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Florida Marlins: 30-22
Philadelphia Phillies: 31-24
Mark Hendrickson (7-2 4.14 ERA, 0-1 12.60 ERA)
Brett Myers (2-6 5.79 ERA, 5-7 5.01 ERA)
Projected lineups:
Ramirez SS 5/17, 2 RBI, .294/.333/.353
Hermida RF 1/9, .111/.200/.111
Cantu 3B N/A
Jacobs 1B 7/18, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .389/.476/.778
Uggla 2B 7/18, 2 HR, 6 RBI, .389/.389/.833
Gonzalez LF 4/11, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .364/.364/.636
Treanor C 1/8, 1 RBI, .125/.125/.125
Jones CF 5/10, .500/.615/.800
Hendrickson P
Rollins SS 1/3, .333/.500/.333
Victorino CF 3/3, 2 RBI, 1.000/1.000/1.667
Utley 2B 2/3, 2 RBI, .667/.667/1.000
Howard 1B 0/2
Burrell LF 1/2, .500/.500/.500
Feliz 3B 3/15, .200/.200/.200
Coste C 0/2
Taguchi RF 2/9, 1 RBI, .222/.222/.222
Myers P
Neither starter has fared well against their opponent tonight, so whoever wins is going to have to get past their previous failures and pitch a good game. CBP is going to be a launching pad tonight, and limiting the longball will be a huge factor. This has obviously been a problem for Myers this season, and with power like Ramirez, Uggla and Jacobs in Florida's lineup, he has to limit his baserunners and hold them to solo shots.
And that includes fantasy baseball minor league hitting streaks.
If you'll look closely at that leaderboard, you'll see me sitting in 10th place. That 15 game hitting streak came to an end late last night, when Brad Nelson of Nashville went 0/4. Coming into the game, he was hitting .329, so it's anyone's guess as to why he failed to get a hit. Maybe it was the pressure of continuing a great streak, or maybe it just wasn't his night. We'll never know. Hopefully he gets his head back in the game because I could rely on him in the future.
There were highs and lows on this great run. There were multi hit games, hits in the last AB and some very tense moments when players did not play. All in all, this hitting streak was something to be remembered.
I've been working on my investigative report on Yankee Stadium in my spare time. My real job has been taking cuts off of pitchers like Josh Newman and Chris Sampson. 35 runs in two games is impressive. Let's not get shut down tonight.
I would feel bad for the Rockies, but their domination of the Phillies in the playoffs last year has left a bitter taste in my mouth. They are really banged up, and they weren't as good as they finished last year to begin with. Some of their starters haven't performed the way Colorado expected them to, and the back end of their bullpen hasn't been good either. Not to mention their lineup; they're missing Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, Garrett Atkins and Troy Tulo Tulo Tulowitski. With a bunch of players from Colorado Springs up, they're a very beatable team, and the Phillies should be able to continue to bury them.
My hope for Wednesday is for Adam Eaton to not put his team in a hole early. The last two times I've gone, the starters have gotten down right away, and it's tough to always climb out of a hole. Greg Reynolds will be fun to watch, but they should be able to hit his fastball.
After a tough 4-1 series loss to Pittsburgh in the Eastern Finals, the Flyers still have a lot to look forward to. They're young, talented, and they're going to win a Cup very soon. Will it be 2008-09? Let's see how the team looks right now.
Gagne (5.25)-Briere (6.5)-Lupul (2.311667)
Hartnell (4.2)-Richards (5.75)-Knuble (2.8)
Upshall (1.225)- No one-Kapanen (1.25)
Need a 4th line
Timonen (6.333333)- Coburn (1.1808)
Hatcher (3.5)-Kukkonen (.875)
Parent (.855)-No one
Biron (3.5)
Niittymaki (1.225)
Some other guys to throw in:
Gauthier (2.1)
Tolpeko (.492 on a 2 way deal)
Rathjie (3.5)
Carter (RFA)
Umberger (RFA)
Jones (RFA)
Cote (RFA)
Thoresen (RFA)
Potulny (RFA)
Guenin (RFA)
Prospal (UFA)
Smith (UFA)
Dowd (UFA)
Modry (UFA)
My estimates, assuming Tolpeko plays for the Phantoms, Goat is in the AHL or elsewhere and Rathje is on LTIR put the Flyers at 46.7558 million. The salary cap is expected to be around 56 million, which means the Flyers have just under 10 to spend. They need to get five players under contract to fill their lineup, and that's assuming they're just adding to what they have.
Priority #1 has to be re-signing Jeff Carter. He has awesome goal scoring potential, and he's developing more and more. He could still become a better scorer than Richards; he's never going to be quite the two way player, but he should score 30-40 goals regularly. He'll probably sign for about 5 million a year, putting the Flyers at 51.7558.
Steve Downie (.821667) and Claude Giroux (.850) should be able to play regularly, putting the Flyers at 53.427627. They would still need one more forward and one more defenseman.
Will that defenseman be Randy Jones? He's a RFA, and he's turning into a decent player. The Flyers could do worse than him on the third pair. Unless the Flyers get blown away by an offer, he'll probably be back.
