Players can't actually sign on the dotted line until sometime next week, but that's not going to stop the 76ers from negotiating with free agents. Ed Stefanski has made it clear that he's going to spend the available money this summer, and I hope it's the right guy. Who are the available right guys?
Elton Brand, for one. He just opted out of the final year of his contract with the Clippers, and he's probably target #1. Although the team just drafted Marreese Speights, Brand gives them a legit low post threat, which opens up the rest of the offense. If Iguodala or someone can develop a consistent jump shot, Brand's game down low will really open that up.
Restricted free agents are tough to get in the NBA, and that's a significant hurdle to possibly landing Josh Smith. Smith is younger and more athletic, and those make him a very appealing target. His game is still developing, and he already posted a 17-8 season last year at the age of 22.
I would take either, but it also needs to be understood that both come with risks. Brand is obviously a huge injury risk because he just sat out 90% of last season with a serious injury. If he can come back healthy, the Sixers just made a good gamble. If he has some more problems, this city isn't seeing another NBA championship for a while. Smith is more of a mental gamble. He apparently loses focus at times and can disappear. He's a young guy, and the coaching staff and leaders of this team can probably help with that.
Beyond PF, Jose Calderon is another player out there. He's also a restricted free agent, and after trading away T.J. Ford, there's no way the Raptors let him walk. He would obviously be a valuable asset in the post-Miller era, which might begin sooner rather than later.
We'll see what happens. It's an exciting offseason to be a Sixers fan, and it's been quite a few years since someone could say that.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Flyers Do A Lot And Accomplish Very Little
The Flyers made several moves today, summed up here by Bill Meltzer.
To kick off the day, the Flyers added D Tim Ramholt from Calgary for Phantoms forward Kyle Greentree. You may remember Greentree from a couple games with the Flyers. He's a pretty big body, and he has a nice shootout move up on YouTube. Like a lot of forwards we have or had, there just wasn't much of a chance he could make an impact here with our depth.
Next, the Flyers placed D Denis Gauthier on waivers. They did this last year, and he cleared waivers and landed on the Phantoms. Paul Holmgren apparently promised he would try to avoid this, so he was waived with the intention of buying him out. That'll take a good chunk off the salary cap, but he'll still count against it a little. There are conflicting reports.
Finally, the Flyers traded D Janne Niskala to Tampa for a 6th round pick. Niskala was just acquired last week, and it's kind of a bad reflection on the front office to have to do this. They must not have done their homework when acquiring Niskala and weren't fully aware of his demands to have a one-way contract. Either way, it doesn't matter much, but the situation probably wasn't handed correctly.
Free agency kicks off tomorrow, and if you remember last year, the action is fast and furious. If you blink, you might miss a signing or two. This year, there aren't as many high-profile targets, but that's not going to stop teams from paying a lot of money to get players.
The Flyers probably won't be active. They won't be making a big splash, and you can definitely rule out guys like Brian Campbell and Wade Redden. Those guys are getting big bucks, and the Flyers don't have the money to spend like last summer. We should find out if Hatch is retiring soon, and that decision will impact what the team does.
To kick off the day, the Flyers added D Tim Ramholt from Calgary for Phantoms forward Kyle Greentree. You may remember Greentree from a couple games with the Flyers. He's a pretty big body, and he has a nice shootout move up on YouTube. Like a lot of forwards we have or had, there just wasn't much of a chance he could make an impact here with our depth.
Next, the Flyers placed D Denis Gauthier on waivers. They did this last year, and he cleared waivers and landed on the Phantoms. Paul Holmgren apparently promised he would try to avoid this, so he was waived with the intention of buying him out. That'll take a good chunk off the salary cap, but he'll still count against it a little. There are conflicting reports.
Finally, the Flyers traded D Janne Niskala to Tampa for a 6th round pick. Niskala was just acquired last week, and it's kind of a bad reflection on the front office to have to do this. They must not have done their homework when acquiring Niskala and weren't fully aware of his demands to have a one-way contract. Either way, it doesn't matter much, but the situation probably wasn't handed correctly.
Free agency kicks off tomorrow, and if you remember last year, the action is fast and furious. If you blink, you might miss a signing or two. This year, there aren't as many high-profile targets, but that's not going to stop teams from paying a lot of money to get players.
