Like last year, during this All-Star Break, I'm going to grade the Phillies' first halves and also make projections for the rest of the season. Unlike last year, the Phillies have stayed mostly injury free and are in first place instead of chasing it. However, that lead is only by half a game, so there's some work to be done. At the break last year, which was after 88 games for the Phillies, the team was 44-44. After 88 this year, they were four games better at 48-40. They sit at 52-44 overall.
I'll assign players grades based on not only their performance this season, but I'll also weigh expectations. For example, Shane Victorino earned a high grade last year, even though he didn't have the best stats. Less was expected out of him than say a Ryan Howard.
2B Chase Utley
B+
.291/.372/.582 68 R 25 HR 68 RBI 10/10 stealing
Projection: .310/.380/.570 130 R 40 HR 130 RBI 18/20 stealing
Although he's not keeping up his torrid pace to start the season, Utley will still likely finish with career highs in SLG, HR and RBI. His OPS may go down a tick or two from last year, but his rates would almost be impossible to reproduce. In the second half, look for him to raise his average a little bit and get out of the mini-funk he's been in. He's fucking Chase Utley, you know he'll do it.
1B Ryan Howard
D+
.234/.324/.508 62 R 28 HR 84 RBI 1/1 stealing
Projection: .260/.370/.560 110 R 47 HR 140 RBI 1/1 stealing
Because he leads the league in HR and RBI, people thought he was an All-Star snub. I disagree. I'm one of Howard's biggest defenders, and I hardly ever criticize the guy, but he's having a tough year. He's hitting well with RISP, but he needs to put the ball in play more. His average is bordering on unacceptable, but he's been heating up as of late. He has time to rightsize his ship.
LF Pat Burrell
A+
.275/.404/.575 49 R 23 HR 57 RBI 0/0 stealing
Projection: .270/.400/.550 85 R 35 HR 110 RBI 0/0 stealing
What a difference a year makes. At this time last year, Burrell was struggling in the worst way, and the Phillies were doing everything possible to get him out of the lineup and maybe even trade him. This season, he was a huge All-Star snub and is having the best season of his career. It couldn't happen to a better person with Burrell being one of the hardest working players in the league and a good fit in the clubhouse. I hope he keeps it up, but I think he'll tail off just a little bit.
CF Shane Victorino
B-
.279/.350/.408 59 R 5 HR 29 RBI 22/28 stealing
Project: .280/.355/.415 109 R 8 HR 60 RBI 40/49 stealing
Injuries shut down Shane's effectiveness late last year, and it looked like he could be headed down a similar road this season with a DL stint in April. However, he has bounced back nicely and been a decent contributor at times. Victorino has been very streaky, but one positive this season has been his plate discipline. His OBP has hit the magic .350 benchmark, and he's not a bad fit in the #2 hole if he can keep that up.
3B Pedro Feliz
B
.270/.320/.442 35 R 12 HR 45 RBI 0/0 stealing
Projection: .260/.315/.430 67 R 23 HR 85 RBI 1/1 stealing
Feliz' bat has been a big surprise to me. This is one of the best years at the plate in his career, and he's done it pretty quietly with steady improvement over the course of the season. He's been a lot more patient at the plate than in previous seasons, and that has led to a lot more success. Obviously he's bringing his outstanding glove, and you can see how good he is in the field in just about every game.
SS Jimmy Rollins
C-
.274/.340/.438 39 R 6 HR 31 RBI 24/24 stealing
Projection: .280/.340/.460 13 HR 71 RBI 45/47 stealing
In early April, Rollins suffered a sprained ankle injury that put a cloud over the season before things really got started. After a controversial stay on the bench, he was finally put on the DL and allowed to rehab. He got back and just hasn't been the same. It's possible Rollins is still bothered by the injury, and I hope he keeps getting better. His SLG hasn't been this low since 2005. Despite the severe lack in XBH, Rollins has been as good as ever on the basepaths as the Phillies continue to be one of the most efficient base stealing teams in the league.
RF Geoff Jenkins
F
.237/.289/.379 23 R 7 HR 24 RBI 1/2 stealing
Projection: .245/.300/.410 43 R 12 HR 45 RBI 1/3 stealing
Jenkins was supposed to be a pretty big part of the lineup. He was brought in to platoon with Jayson Werth and face right handed pitchers. Obviously, since there are more righties than lefties, Jenkins was paid a lot of money to hit some home runs behind Burrell. There's a big problem for the Phillies: he hasn't. He's having an absolutely terrible season, and he's still on the payroll for at least one more year. He has to make the necessary adjustments to put the ball in play more and smack some extra base hits.