That means they'll only need one more forward, which can easily be addressed. There are your 2008-09 Flyers. Are you satisfied? They'll be under the cap, and they'll probably get better even returning the same roster, but is that good enough? I don't want to get greedy, but returning the same defensemen might not be a good idea. It's a clear position to upgrade, but how does Holmgren do it? There isn't any money to spend, and there aren't really any good FA options anyway. A trade will have to be made, and that means sacrificing some depth at forward.
A few potential movers are Upshall (1.225,) Knuble (2.8) and even Lupul (2.311667.) They're cheap compared to the production they give you, and in the cases of Upshall and Lupul, they have room to grow. All three are popular players, and some fans wouldn't be happy with those moves. However, having as many good scorers as the Flyers do is a luxury, and teams generally try to deal from surpluses to improve holes.
It's going to be interesting no matter what happens. Will Jeff Carter come back? Can we squeeze in R.J. Umberger? Do we change captains? Does Hatch retire? We'll see.
Except maybe tonight's starters.
Philadelphia Phillies: 27-22
Houston Astros: 27-22
Adam Eaton (0-2 5.59 ERA, 3-1 4.43 ERA)
Brandon Backe (3-5 4.58 ERA, 0-1 10.29 ERA)
Projected lineups:
Rollins SS 2/2, 1.000/1.000/1.500
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B 2/5, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .400/.400/1.000
Howard 1B 2/4, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .500/.500/1.250
Burrell LF 1/2, 1 RBI, .500/.750/.500
Jenkins RF 4/9, 2 RBI, .444/.444/.667
Feliz 3B 0/2
Coste C 1/2, 1 RBI, .500/.500/1.000
Eaton P
Bourn CF 1/3, .333/.333/.333
Matsui 2B 2/3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .667/.667/1.667
Tejada SS 3/10, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .300/.417/.600
Berkman 1B 5/14, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .357/.571/.643
Lee LF 3/11, 1 RBI, .373/.250/.364
Pence RF 1/5, 1 RBI, .200/.167/.200
Wigginton 3B N/A
Towles C N/A
Backe P
The Astros hope that Brandon Backe has a short term memory because his last start against the Phillies was absolutely forgettable. He gave up 5 ER in 3 IP, and the Phillies were well on their way towards a rout of Houston. Even if Backe has another bad start, the 'Stros should be able to survive. Against Adam Eaton, they'll be able to put runs on the board themselves. 7 might not be enough to win tonight.
Jayson Werth strained an abdominal muscle in last night's game. He's listed as day to day, and he'll probably miss about 1-2 weeks. That's a tough injury for the Phillies to handle because it might not be serious enough to warrant a DL stint, but he still might not be able to play. That could leave them short on the bench again, like what happened before Rollins went on the DL before his ankle injury.
Keep on scratching, Miami.
The Chicago Bulls shocked the basketball world when they came away with the #1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft. They came in with the 9th best odds, and with less than a 2% chance of winning the lottery, they won the right to be on the clock first. Obviously since the Sixers made the playoffs, they were not participants in the lottery, and they would've had even worse odds anyway. The lottery is pretty exciting, but it's still nice to not be represented. That means the Sixers are on the right track. Here is a list of current Sixers picks according to popular mock drafts across the web, courtesy of Foul Pops on PhilaPhans.
Darrell Arthur, hoopshype.com
DJ Augustin, nbadraft.net
Marreese Speights, espn.com
Darrell Arthur, draftexpress.com
Donta Greene, insidehoops.com
Russell Westbrook, probasketball.com
Joe Alexander, collegehoopsnet.com
Marreese Speights, hoopsaddict.com
Marreese Speights, nbadraftguru.com
Looking at that list of players, it's clear where the Sixers need help. Arthur, Speights and Greene show the Sixers need low post help badly. Augistin and Westbrook show they need a young PG. Alexander represents the need for a shooter.
I wasn't sure that Alexander's stock was that good, but he fits a need, so I wouldn't mind that pick. Westbrook is a guy I'm not a fan of. Heck of a basketball player, but he's kind of redundant with other players on the team and doesn't seem like a "true" PG. Augistin seems like the better guy for something like that, if he stays in the draft.
It's still early, and some of these guys might not even be in the draft. A lot is going to change, and I'll be here covering the draft every step of the way.
After his domination of the Phillies on Monday, Tim Redding was presented with the 2008 Bill Mueller Career Achievement Award. This honor, presented by Phillies Chairman Bill Giles, is given to the player who excels in defeating the Phillies. In two 2008 starts against them, Redding is 2-0 without giving up a single run.
"Any time you can help the team, it's great," said Redding in the clubhouse after Monday's start. "I didn't know there was an award for beating the Phillies, but I hope I can defend my title in 2009."
Redding, despite having a career ERA of 4.74, has always shown up against the Phillies. In 8 career starts, his ERA is just 2.34 with a 4-2 record. He actually spent 2006 in the minor leagues but found life with Washington in 2007. He's now doing better than ever.
"I attribute it to working hard to get back to the level I know I can compete in and also being in the Phillies division. In the NL East, there's a great chance I take the hill against them, and that just kind of makes you focus more."
After playing pretty well for most of the game, the Flyers won game four to extend their season by at least one more game. They built a nice lead very early in the game and managed to hang on the rest of the way. It doesn't increase my confidence that much though. The Penguins came to play like the series was already won and played very undisciplined. In front of the home crowd, they should be more focused and look like they did in games 1-3.