The Flyers probably won't be active. They won't be making a big splash, and you can definitely rule out guys like Brian Campbell and Wade Redden. Those guys are getting big bucks, and the Flyers don't have the money to spend like last summer. We should find out if Hatch is retiring soon, and that decision will impact what the team does.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Game 83: Phillies at Rangers (3/3)
Philadelphia Phillies: 44-38
Texas Rangers: 41-41
Jamie Moyer (7-5 4.09 ERA, 14-7 4.95 ERA)
Eric Hurley (0-1 4.24 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Feliz 3B N/A
Werth RF N/A
Jenkins DH N/A
Ruiz C N/A
Kinsler 2B 1/3, .333/.333/.667
Young SS 20/54, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .370/.424/.574
Hamilton RF 1/3, .333/.333/.333
Bradley DH 7/17, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .412/.444/.941
Byrd CF 2/5, 1 RBI, .400/.400/.800
Ramirez C N/A
Boggs LF N/A
Saltalamacchia 1B N/A
Duran 3B N/A
The offense has answered the bell this series, and now it's time for Jamie Moyer to do the same. The Phillies need this series win to break this losing streak, and he came close to winning his last start. He can't make any mistakes like the one he made to Emil Brown though. The Rangers can and will crush anything that hangs over the plate. They're a dangerous lineup, and Moyer has to have his A game.
The offense could be coming out of their slump at the right time. With Atlanta, New York and some other good teams coming up before the break, they'll need all the runs they can get. The Phillies could temporarily bury the non-Marlins competitors this week if they get hot. Once again, I'm not counting anyone out. However, putting them back in a 6, 7 game hole would be nice.
Texas Rangers: 41-41
Jamie Moyer (7-5 4.09 ERA, 14-7 4.95 ERA)
Eric Hurley (0-1 4.24 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Feliz 3B N/A
Werth RF N/A
Jenkins DH N/A
Ruiz C N/A
Kinsler 2B 1/3, .333/.333/.667
Young SS 20/54, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .370/.424/.574
Hamilton RF 1/3, .333/.333/.333
Bradley DH 7/17, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .412/.444/.941
Byrd CF 2/5, 1 RBI, .400/.400/.800
Ramirez C N/A
Boggs LF N/A
Saltalamacchia 1B N/A
Duran 3B N/A
The offense has answered the bell this series, and now it's time for Jamie Moyer to do the same. The Phillies need this series win to break this losing streak, and he came close to winning his last start. He can't make any mistakes like the one he made to Emil Brown though. The Rangers can and will crush anything that hangs over the plate. They're a dangerous lineup, and Moyer has to have his A game.
The offense could be coming out of their slump at the right time. With Atlanta, New York and some other good teams coming up before the break, they'll need all the runs they can get. The Phillies could temporarily bury the non-Marlins competitors this week if they get hot. Once again, I'm not counting anyone out. However, putting them back in a 6, 7 game hole would be nice.
Saturday, June 28, 2008
First Inning Fun
It's time for another Excel project, even though my first one isn't officially completed yet. This one wasn't nearly as time consuming, and I pretty much wrapped it all up during the Phillies loss last night.
A lot of fans have made the observation that Phillies pitchers struggle in the first inning. If this is the case, it's obviously a bad thing. These pitchers are putting their team in a hole immediately, and it gets tough having to fight back over and over again. Don't get me wrong; there are maybe a handful of teams that can battle back like the Phillies, but it grows tiresome for everyone.
I wanted to see just how bad they really are. I looked at the box scores for every game of the season to date. I marked down whether or not they won, lost, how many earned and unearned runs were given up in the first inning, who picked, and just for kicks, how many runs were given up the rest of the game. I haven't done anything with the last part yet, and I doubt I ever will.
Before I get to the team numbers, I'm going to admit right now that they don't tell you much. I don't have the numbers for other teams, so I don't know how they compare to the rest of the league. Maybe giving up first inning runs is a leaguewide issue, and the Phillies don't look as bad compared to everyone else. As it stands, things aren't pretty. They give up .85 runs per first inning, .79 of which are earned. If they did that every inning, it would be a 7.11 ERA. That's definitely not acceptable.
