw has come out of nowhere to provide a home run threat. The 7th round pick out of Marshall has given the Giants the spark they need that Jacobs' bruising style cannot provide. However, that hasn't shown in the postseason results, which has seen a serious decline in the Giants' running game. Jacobs should be fully healthy and ready to wear down the Patriot defense and allow Bradshaw to get them when they're tired. Will this work? The Patriots have been decidedly mediocre against the run this year, regular and postseasons. Their YPC isn't impressive, and their TD against total might not be either, when you consider that they got up on teams by so much, opponents didn't want to run the ball to put up points.
Tomorrow, I'll preview something I haven't decided yet.
Steve Vezinaquette
The Vezina Trophy, as voted on by the NHL's 30 General Managers, is presented to the goalie judged to be the most valuable to his team. Some of the best of all time have been presented this trophy, including Martin Brodeur, who has won three out of the last four. However, late this afternoon, I'm hearing from a league source that there will be a new name for this award: the Valiquette?
Steve Valiquette: he's 30 year old backup to Henrik Lundvqist of the New York Rangers. He's played on three NHL teams over seven seasons, previously with the crosstown Islanders and Edmonton Oilers. Although he has just 7 wins in those seasons, including his first career shutout last night, he is universally praised as one of the great goalies of this era.
One annoymous scout's take on this legend: "He (Valiquette) can do it all. Despite his tremendous size, his game is very quick and smooth. It's almost hard to assign a style of play to him. He just does so much well. His reflexes are top notch and his rebound control is phenominal."
Despite having only 7 wins at the age of 30, the NHL felt that it was best to make the trophy change now. He's just a late bloomer, and by the time he's in his late 30's and 40's, he'll be doing things guys like Roy and Hasek could only dream of.
On a side note, I think the Antero Niittymagic might be over.
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