Martin Biron played better, which is a good sign for the Flyers. If he continues to improve, the series could become more interesting.
What could increase my confidence are a pair of defensemen possibly coming back to the lineup. As of this moment, to me, it seems like Kimmo Timonen is more likely to play today. The doctors told him his blood clot can't get any worse if he plays, so he'll probably be ready to go. I don't know how it can't get worse, but I trust the professional's opinion. Braydon Coburn could also return, but I'm less optimistic about that. He says it's pretty likely, but from what I've read, he's feeling pressure to come back and might not actually be ready. Even if they're not full strength, it'll be a huge boost for the Flyers, not only on the ice but for morale.
Expect this game to be very physical, especially early on. There were fights and scrums in the final few minutes of game four, including an incident involving Sidney Crosby. Ryan Malone may feel the need for revenge after his humiliating loss to Derian Hatcher, and the Penguins might want to try and protect their captain, since he certainly can't do it himself.
Bill Meltzer has his preview up.
Toronto Blue Jays: 21-23
Philadelphia Phillies: 24-19
A.J. Burnett (3-4 4.94 ERA, 4-7 4.70 ERA)
Adam Eaton (0-1 5.40 ERA, 1-0 0.00 ERA)
Projected lineups:
Wilkerson LF 4/8, .500/.600/.500
Hill 2B 0/3
Rios CF 0/2, .000/.333/.000
Rolen 3B 6/19, 2 HR, 4 RBI, .316/.381/.737
Stairs RF 3/11, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .273/.429/.545
Overbay 1B 2/11, 1 RBI, .182/.333/.182
Scutaro SS 1/2, .500/.750/1.000
Barajas C 0/10
Burnett P
Rollins SS 9/37, 3 RBI, .243/.326/.324
Werth CF 0/3
Utley 2B 6/16, 1 HR, 5 RBI, .375/.412/.688
Howard 1B 2/6, 2 HR, 2 RBI, .333/.333/1.333
Burrell LF 9/33, 2 HR, 8 RBI, .273/.400/.515
Jenkins RF 4/12, 3 RBI, .333/.333/.417
Dobbs 3B 2/3, 1 RBI, .667/.750/.667
Ruiz C N/A
Eaton P
I am determined to get Rod Barajas in the lineup this series. He and Zaun have caught Burnett the same amount of times, but he has more success with Hot Rod behind the plate.
Toronto Blue Jays: 21-22
Philadelphia Phillies: 23-19
David Purcey (0-0 2.08 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Jamie Moyer (2-3 5.02 ERA, 13-8 5.31 ERA)
Projected lineups:
Wilkerson RF 1/6, .167/.444/.167
Hill 2B 5/13, .385/.467/.385
Rios CF 7/16, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .438/.500/.938
Rolen 3B 1/4, .250/.250/.250
Mench LF 10/28, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .357/.419/.500
Overbay 1B 5/10, 1 HR, 6 RBI, .500/.500/1.100
Zaun C 2/6, 1 RBI, .333/.333/.500
Scutaro SS 10/25, 3 HR, 5 RBI, .400/.429/.500
Purcey P
Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Werth RF N/A
Feliz 3B N/A
Coste C N/A
Moyer P
He's obviously struggling this year, so I will try and figure out the problem. Here are some facts to consider when figuring out what to do with Myers.
- He's still only 27 years old
- He's had success as a starter before
- He's owed 8.5 million this season and 12 million next year
- He's shown great stuff in the past
- His ERA this season is approaching Adam Eaton territory
- From his last year as a full time starter:
- Innings Pitched DOWN
- Hit Rate UP
- Walk Rate UP
- Strikeout Rate DOWN
- HR Rate WAY UP
- Shoulder injury last year
He's been bad this season. I know it, you know it, Myers knows it, and the Phillies know it. People say he doesn't care because he's an idiot or whatever, but that couldn't be further from the case. We all saw the fire he displayed as a closer. He shows a lot of emotion on the mound, and I think it's fair to say he cares more than anyone else. Myers doesn't know what's wrong, and he's trying to figure it out. He's going to work harder.
First of all, the Phillies need to sit down with Myers and find out if anything is wrong with his arm. His velocity hasn't been there for much of the season, and the question is whether or not this is due to lack or preparation or an injury. Manuel and Dubee have said that Myers doesn't work as hard as he should between starts, and he has since started long tossing on his off days. Last year, he had that serious shoulder injury, and even when he did come back, he admitted to pitching hurt for the remainder of the season. If it turns out he's injured again, he needs to be put on the DL and take some time off.
If he's not hurt, then the Phillies need to just stick with him until he gets better. We've seen what he can do before, and I'm confident he'll get back to that level again. I know it's frustrating to watch him pitch right now, but he's a highly paid, talented player, and the team needs to work things out. He's a key part to this season, and Myers has to get better if the Phillies are going to hang around in September again.
Just win baby.
It's 3-0, and what do they have to lose? The Flyers need to try something different to try and finally come out on top against Pittsburgh. They've won four in a row in the playoffs before, and even though it's a tough test, it can be done.
Martin Biron needs to start playing better. Whatever he did against Montreal needs to be picked up again, and it needs to happen immediately? Can it happen? It's obviously tough to just flip on a switch, but it only takes one game to get hot.