The Phillies are 13-23 when pitchers give up a run or more in the first inning. In 36 games out of 81, they've been put in a hole, sometimes before they even step up to the plate. I hope that they can cut down in this eventually because it's clear that it decreases their odds of winning; they post a 30-15 record when they don't give up runs in the first inning.
Are all Phillies pitchers offenders? Yes. Even Cole Hamels gives up his share of first inning runs. He has given up 8 earn runs in 16 first innings, which means he gives up .5 ER per 1st for a 4.50 ERA. Compared to his ERA in innings 2-9 of 3.06, it becomes clear that the first inning is not his best. He has a .812 OPS against in the 1st, which is higher than all but two other innings. The Phillies are 8-3 when he gets out of the first inning scoreless, and 2-3 when he doesn't.
Jamie Moyer is an interesting case. He has the fewest outings in which he doesn't give up a first inning run with four. However, they are all multiple run innings. Apparently, if he's going to get hit early, it'll be hard. Is it a coincidence that he gives up first inning runs less than everyone else? Maybe there's something to the notion that he's more prepared than other pitchers. Because of the multi-run innings, his first inning ERA is at 5.63. I'm thrilled that he has posted a 4.09 ERA this far, but it would be great if he could push it even closer to the 3.78 mark he has after the first. The Phillies are 2-2 when he gets knocked around in the first and 8-4 when he doesn't give up any runs.
Kyle Kendrick is the only pitcher in the rotation that is above .500 when he allows a run in the first inning. At 4-3, he proves he can hang in there even if he gets off to a rough start, and I'm sure the team leading run support doesn't hurt either. Kendrick gives up .69 runs per 1st, which equals a 6.19 ERA. Even though it's nice to see him battle through bad spots, it would be nice to see him put up more first inning zeros. The Phillies are 8-1 when he pitches a scoreless first, which is the best record in the rotation.
Adam Eaton, as fans might expect, is a frequent offender of giving up first inning runs. He's given up 13 of them in 16 first innings, which is good for .81 runs per and a 7.31 ERA. Unfortunately, all of those runs are earned, so it's not like he's getting hurt by his defense. The Phillies are 3-5 when he gets touched in the first, and 4-4 when he doesn't. His ERA the rest of the way is only 4.35, and I'm sure the Phillies and fans would be ecstatic if he could limit the damage in the first. Why is the team only 4-4 when he doesn't give up any first inning runs? He gets by far the worst run support.
If giving up first inning runs was a crime, Brett Myers would be serving a life sentence. He has been terrible in the first inning this season, and it's kind of funny that so many people want him to move back to the bullpen. If he gives up 1.29 runs in his first inning every time, how does that make an effective reliever? He's the only pitcher in the rotation that has given up first inning runs more often than not, and that is absolutely disastrous. Even his 4.68 ERA the rest of the game isn't up to the level anyone thought he would be at this year. Just brutal.
This is a clear area for the Phillies to improve. I don't know if just yanking Myers from the rotation is going to get it done because all of them frequently get into early trouble. It's up to Rich Dubee and the players themselves to figure out the problem. Do they need to throw more pitches in warm ups? I don't know how you can just get people to focus sooner, but it's clear that there's something wrong that needs to be corrected.
A lot of fans have made the observation that Phillies pitchers struggle in the first inning. If this is the case, it's obviously a bad thing. These pitchers are putting their team in a hole immediately, and it gets tough having to fight back over and over again. Don't get me wrong; there are maybe a handful of teams that can battle back like the Phillies, but it grows tiresome for everyone.
I wanted to see just how bad they really are. I looked at the box scores for every game of the season to date. I marked down whether or not they won, lost, how many earned and unearned runs were given up in the first inning, who picked, and just for kicks, how many runs were given up the rest of the game. I haven't done anything with the last part yet, and I doubt I ever will.
Before I get to the team numbers, I'm going to admit right now that they don't tell you much. I don't have the numbers for other teams, so I don't know how they compare to the rest of the league. Maybe giving up first inning runs is a leaguewide issue, and the Phillies don't look as bad compared to everyone else. As it stands, things aren't pretty. They give up .85 runs per first inning, .79 of which are earned. If they did that every inning, it would be a 7.11 ERA. That's definitely not acceptable.