RF Jayson Werth
B
.271/.357/.477 32 R 16 HR 36 RBI 11/12 stealing
Projection: .275/.365/.460 60 R 22 HR 65 RBI 20/23 stealing
Werth's OPS is down from last year, but you'll be hard pressed to find a fan that's upset about his performance. He has absolutely smoked lefties again this year, but he's still a bit average against righties. With Jenkins struggling the way he is, Werth could see a few more opportunities to hit off them. He's a good defensive player with a knack for stealing bases, and he's definitely an asset off the bench.
C Carlos Ruiz
F
.202/.303/.269 26 R 2 HR 20 RBI 0/1 stealing
Projection: .230/.320/.300 46 R 5 HR 40 RBI 0/1 stealing
I can't explain it. Ruiz was solid in 2007, providing good defense and not being a total butcher at the plate. This season, he has experienced a terrible drop-off after a strong spring that got fans excited for his potential. His CS% has dropped dramatically, and despite a much lower CERA, a lot of fans are still upset with his defense. Color me surprised. I didn't think C would be as much of a weak spot for the 2008 Phillies as it has been. He needs to get better, or he could join Brett Myers in the minor leagues.
C Chris Coste
C
.279/.333/.479 16 R 7 HR 21 RBI 0/0 stealing
Projection: .270/.320/.460 30 R 10 HR 40 RBI 0/0 stealing
I hope Coste is still getting seen more and more as just a regular bench player now, and his great story is pushed to the backs of everyone's minds. Obviously what he accomplished was great, but people need to ignore where he came from when evaluating him now. He's in a huge slump right now, and I hope he can make the adjustments necessary to stay afloat. He started tailing off at the end of last year, and I hope people realize the more he plays, the worse he does.
Util Eric Bruntlett
C
.232/.314/.317 32 R 2 HR 12 RBI 8/9 stealing
Projection: .240/.325/.330 57 R 3 HR 22 RBI 14/17 stealing
Bruntlett's Philadelphia career got off to a rough start when he took over for Jimmy Rollins. Early on, he made a couple errors and failed to execute at the plate against the Mets, and many fans turned on him early. He can play just about every position, run the bases well, and offensively, he's been better than Abraham Nunez, which is all I ask for.
Util Greg Dobbs
B
.322/.362/.441 13 R 2 HR 18 RBI 2/3 stealing
Projection: .305/.345/.450 28 R 6 HR 38 RBI 3/4 stealing
Dobbs has to be setting some sort of historic pace for pinch hitting. He's been almost automatic coming off the bench, and when everything is said and done, he'll probably be the best Phillie pinch-hitter in history. With Feliz' emergence as a solid 3B, Dobbs' role has been minimalized. He'll get a spot start here and there, but no matter how often he's penciled into the lineup, he'll find a way to contribute late in games when the team needs a hit.
OF So Taguchi
F
.212/.288/.273 15 R 0 HR 4 RBI 2/2 stealing
Projection: .220/.300/.280 17 R 0 HR 4 RBI 2/2 stealing
I think that before the trading deadline, the Phillies will find a way to upgrade the bench and Taguchi will be gone. I know he's only the 5th OF and I probably shouldn't complain much, but he has not provided anything this year. His defense has produced more heartache than it should, and he doesn't have a single pinch hit this season.
2B Brad Harman
F
.100/.182/.200 1 R 0 HR 1 RBI 0/0 stealing
Projection: .167/.214/.250 1 R 0 HR 1 RBI 0/0 stealing
I'm just having fun with that line, but the point is he probably won't get many more AB this season. He came up briefly for Rollins while he was on the DL, but the team just didn't need him much. He still has some room to grow in the minors, and he was only up because he was the extra IF on the 40 man roster.
OF T.J. Bohn
D
.400/.400/.600 1 R 0 HR 3 RBI 0/0 stealing
Projection: .300/.300/.400 2 R 0 HR 3 RBI 1/1 stealing
Bohn did a decent job in his few moments with the team. He provided a surprise RBI double at one point, and his defense saved the team a run or two. He's a very mediocre hitter, but he's a good athlete that plays a strong OF.