They need to score more goals. 2, 2 and 1 doesn't cut it against Tampa or LA, and it definitely won't fly against a team like the Penguins. Quality chances need to be generated, and the Flyers need to capitalize.
They've done everything wrong this series, and now is as good a time as any to pick things up. Is Pittsburgh this awesome? We'll find out against Detroit.
Note: This was originally going to be released after the Flyers' game seven victory, but the mainstream media's inside sources for my content leaked it, so I'm just putting things out there for everyone to see.
Film treatment "How The East Was Won"
World-renowned baker John Stevens always had hockey aspirations in his home town of Campbellton. At the age of 30, he threw down his goofy white hat and laced up the ice skates one last time in a tryout for the Philadelphia Flyers. He was signed to a contract and named team captain of the AHL's Philadelphia Phantoms. In 1999, not too long after leading the Phantoms to a Calder Cup, an eye injury caused Stevens to retire and become an assistant coach. Little did he know he would be leading a team to one of the greatest comebacks in sports history.
After finishing the disastrous season in 2006-2007 that Ken Hitchcock started, John Stevens faced many problems. He had to help turn around a team that just had one of the worst seasons in hockey history. Paul Holmgren acquired several talented players to rebuild the franchise, but that did not guarantee success. Using team building activities such as locker room shuffling, Stevens got the roster to gel and play well on the ice. In the first round of the playoffs, the Flyers defeated the red hot Washington Capitals in seven games. They built up a 3-1 lead, but nothing came easy; it took a Joffrey Lupul OT goal to clinch. Against Montreal, the Flyers pulled a stunning upset, but their greatest test still stood before them: the Pittsburgh Penguins.
After going down 3 games to none, Stevens was almost out of answers. He lost his two best defensemen, and the Flyers were getting completely outplayed. With nothing to lose, he did the unthinkable and switched some lines. His team took advantage of a lazy Pittsburgh squad in game four, and took the series back to the Steel City. Facing a tough crowd and that's been unstoppable at home, Stevens watched his team come together to keep the season alive. Brayon Coburn somehow returned back to the lineup and scored a key game six goal to force a deciding game seven in Pittsburgh.
He couldn't believe what he saw. His team committed fewer turnovers, cleared the puck, and took advantage of power play opportunities. Their physical game was frustrating the Penguins, who believed they already had the series clinched. Prior to game seven, Stevens used a new tactic, maybe his greatest yet; he delivered a killer pregame speech. No man with a soul could not be inspired by this rare show of emotion, and the Flyers played like it. They were determined to skate away victorious, and they advanced to take on the Detroit Red Wings in the Stanley Cup Finals.
To be continued.
Atlanta Braves: 19-19
Philadelphia Phillies: 22-18
Tom Glavine (0-1 4.03 ERA, 28-17 3.68 ERA)
Brett Myers (2-3 5.33 ERA, 4-6 4.16 ERA)
Projected lineups:
Escobar SS 0/2, .000/.500/.000
Kotsay CF 1/2, .500/.667/.500
Larry 3B 8/28, 2 HR, 6 RBI, .286/.429/.500
McCann C 6/21, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .286/.348/.476
Francoeur RF 6/27, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .222/.250/.370
Johnson 2B 0/12, .000/.077/.000
Norton 1B 0/3
Blanco LF N/A
Glavine P
Rollins SS 28/75, 6 HR, 13 RBI, .373/.434/.760
Victorino CF 3/14, .214/.313/.429
Utley 2B 6/27, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .222/.323/.407
Howard 1B 7/24, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .292/.433/.542
Burrell LF 18/68, 3 HR, 11 RBI, .265/.386/.426
Werth RF 2/8, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .250/.250/.625
Feliz 3B 4/15, 3 RBI, .267/.389/.400
Coste C 3/9, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .333/.333/.778
Myers P
One key for the Phillies tonight will be to get off to a faster start than Tuesday. They were in a 3-0 hole immediately, and it took them a few innings to start getting some cuts against Reyes. Some of the players in the lineup tonight actually have some success against Glavine, so the Phillies will look to turn the tables on Atlanta and their good first inning from last night.
Hopefully Ryan Howard continues to hit well and finally gets out of this slump. It was great when he smacked a double when the 105 idiots were saying things like "Why do people applaud this guy?" and "I could hit .170. And that's a fact."
Martin Biron v. Marc-Andre Fleury
The heavily-favored Penguins took game one by a score of 4-2, and now it's up to the Flyers to respond in game two like the previous two series against Washington and Montreal. This series is not unwinnable. The Penguins didn't prove to clearly be a superior, dominant team Friday night. For the most part, the Flyers can score with them step for step, and they just need to prove it. It starts tonight at 7:30.
Martin Biron has to be better in net tonight. As I said yesterday, the guys in front of him didn't play well, but he needs to step up his game as well.
The turnovers and sloppy play has to be cut down for the Flyers to even the series. Poor passes and decisions cost the Flyers twice, and it's tough to pull off an upset without playing smart hockey. Biron misplayed the puck behind his net which led to Pittsburgh's second goal, and careless passing on the PP led to their 4th goal and Malkin's second of the night. The Penguins will take advantage of every mistake possible. Guys like Malkin and Hossa are great coming back in their own end and then taking off the other way. Pittsburgh gets no easy chances.