The Phillies are 13-23 when pitchers give up a run or more in the first inning. In 36 games out of 81, they've been put in a hole, sometimes before they even step up to the plate. I hope that they can cut down in this eventually because it's clear that it decreases their odds of winning; they post a 30-15 record when they don't give up runs in the first inning.
Are all Phillies pitchers offenders? Yes. Even Cole Hamels gives up his share of first inning runs. He has given up 8 earn runs in 16 first innings, which means he gives up .5 ER per 1st for a 4.50 ERA. Compared to his ERA in innings 2-9 of 3.06, it becomes clear that the first inning is not his best. He has a .812 OPS against in the 1st, which is higher than all but two other innings. The Phillies are 8-3 when he gets out of the first inning scoreless, and 2-3 when he doesn't.
Jamie Moyer is an interesting case. He has the fewest outings in which he doesn't give up a first inning run with four. However, they are all multiple run innings. Apparently, if he's going to get hit early, it'll be hard. Is it a coincidence that he gives up first inning runs less than everyone else? Maybe there's something to the notion that he's more prepared than other pitchers. Because of the multi-run innings, his first inning ERA is at 5.63. I'm thrilled that he has posted a 4.09 ERA this far, but it would be great if he could push it even closer to the 3.78 mark he has after the first. The Phillies are 2-2 when he gets knocked around in the first and 8-4 when he doesn't give up any runs.
Kyle Kendrick is the only pitcher in the rotation that is above .500 when he allows a run in the first inning. At 4-3, he proves he can hang in there even if he gets off to a rough start, and I'm sure the team leading run support doesn't hurt either. Kendrick gives up .69 runs per 1st, which equals a 6.19 ERA. Even though it's nice to see him battle through bad spots, it would be nice to see him put up more first inning zeros. The Phillies are 8-1 when he pitches a scoreless first, which is the best record in the rotation.
Adam Eaton, as fans might expect, is a frequent offender of giving up first inning runs. He's given up 13 of them in 16 first innings, which is good for .81 runs per and a 7.31 ERA. Unfortunately, all of those runs are earned, so it's not like he's getting hurt by his defense. The Phillies are 3-5 when he gets touched in the first, and 4-4 when he doesn't. His ERA the rest of the way is only 4.35, and I'm sure the Phillies and fans would be ecstatic if he could limit the damage in the first. Why is the team only 4-4 when he doesn't give up any first inning runs? He gets by far the worst run support.
If giving up first inning runs was a crime, Brett Myers would be serving a life sentence. He has been terrible in the first inning this season, and it's kind of funny that so many people want him to move back to the bullpen. If he gives up 1.29 runs in his first inning every time, how does that make an effective reliever? He's the only pitcher in the rotation that has given up first inning runs more often than not, and that is absolutely disastrous. Even his 4.68 ERA the rest of the game isn't up to the level anyone thought he would be at this year. Just brutal.
This is a clear area for the Phillies to improve. I don't know if just yanking Myers from the rotation is going to get it done because all of them frequently get into early trouble. It's up to Rich Dubee and the players themselves to figure out the problem. Do they need to throw more pitches in warm ups? I don't know how you can just get people to focus sooner, but it's clear that there's something wrong that needs to be corrected.
Game 82: Phillies at Rangers (2/3)
Philadelphia Phillies: 43-38
Texas Rangers: 41-40
Cole Hamels (7-5 3.27 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Vicente Padilla (10-3 3.74 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard DH N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Dobbs 3B N/A
Coste C N/A
Jenkins RF 6/7, 1 RBI, .353/.389/.529
Bruntlett 1B N/A
Kinsler 2B N/A
Young SS N/A
Hamilton RF 0/2, .000/.333/.000
Bradley DH 0/3
Byrd CF 0/2
Boggs LF N/A
Ramirez 1B N/A
Saltalamaccia C 2/3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .667/.667/1.667
Vazquez 3B N/A
The Phillies face off against their old teammate for the first time tonight. Only two Phillies have ever faced him, but we'll see if the guys that played with Padilla know how to approach him. He's having a very good season, which comes as a surprise to almost all. He hasn't been this good since about 2003, and this is a huge bounce back from last season when his ERA was almost exactly two runs higher.