OF Chris Snelling
D-
.500/.500/1.500 1 R 1 HR 1 RBI 0/0 stealing
Projection: Same line
If healthy, Snelling could be a real asset to a team. As it stands, he's not. He's fast, but what good is speed if you're always on the DL? He at least has a little power, but you can't prove it from the training table. I'd like this guy to be the 5th OF, but the fact is, you can't rely on him.
Util Mike Cervenak
F
.000/.000/.000 0 R 0 HR 0 RBI 0/0 stealing
Projection: Hopefully he gets a hit
Cervenak is a career minor leaguer who got called up for a brief time before the break. He got his first ML AB, but he couldn't reach base. Hopefully he gets that chance later this year.
Cole Hamels
A
9-6 3.15 ERA 142.2 IP 1.02 WHIP 126 K 34 BB
Projection: 17-10 3.27 ERA 226.2 IP 1.09 WHIP 210 K 50 BB
You couldn't ask for anything more from this guy. He's incredible. It's great to have a legitimate #1 pitcher back in the fold for the first time since probably Schilling. Even though he hasn't gotten the run support you'd like to see, every time Cole goes out there, you're confident that you have a great shot at winning. He's averaging just over 7 IP a start, which I thought to be ridiculous when I first calculated it. I didn't know guys pitched that many innings.
Jamie Moyer
B
8-6 3.95 ERA 114 IP 1.39 WHIP 70 K 33 BB
Projection: 13-11 4.70 ERA 201 IP 1.45 WHIP 115 K 60 BB
As an end of the rotation starter, what more can you ask for? He's given up quite a few baserunners, but Jamie Moyer has done a great job of getting out of jams this year. I hope he can keep it up, but I have to say that with guarded optimism. It's well documented that August is his worst month, and he's going to have to stay afloat for the Phillies to stay in the position they're in. I hope this guy can pitch until he's 50.
Kyle Kendrick
B
8-3 4.47 ERA 104.2 IP 1.46 WHIP 47 K 32 BB
Projection: 13-8 4.67 ERA 188.2 IP 1.40 WHIP 85 K 60 BB
I'm going to admit that I'm not a huge Kyle Kendrick fan. I don't have posters of him in my room, and I don't think he's the next Brandon Webb. I don't think he's that great of a pitcher, but I can also acknowledge that he does a good job with what he has. He certainly doesn't have great stuff, but at some point, you need to look past it and just say he does a good job. He gets great run support which helps a lot, but more often than not, you have a chance when he's on the mound.
Adam Eaton
F
3-8 5.71 ERA 104 IP 1.61 WHIP 56 K 43 BB
Projection: 4-10 5.50 ERA 124 IP 1.65 WHIP 65 K 50 BB
Ouch. Let me assure you, when Adam Eaton made several starts that weren't absolutely horrendous, I saw through the mirage. I knew the Eaton on the mound was not any different from the one we saw in 2007. I hate to blast the guy because he's always completely accountable for what he does. He's the perfect teammate, but he can't play. He just can't pitch.
Brett Myers
F
3-9 5.84 ERA 101.2 IP 1.56 WHIP 88 K 44 BB
Projection: 9-13 5.00 ERA 185.2 IP 1.45 WHIP 170 K 80 BB
From 2007 Opening Day starter to very good closer to 2008 Opening Day starter to Lehigh Valley to Reading and back to the majors. The last one and a half years have been quite a journey for Brett, as a highly paid, often times controversial pitcher. He struggled from the word go in April, and he's lost just about every supporter along the way. However, we've all seen him pitch well before. I still have a little confidence that he can regain something and help the team out. I still had to give him an F.
Chad Durbin
A+
2-2 1.89 ERA 52.1 IP 1.20 WHIP 43 K 19 BB
Projection: 3-4 2.50 ERA 87.1 IP 1.25 WHIP 65 K 35 BB
A+ might be a little high, but I can't believe what Durbin is doing out of the bullpen this year. I didn't think much of his signing back over the offseason, but I figured he would at the very least be better than Jose Mesa. He's been better than Mesa by a long shot. He gets a lot of big outs in tough situations, and with the way he gets ground balls, he's a valuable asset to any bullpen.