Crosby and Malkin are tough enough for most teams, but they seem to raise their level of play against the Flyers. In 20 career games against the Flyers, he has 16 goals and 21 assists, which is almost a ridiculous two points a game. If all 213 of his career games were against the Flyers with these averages, he would have 170 goals (compared to the 99 he really has,) and 223 assists (compared to the 195 he really has) for a total of 393 points, 99 more than his real total. Malkin is more of the same. In 15 career games against the Flyers, he has 10 goals and 14 assists. These are two out of this world players that somehow raise their performance. That is very difficult to stop, especially without Kimmo Timonen.
Bill Meltzer will have his preview up later.
Philadelphia Phillies: 21-16
San Francisco Giants: 14-22
Jamie Moyer (2-2 4.15 ERA, 4-5 2.73 ERA)
Tim Lincecum (4-1 1.49 ERA, 0-0 5.82 ERA)
Projected lineups:
Rollins SS 1/7, .143/.143/.143
Victorino CF 4/11, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .364/.364/.727
Utley 2B 2/8, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .250/.333/.750
Howard 1B 1/6, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .167/.444/.667
Burrell LF 3/5, 2 RBI, .600/.778/1.000
Jenkins LF 2/10, 1 RBI, .200/.182/.300
Feliz 3B 1/3, .333/.333/.333
Ruiz C 1/6, .167/.167/.333
Moyer P
Lewis LF N/A
Vizquel SS 22/59, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .373/.422/.492
Winn RF 8/22, 3 RBI, .364/.364/.591
Molina C 11/45, 4 HR, 8 RBI, .244/.277/.511
Rowand CF 5/16, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .313/.313/.625
Castillo 3B 1/7, .143/.143/.286
Aurilia 1B 1/12, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .083/.077/.333
Velez 2B N/A
Lincecum P
Jimmy Rollins made his return from the DL last night, and his bat led the Phillies to a comfortable win. The ankle probably feels fine, and he should be back out there this afternoon. Now that the lineup is completely healthy, they should start scoring even more runs and reclaim their spot as the most dangerous lineup in the NL. Now we're just waiting on Ryan Howard. Brad Harman was optioned to Reading to make room for Rollins on the roster.
The Flyers lost game one for the third straight series, after Pittsburgh had a three goal first period and shut things down for the remaining two. Despite the 4-2 final score, the Flyers weren't outplayed that badly. There are some things to clean up, but this series is not over.
The Flyers outshot the Penguins, so the offensive opportunities were obviously there. They only scored two goals, so you have to give credit to Marc Andre Fleury for being solid in net. For the most part, they moved the puck well on the PP, and it didn't seem as if they missed Timonen on that unit at all. Randy Jones played well.
However, there were a lot of mistakes that need to be corrected, or their stars are going to continue to kill the Flyers all series. Turnovers and sloppy play gave Pittsburgh many opportunities, and at times, the Flyers looked more like last year's disaster of a team than this year's conference finalist. To pull off upsets, underdogs cannot give the favorite chances. That's what they did, and Pittsburgh capitalized.
Biron wasn't his best, but again, Philadelphia made too many mistakes in front of him. Surprisingly, Jaroslav Modry wasn't visible for most of the night. If the Flyers are smarter with the puck and clear the zone with less difficulty, it's going to be harder for the Penguins to score. As the title says, win game two and they're in great shape.
Martin Biron v. Marc-Andrey Fleury
Somehow, the Flyers are here. Despite the 10 game losing streak, several key injuries and a couple tough opponents, the Flyers find themselves back in the conference finals for the first time since the lockout. Against them tonight is a team that may not be the #1 seed like Tampa was, but this year's Penguins might be better than that Lightning team that topped the Flyers in a great seven game series.
Martin Biron may have played great against Montreal, but he's actually statistically the worst goalie remaining in the postseason. Go figure. I don't think Fleury has really been tested, and it'll be interesting to see how he holds up against a team that can really score.
The Kimmo Timonen injury is the one thing that could not happen if the Flyers wanted to have success. I wasn't optimistic from the end of the Montreal series, but this is killer. He's the Flyers' best player. If you lose a Briere or Richards, they have the scoring depth to cover for a little bit. Timonen does everything on the blue line. He's a key part of the PP, and he's great at going out there and shutting down the opponent's top line. He was going to be instrumental in handling guys like Crosby, Malkin and Hossa, and now Jaroslav Modry will have to be much better than he has been.
What kind of style do the Flyers need to play to win? Should they get in a track meet and really outscore them, or should they slow things down and focus on not letting Pittsburgh score? It's tough to say because the Penguins have shown the ability to win both kinds of games. The Flyers should lean towards the side of putting on a lot of offensive pressure. Fleury hasn't had to face a team that can score like the Flyers, and he's still a pretty inexperienced player. Rattling him might be their only chance to win.
As usual, here is Bill Meltzer. Let's go Flyers.