I truly believe it's possible that Myers made his last start for a while last night. He got a quick hook, and it might've been one of his worst outings of the year. The Phillies have to be getting fed up with what he's giving them, and they need to stop throwing away games every five days. I was in favor of just letting him work it out before, but I'm not sure how much longer they can wait.
Texas Rangers: 41-40
Cole Hamels (7-5 3.27 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Vicente Padilla (10-3 3.74 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard DH N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Dobbs 3B N/A
Coste C N/A
Jenkins RF 6/7, 1 RBI, .353/.389/.529
Bruntlett 1B N/A
Kinsler 2B N/A
Young SS N/A
Hamilton RF 0/2, .000/.333/.000
Bradley DH 0/3
Byrd CF 0/2
Boggs LF N/A
Ramirez 1B N/A
Saltalamaccia C 2/3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .667/.667/1.667
Vazquez 3B N/A
The Phillies face off against their old teammate for the first time tonight. Only two Phillies have ever faced him, but we'll see if the guys that played with Padilla know how to approach him. He's having a very good season, which comes as a surprise to almost all. He hasn't been this good since about 2003, and this is a huge bounce back from last season when his ERA was almost exactly two runs higher.
I truly believe it's possible that Myers made his last start for a while last night. He got a quick hook, and it might've been one of his worst outings of the year. The Phillies have to be getting fed up with what he's giving them, and they need to stop throwing away games every five days. I was in favor of just letting him work it out before, but I'm not sure how much longer they can wait.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Game 81: Phillies at Rangers (1/3)
Philadelphia Phillies: 43-37
Texas Rangers: 40-40
Brett Myers (3-9 5.51 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Kason Gabbard (2-3 4.96 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Rollins SS
Victorino CF
Utley 2B
Howard DH
Burrell LF
Werth RF
Feliz 3B
Coste C
Bruntlett 1B
I don't know because Baseball-Reference isn't working.
This is it for the Phillies' offense. If they don't hit and absolutely smash Texas' pitching, I'm going to get worried. The Rangers can put up as many runs as they want on the board, but they're only at .500 because they can't pitch. Gabbard is hittable, and even the lefties should be able to knock in some runs off of him.
There's not much more to say. They still have a two game lead, but the division is gaining ground. The Phillies are better than this, and they just need to show it. Now is as good a time as any. This is their last interleague series, and they have to deal with two division rivals after leaving Texas.
Texas Rangers: 40-40
Brett Myers (3-9 5.51 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Kason Gabbard (2-3 4.96 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Rollins SS
Victorino CF
Utley 2B
Howard DH
Burrell LF
Werth RF
Feliz 3B
Coste C
Bruntlett 1B
I don't know because Baseball-Reference isn't working.
This is it for the Phillies' offense. If they don't hit and absolutely smash Texas' pitching, I'm going to get worried. The Rangers can put up as many runs as they want on the board, but they're only at .500 because they can't pitch. Gabbard is hittable, and even the lefties should be able to knock in some runs off of him.
There's not much more to say. They still have a two game lead, but the division is gaining ground. The Phillies are better than this, and they just need to show it. Now is as good a time as any. This is their last interleague series, and they have to deal with two division rivals after leaving Texas.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Blogging the NBA Draft
Let's do this. Three picks already on the board, but that's not going to stop me.
30. Boston Celtics: J.R. Giddens, G, New Mexico- And we're done!
29. Detroit Pistons: D.J. White, PF, Indiana- With Thompson off the board several hours ago, the Pistons looked for another big, physical player to improve the front court.
28. Memphis Grizzlies: Donte' Greene, F, Syracuse- Like Arthur, you just have to make the value pick at some point. The Grizz took a chance with Gay becoming a good player, and they're taking a similar chance with Greene.
27. Portland Trailblazers: Darrell Arthur, PF, Kansas- The kidney issue is very serious, but there's a point where you have to take the risk and make the value pick. Portland was supposed to get this pick, but NO might've kept it.