Ryan Madson
B+
2-0 2.77 ERA 48.2 IP 1.17 WHIP 37 K 14 BB
Projection: 4-2 3.01 ERA 75 IP 1.20 WHIP 57 K 22 BB
I can't say enough about this bullpen. Despite some early struggles, Madson has put together a great season so far. He has been lights out for the past couple months, and he'll keep getting some high leverage innings if he continues to pitch well. Although he makes himself unavailable more than most people would like, his arm is important down the stretch. We need him healthy.
Brad Lidge
A
2-0 1.13 ERA 20 saves 40 IP 1.13 WHIP 55 K 19 BB
Projection: 3-1 1.57 ERA 40 saves 70 IP 1.15 WHIP 95 K 35 BB
Albert Pujols is behind him, and Brad Lidge is well on his way to resoldifying himself as one of the best in the game. He was a perfect 20 for 20 in save chances, and he's been as dominant as they come. After a knee injury that had Phillies fans groaning again, Lidge came back and proved right away that Pat Gillick made a smart trade to get him. His slider has embarrassed just about everyone, and he earned himself a nice contract extension.
Clay Condrey
B
2-1 3.66 ERA 1 save 39.1 IP 1.35 WHIP 23 K 8 BB
Projection: 2-1 3.70 ERA 1 save 45 IP 1.37 WHIP 26 K 10 BB
Unfortunately, if the Phillies add another reliever, it'll probably cost Condrey his Phillies job. I like the guy, but it'll probably be the right move to make. He's having a solid year pitching relaxing innings, and he hasn't killed them in games like he did a few times last year. I wish him luck.
J.C. Romero
B
4-2 2.17 ERA 1 save 37.1 IP 1.39 WHIP 33 K 25 BB
Projection: 5-4 2.75 ERA 1 save 62.1 IP 1.35 WHIP 53 K 45 BB
If I was grading him for what fans think of him, his grade would be a lot better. Obviously since I'm grading him based on my expectations, he's doing just fine. J.C. Romero IS a great pitcher against left handed batters. He's one of the toughest to beat in the game. J.C. Romero is NOT a set up man, and J.C. Romero is NOT a future closer. He is straight up awful against righties, and that's hurt the team in a few spots.
Rudy Seanez
B
4-3 2.40 ERA 30 IP 1.33 WHIP 22 K 16 BB
Projection: 5-5 3.50 ERA 50 IP 1.40 WHIP 35 K 28 BB
Here's another guy who I was just hoping could not kill the team. He's done a solid job so far, and he's beating my expectations. He's had a couple bad outings where he just doesn't have it, but otherwise, I have no complaints. He doesn't throw quite as hard as he used to, but he's still done a pretty good job of getting outs.
Tom Gordon
F
5-4 5.16 ERA 2 saves 29.2 IP 1.62 WHIP 26 K 17 BB
Projection: 5-4 4.90 ERA 2 saves 40 IP 1.55 WHIP 35 K 24 BB
Gordon has been the only weak link in the pen this year. Although a lot of fans like to play the "if you take X appearance out" game with him, the reality is that doesn't matter. His bad games are mixed in there, and they've cost the team games. When he gets hot, he deserves to get important innings, but I don't know if it'll happen again. He may be done.
J.A. Happ
C
0-0 3.27 ERA 11 IP 1.46 WHIP 8 K 8 BB
Projection: 1-1 4.50 ERA 22 IP 1.40 WHIP 14 K 12 BB
Happ came up and did a little better than last year, and I guess that's all the Phillies could've asked for. I'm not going to fly off the handle and say he should be guaranteed a start every five days the rest of the year, but he could contribute if we give him the chance. I think ultimately, he ends up as a lefty reliever, and he might end up playing that role later this year.
R.J. Swindle
F
0-0 7.71 ERA 4.2 IP 2.36 WHIP 4 K 2 BB
Projection: Same line
His stuff is fun to watch because it's so different. His slow curve and delivery can throw off some batters, but it wasn't very successful in his short stint in the bullpen. Eventually, he could become a good option against lefties, but if anyone is counting on him to be a regular reliever, you'll be disappointed.
There we go. Things were a lot shorter than last year, which is a good thing. The season is going well, and the roster has largely remained unchanged. Joe Blanton is a pretty decent acquisition, and he should be able to pitch some valuable innings down the stretch. He can be a decent pitcher, and I hope he gets off to a fast start.
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