Philadelphia Phillies: 19-14
Arizona Diamondbacks: 21-11
Adam Eaton (0-0 4.72 ERA, 3-4 3.80 ERA)
Randy Johnson (1-1 4.79 ERA, 9-3 2.44 ERA)
Projected lineups:
Victorino CF 2/9, .222/.222/.222
Werth RF 1/6, .167/.167/.500
Utley 1B 0/6, .000/.250/.000
Burrell LF 4/18, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .211/.423/.421
Feliz 3B 7/33, 1 RBI, .212/.212/.273
Coste C N/A
Bruntlett SS N/A
Harman 2B N/A
Eaton P
Young CF 2/4, .500/.500/.750
Byrnes LF 2/3, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .667/.667/1.667
Hudson 2B 1/3, .333/.333/.333
Jackson 1B N/A
Upton RF N/A
Reynolds 3B N/A
Drew SS 0/3
Montero C N/A
Johnson P
The Phillies were faced with a tough test last night, and up and down the entire roster, they responded with an 11-4 victory. They hit Max Scherzer early and often, and dipped into the D'Backs pen early in the series. Tonight, they face another challenge in Randy Johnson, who has historically dominated the Phillies throughout his career. It's tough to put much stock into numbers like that since they're against different players and lineups, but success is success. Without Ryan Howard in the lineup, some other guys are going to have to step up.
Jamie Moyer delivered a very good start last night, and Adam Eaton will look to continue his mediocre start to the season tonight. He hasn't been quite as awful in 2008, but he's had his moments. Arizona is actually without Hudson tonight, so their lineup isn't as strong as I predicted.
This is an idea I thought of a few days ago, so I'm going to see how it goes. Basically, I'm going to take BaseballAmerica's top 31 list, and make adjustments to it based on how the prospect is doing. If I continue this in the future, adjustments will be made to the previously adjusted list. All stats are from before yesterday (and today's) action.
1. SP Carlos Carrasco AA: 2-2, 4.03 ERA, 29 IP, 28 H, 12 BB, 32 K: Stock Push: After a terrible transition to AA last season, Carrasco is making adjustments and improving. Although is hit rate is a tad higher than last year's, his command has been much better with more than a K an inning and fewer walks.
2. 2B Adrian Cardenas A+: 17/49, 5 R, 2 RBI, 1/1 SB, .347/.373/.408: Stock Push: A back injury has temporarily sidetracked Cardenas, who has not played in over two weeks. Prior to the injury, Cardenas was making good contact with the ball. Some extra base hits would be nice to see when he comes back.
3. SP Joe Savery A+: 1-2 2.92 ERA, 37 IP, 37 H, 14 BB, 31 K: Stock Up: His command has gotten better since last season, which was probably his biggest problem. He's been getting hit a bit more in the early going, but that's to be expected when making the jump to a new level. His K rate remains virtually the same.
4. SP Josh Outman AA: 1-2, 3.41 ERA, 29 IP, 33 H, 17 BB, 34 K: Stock Down: The big news of last week was Outman being moved to the bullpen, which has a significant impact on his stock. The Phillies apparently don't see a bright future for him. Even if they want Outman in the bullpen, it would still make sense to get him IP from the rotation to develop his pitches.
5. SP Kyle Drabek DL: N/A: Stock Down: He hasn't pitched, so he really can't improve. The Phillies still hope he can toss some innings later this year.
6. OF Dominic Brown A: 36/120, 16 R, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 8/9 SB, .300/.344/.392: Stock Push: Brown was a toolsy OF identified by BA this offseason. His value is still in tools and not performance yet. He's hitting for a high average, but it would be great if he could improve his SLG% a bit. He's probably going to become a leadoff-type guy, so the decline in BB rate isn't what you're looking for.
7. OF Greg Golson AA: 35/118, 19 R, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 10/13 SB, .297/.341/.441: Stock Up: Golson is one of the biggest mysteries in minor league baseball, but he's answering some questions this season. He's improving on last year's terrible AA stint and starting to remind the Phillies why they took him in the first round a few years ago. He still has some work to do, but he's experiencing success.
8. C Lou Marson AA: 26/79, 10 R, 13 RBI, 0/2 SB, .329/.437/.405: Stock Up: Marson was a HS draftee of the Phillies, and he's finally starting to break out. Recently, it was mentioned that he'll end up more of a #2 hitter, and his OBP with Reading proves it. He's never going to be a big HR guy, but he should hit a few doubles.
9. SP Drew Carpenter AA: 1-4, 6.25 ERA, 31.2 IP, 42 H, 17 BB, 22 K: Stock Down: Carpenter is a guy I've been high on for a while. I thought of the major pitching prospects in the organization, he would be the most likely callup because of his college experience and polish. Instead, he's struggling in AA. His rates aren't good and he has to turn it around quickly.
10. C Jason Jaramillo AAA: 18/95, 4 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, .189/.225/.274: Stock Down: He never profiled as more than a backup C, but this year has been brutal. It's his second year in AAA, and his season has been significantly worse. His performance at the plate has not even been close to acceptable.
11. SP JA Happ AAA: 0-4, 2.97 ERA, 39.1 IP, 30 H, 21 BB, 42 K: Stock Up: After battling some injury problems last season, Happ has rebounded a bit as a prospect. If he gets in control of his stuff, he could get back into the big picture. However, at 25 years old, he's running out of time.
12. SP Scott Mathieson DL: N/A: Stock Down: I'm not sure if he's ever going to pitch again, and it's a shame.
13. SS Freddy Galvis A: 16/101, 10 R, 4 RBI, 3/4 SB, .158/.239/.168: Stock Push: He's been brutal at the plate so far, but the dude is younger than I am. He's already playing in Low A, and that's impressive. He has an awesome glove, and he could become a player if he improves his bat.