26. San Antonio Spurs: George Hill, PG, IUPUI- The Spurs make some interesting choices, but you have to trust them to do the right thing, right?
25. Houston Rockets: Nicolas Batum, SG, France- Like I mentioned before, Houston has a solid roster, up and down. They just needed someone that can come off the bench for now.
24. Seattle SuperSonics: Foreign guy- This is kind of surprising. I guess they'll keep him where he is, but I'm not sure how he'll fit in.
23. Utah Jazz: Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State- It's no secret that they wanted to add a C and get bigger, and Koufos was supposed to go higher in the draft.
22. Orlando Magic: Courtney Lee, SG, Western Kentucky- Almost everyone called this before the draft, and I listened to them and did as well.
21. New Jersey Nets: Ryan Anderson, PF, California- They really have a young, offensive minded frontcourt now.
20. Charlotte Bobcats: Alexi Ajinca, FC, France- Larry Brown likes rookies that don't play, and he found one that really won't.
19. Cleveland Cavaliers: J.J. Hickson, PF, North Carolina State- Hickson is one of my favorite players in this draft. He got a bit overlooked because of their mediocre team, but he's a talented forward.
Pretty big trade. Blazers get Diogu and Bayless for Rush and Jack.
18. Washington Wizards: JaVale McGee, C, Nevada- GOT IT.
17. Indiana Pacers: Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown- He should've come out last year, but he's got a nice shot at instant playing time in Indianspolis. Decent pick.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Marreese Speights, FC, Florida- I don't mind it. I would've preferred Arthur, but Speights has some good potential. He's got decent size, he's athletic, and he'll be able to get eased into the game with a few minutes off the bench early.
15. Phoenix Suns: Robin Lopez, C, Stanford- I guess he brings the kind of defensive presence they want their C to bring in the post D'Antoni days. It's too bad Shaq is literally blocking him.
14. Golden State Warriors: Anthony Randolph, PF, Lousiana State- Randolph is a pretty big risk with some pretty big red flags. However, you can't question his athletic ability, and he should fit in the up tempo offense in Oakland.
13. Portland Trailblazers: Brandon Rush, SG, Kansas- I had them taking a similar kind of player in Alexander, but he's obviously gone. Rush is a good shooter that should be able to help out.
12. Sacramento Kings: Jason Thompson, PF, Rider- This is the highest someone from Rider has ever been taken in anything. Vietnam draft, dodgeball, NBA, etc.
11. Indianapolis Pacers: Jerryd Bayless, G, Arizona- Like Lopez, the Pacers couldn't pass this pick up. He could also make great trade bait if they really don't want him.
10. New Jersey Nets: Brook Lopez, C, Stanford- This pick was a no brainer with him still on the board. A lot of people expected him to go a bit higher, but this sounds about right.
I didn't think the Sixers would trade up and they didn't work him out, but the Sixers might want to think about trading up for Bayless. I think he would be a good fit.
9. Charlotte Bobcats: D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas- I'm not sure why you would take a backup PG with a top 10 pick, but Larry Brown has proven he knows what he's doing, I guess. I expect a trade.
8. Milwaukee Bucks: Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia- Blast. I knew they were interested in him, but I really thought they should take a PG. Shouldn't have gone against conventional wisdom.
7. Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana- Does this count as a win in my mock draft? I said they liked him, but they just didn't trade up to get him. This was a slam dunk when he fell to 7.
6. New York Knicks: Danilo Gallinari, SF, Italy- Gallinari wanted the Knicks, and they apparently wanted him. I wonder how the NY fans will react to a guy that's not a huge name college star being taken.
5. Memphis Grizzlies: Kevin Love, PF, California-Los Angeles- Nailed another pick in my mock draft. Chris Wallace made a nice pick here.
4. Seattle SuperSonics: Russell Westbrook, G, California-Los Angeles- He's going to get traded, right? The Clippers liked either Westbrook or Gordon, so maybe they make a deal to get him.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: O.J. Mayo, G, Southern California- Hey Al Jefferson, can you make sure no one puts a drink on my sound system?
