Friday, May 23, 2008

Flyers Offseason Preview

After a tough 4-1 series loss to Pittsburgh in the Eastern Finals, the Flyers still have a lot to look forward to. They're young, talented, and they're going to win a Cup very soon. Will it be 2008-09? Let's see how the team looks right now.

Gagne (5.25)-Briere (6.5)-Lupul (2.311667)
Hartnell (4.2)-Richards (5.75)-Knuble (2.8)
Upshall (1.225)- No one-Kapanen (1.25)
Need a 4th line

Timonen (6.333333)- Coburn (1.1808)
Hatcher (3.5)-Kukkonen (.875)
Parent (.855)-No one

Biron (3.5)
Niittymaki (1.225)

Some other guys to throw in:
Gauthier (2.1)
Tolpeko (.492 on a 2 way deal)
Rathjie (3.5)
Carter (RFA)
Umberger (RFA)
Jones (RFA)
Cote (RFA)
Thoresen (RFA)
Potulny (RFA)
Guenin (RFA)
Prospal (UFA)
Smith (UFA)
Dowd (UFA)
Modry (UFA)

My estimates, assuming Tolpeko plays for the Phantoms, Goat is in the AHL or elsewhere and Rathje is on LTIR put the Flyers at 46.7558 million. The salary cap is expected to be around 56 million, which means the Flyers have just under 10 to spend. They need to get five players under contract to fill their lineup, and that's assuming they're just adding to what they have.

Priority #1 has to be re-signing Jeff Carter. He has awesome goal scoring potential, and he's developing more and more. He could still become a better scorer than Richards; he's never going to be quite the two way player, but he should score 30-40 goals regularly. He'll probably sign for about 5 million a year, putting the Flyers at 51.7558.

Steve Downie (.821667) and Claude Giroux (.850) should be able to play regularly, putting the Flyers at 53.427627. They would still need one more forward and one more defenseman.

Will that defenseman be Randy Jones? He's a RFA, and he's turning into a decent player. The Flyers could do worse than him on the third pair. Unless the Flyers get blown away by an offer, he'll probably be back.

That means they'll only need one more forward, which can easily be addressed. There are your 2008-09 Flyers. Are you satisfied? They'll be under the cap, and they'll probably get better even returning the same roster, but is that good enough? I don't want to get greedy, but returning the same defensemen might not be a good idea. It's a clear position to upgrade, but how does Holmgren do it? There isn't any money to spend, and there aren't really any good FA options anyway. A trade will have to be made, and that means sacrificing some depth at forward.

A few potential movers are Upshall (1.225,) Knuble (2.8) and even Lupul (2.311667.) They're cheap compared to the production they give you, and in the cases of Upshall and Lupul, they have room to grow. All three are popular players, and some fans wouldn't be happy with those moves. However, having as many good scorers as the Flyers do is a luxury, and teams generally try to deal from surpluses to improve holes.

It's going to be interesting no matter what happens. Will Jeff Carter come back? Can we squeeze in R.J. Umberger? Do we change captains? Does Hatch retire? We'll see.

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