14. SP Edgar Garcia A+: 4-0, 3.50 ERA, 36 IP, 37 H, 11 BB, 33 K: Stock Up: BaseballAmerica was high on Garcia prior to 2007, but his stock dipped a bit with a subpar performance at Lakewood. He seems to have gotten things straightened out with improved command and rates.
15. SS Jason Donald AA: 25/75, 12 R, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 4/6 SB, .333/.405/.440: Stock Up: BA probably wasn't high on Donald because of his lack of tools and age, but he's getting results in the minors. His ceiling might just be a utility player in the majors, but he can probably play a bunch of positions and has proven himself to be a decent hitter over the past year and a half.
16. C Travis d'Arnaud XST: N/A: Stock Down: Hopefully the next Lieberthal or whatever he was anointed can show some promise with Williamsport.
17. P Heitor Correa XST: N/A: Stock Down: What am I supposed to do with these guys who haven't played?
18. 3B Travis Mattair A: 21/99, 10 R, 8 RBI, 0/1 SB, .212/.291/.232: Stock Push: It's great that he was able to jump right to full season ball, but I have a feeling he'll be seeing some time with the Crosscutters when their season begins.
19. SP Julian Sampson A: 1-1, 7.18 ERA, 26.1 IP, 38 H, 16 BB, 16 K: Stock Push: He's still really young, and like Mattair, he'll probably be fitted for a Williamsport uniform at some point after June. Lakewood hasn't been kind to him.
20. IF Brad Harman (AA)MLB: 1/5, 1 R, 1 RBI, .200/.333/.400: Stock Push: He's on the active roster because he's the one guy we have on the 40 man roster. It's a good experience for him to be working with the ML coaches though.
21. OF D'Arby Myers A: 18/89, 11 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 5/5 SB, .202/.265/.281: Stock Down: After a very fast start in Williamsport last year, D'Arby has cooled off tremendously. He's still very young, and he could turn it around in the future.
22. SP Carlos Monsaterios A+: 2-2, 4.06 ERA, 31 IP, 28 H, 9 BB, 19 K: Stock Up: He's sidelined with an injury at the moment, but this is the guy that could potentially salvage the Phillies something from the Bobby Abreu trade.
23. OF Quintin Berry A+: 25/104, 6 R, 7 RBI, 9/11 SB, .240/.347/.279: Stock Down: It's easy to compare him to Michael Bourn because he's fast, but Berry will never be Bourn. He has a good eye at the plate, but he needs to put the ball in play more and get more base hits if he wants to continue to rise through the system.
24. RP Joe Bisenius (AAA)AA: 0-0, 3.00 ERA, 3 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K: Stock Down: His 2007 was unimpressive, and things haven't gotten much better in 08. His ceiling was already limited, and he's fighting an uphill battle at this point.
25. 2B Tyler Mach A/leave of absence: N/A: Stock Down: No idea what's going on here. Maybe he'll come back sometime. Frankly, I don't care. I wish him the best.
26. SP Antonio Bastardo (A+)AA: 1-0, 1.59 ERA, 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K: Stock Up: His gaudy numbers in Clearwater have everyone excited, and he hasn't lost since coming over to the states. That gets a big thumbs up in my book.
27. RP Mike Zagurski DL: N/A: Stock Down: He's not pitching this year, which obviously does not bode well for prospect status, which I'm not certain he had in the first place.
28. OF Matt Spencer A+: 35/118, 18 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 1/2 SB, .297/.361/.458: Stock Up: He was a college 2007 draftee, and he jumped all the way to Clearwater. He's proving to be worth the jump, and he could move through the system even faster soon.
29. SP Drew Naylor A: 2-2, 2.25 ERA, 44 IP, 32 H, 12 BB, 50 K: Stock Up: Naylor had a very good short season in Williamsport, and he's continuing to put up good numbers in full season ball. He should probably get more attention soon.
30. RP Lincoln Holdzkom Boston: He doesn't even play here anymore.
31. P Freddy Ballestas XST: N/A: Stock Down: I say stock down, but I'd have to come up with someone else to put here.
The new top 30:
(1) 1. SP Carlos Carrasco AA
(2) 2. 2B Adrian Cardenas A+
(3) 3. SP Joe Savery A+
(5) 4. SP Kyle Drabek DL
(7) 5. OF Greg Golson AA
(8) 6. C Lou Marson AA
(4) 7. P Josh Outman AA
(6) 8. OF Dominic Brown A
(11) 9. SP J.A. Happ AAA
(14) 10. SP Edgar Garcia A+
(15) 11. SS Jason Donald AA
(9) 12. SP Drew Carpenter AA
(26) 13. SP Antonio Bastardo AA
(13) 14. SS Freddy Galvis A
(10) 15. C Jason Jaramillo AAA
(16) 16. C Travis D'Arnaud XST
(17) 17. P Heitor Correa XST
(20) 18. IF Brad Harman MLB
(18) 19. 3B Travis Mattair A
(12) 20. SP Carlos Monasterios A+
(19) 21. SP Julian Sampson A
(29) 22. SP Drew Naylor A+
(NR) 23. 1B Michael Durant A
(12) 24. SP Scott Mathieson DL
(NR) 25. OF Michael Taylor A
(28) 26. OF Matt Spencer A+
(21) 27. OF D'Arby Myers A
(23) 28. OF Quintin Berry A+
(24) 29. RP Joe Bisenius AA
(NR) 30. P Tyson Brummett A+
(31) 31. P Freddy Ballestas XST
Somewhat relevant:
(25) 2B Tyler Mach ???
(27) RP Mike Zagurski DL
(NR) P Travis Blackley AAA
(NR) OF Jeremy Slayden AA
(NR) RP Robert Swindle AA
(NR) RP Pat Overholt AA
(NR) OF Gus Milner A+
(NR) P Chance Chapman A
Philadelphia Phillies: 18-14
Arizona Diamondbacks: 21-10
Jamie Moyer (1-2 4.50 ERA, 1-1 3.74 ERA)
Max Scherzer (0-0 0.00 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups:
Victorino CF N/A
Dobbs 3B N/A
Utley 2B N/AHoward 1B N/ABurrell LF N/AJenkins RF N/ACoste C N/ABruntlett SS N/AMoyer P
Young CF 2/5, 1 RBI, .400/.333/.400
Drew SS 0/3
Byrnes LF 9/35, 3 HR, 4 RBI, .257/.297/.600
Jackson 1B 3/6, .500/.571/.667
Upton RF N/A
Reynolds 3B 2/4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .500/.500/1.250
Snyder C 0/6
Burke 2B 0/3
Scherzer P
The Phillies face a very tough test tonight. One, this is the best team in the National League. Arizona has the best record in baseball, and they're really a complete team. They're second in the NL in runs, second in team OPS, first in team ERA, both their starters and relievers. This is a complete team, and they're a legitimate threat to win the pennant this year. Not only that, top prospect Max Scherzer is making his rotation debut, and you never know what's going to happen when you face a pitcher you've never seen.
Arizona was not a team that treated the Phillies well last season. They were 1-5 against the D'Backs overall in 2007, and it took a pinch hit grand slam by the big guy to earn that victory. If the Phillies want to be the best, and they definitely have the potential to do so, it starts with beating the best in Arizona tonight.
Last night's post-series victory celebration was short lived, at least for one Flyer.
Shortly after the handshakes at center ice, R.J. Umberger was escorted out of the arena by Canadian police. It turns out he was a person of interest in four murder cases, ranging from April 26th to just last night. After rounds of questioning in custody, charges were officially pressed against Umberger.
"It turns out he was in fact the guy that scored eight goals this series. One of them was even a game winner. He is a serial goal scorer, and guys as sick as him need to be locked up for a very long time."
The detective went on later to say that Carey Price is being investigated as an accomplice. Neither Umberger nor Price's lawyers had any comment on the situation.
Martin Biron v. Carey Price
The Flyers have their second 3-1 series lead in the playoffs, and this time, they'll try to close it out much quicker. If they win tonight, they'll actually wrap up their series faster than Pittsburgh (or New York,) which I doubt many people thought was possible heading into the round. There's still one more game to win though, and the Flyers are really hoping they don't have to come back home.
Martin Biron will try to earn his 8th playoff victory tonight. He is basically winning this series for the Flyers, and he keeps getting better and better.
Speaking of goaltending, I really think Montreal mishandled this situation. I believe teams should pick one goalie or the other for the entire series. If a guy's struggling in a game, it's okay to take him out late, but now there's a decision to be made. Either go with the original goalie again in the next game, or make the switch for the duration of the playoffs. Going back to Carey Price might not be the best idea tonight, and it was a panic move when Jaroslav Halak started game four.
Although their goaltending situation is a bit murky right now, the Canadiens really have been playing pretty well lately. They're getting a lot of shots, and it took a lot of heart to make the comeback they did on Wednesday. The bounces just haven't gone their way, and Biron has been great. It's not going to be easy to close them out tonight, but the Flyers will have three chances. Hopefully, they don't need all of them again.
Bill Meltzer has his preview up.
San Francisco Giants: 13-16
Philadelphia Phillies: 16-13
Pat Misch (0-0 3.00 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Kyle Kendrick (2-2 5.13 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups:
Lewis LF N/A
Velez 2B N/A
Winn RF N/A
Molina C N/A
Rowand CF N/A
Bowker 1B N/A
Castillo 3B 2/3, .667/.667/1.000
Bocock SS N/A
Misch P
Victorino CF N/A
Bruntlett SS N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Jenkins RF 0/1
Feliz 3B N/A
Ruiz C N/A
Kendrick P
Aaron Rowand makes his return to Philadelphia, and that's probably going to be dominating the news this weekend. The real story here is how bad the Giants' offense is. That's just not a lineup to fear. Unfortunately for San Diego, it hasn't even been the worst in baseball this year. Fortunately for the Phillies, it's pretty damn close. Besides Winn, Rowand, and Molina, there isn't a veteran to worry about, with apologies to Jose Castillo. Hats off to Freddy Lewis for being the best of the rest. They're all pretty much AAAA guys, but Lewis is off to a fast start this year.
However, the Giants won't be short on pitching this weekend. The Phillies draw both Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, two young, rising stars for San Fran. Baserunners are tough to come by against these guys, and the Phillies' lineup will have to be at its best to earn wins in those games. On Sunday, Lincecum will take on Hamels, which was the pitching matchup in Lincecum's debut last year, almost one year to the day.