2. Miami Heat: Michael Beasley, PF, Kansas State- Pat Riley isn't insane quite yet. He makes the right pick. Will he get traded? I don't know. I hear they wanted a lot for this pick.
1. Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis- Everyone predicted this would happen, and it did. Personally, I liked Beasley.
30. Boston Celtics: J.R. Giddens, G, New Mexico- And we're done!
29. Detroit Pistons: D.J. White, PF, Indiana- With Thompson off the board several hours ago, the Pistons looked for another big, physical player to improve the front court.
28. Memphis Grizzlies: Donte' Greene, F, Syracuse- Like Arthur, you just have to make the value pick at some point. The Grizz took a chance with Gay becoming a good player, and they're taking a similar chance with Greene.
27. Portland Trailblazers: Darrell Arthur, PF, Kansas- The kidney issue is very serious, but there's a point where you have to take the risk and make the value pick. Portland was supposed to get this pick, but NO might've kept it.
26. San Antonio Spurs: George Hill, PG, IUPUI- The Spurs make some interesting choices, but you have to trust them to do the right thing, right?
25. Houston Rockets: Nicolas Batum, SG, France- Like I mentioned before, Houston has a solid roster, up and down. They just needed someone that can come off the bench for now.
24. Seattle SuperSonics: Foreign guy- This is kind of surprising. I guess they'll keep him where he is, but I'm not sure how he'll fit in.
23. Utah Jazz: Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State- It's no secret that they wanted to add a C and get bigger, and Koufos was supposed to go higher in the draft.
22. Orlando Magic: Courtney Lee, SG, Western Kentucky- Almost everyone called this before the draft, and I listened to them and did as well.
21. New Jersey Nets: Ryan Anderson, PF, California- They really have a young, offensive minded frontcourt now.
20. Charlotte Bobcats: Alexi Ajinca, FC, France- Larry Brown likes rookies that don't play, and he found one that really won't.
19. Cleveland Cavaliers: J.J. Hickson, PF, North Carolina State- Hickson is one of my favorite players in this draft. He got a bit overlooked because of their mediocre team, but he's a talented forward.
Pretty big trade. Blazers get Diogu and Bayless for Rush and Jack.
18. Washington Wizards: JaVale McGee, C, Nevada- GOT IT.
17. Indiana Pacers: Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown- He should've come out last year, but he's got a nice shot at instant playing time in Indianspolis. Decent pick.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Marreese Speights, FC, Florida- I don't mind it. I would've preferred Arthur, but Speights has some good potential. He's got decent size, he's athletic, and he'll be able to get eased into the game with a few minutes off the bench early.
15. Phoenix Suns: Robin Lopez, C, Stanford- I guess he brings the kind of defensive presence they want their C to bring in the post D'Antoni days. It's too bad Shaq is literally blocking him.
14. Golden State Warriors: Anthony Randolph, PF, Lousiana State- Randolph is a pretty big risk with some pretty big red flags. However, you can't question his athletic ability, and he should fit in the up tempo offense in Oakland.
13. Portland Trailblazers: Brandon Rush, SG, Kansas- I had them taking a similar kind of player in Alexander, but he's obviously gone. Rush is a good shooter that should be able to help out.
12. Sacramento Kings: Jason Thompson, PF, Rider- This is the highest someone from Rider has ever been taken in anything. Vietnam draft, dodgeball, NBA, etc.
11. Indianapolis Pacers: Jerryd Bayless, G, Arizona- Like Lopez, the Pacers couldn't pass this pick up. He could also make great trade bait if they really don't want him.
10. New Jersey Nets: Brook Lopez, C, Stanford- This pick was a no brainer with him still on the board. A lot of people expected him to go a bit higher, but this sounds about right.
I didn't think the Sixers would trade up and they didn't work him out, but the Sixers might want to think about trading up for Bayless. I think he would be a good fit.
9. Charlotte Bobcats: D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas- I'm not sure why you would take a backup PG with a top 10 pick, but Larry Brown has proven he knows what he's doing, I guess. I expect a trade.
8. Milwaukee Bucks: Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia- Blast. I knew they were interested in him, but I really thought they should take a PG. Shouldn't have gone against conventional wisdom.
7. Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana- Does this count as a win in my mock draft? I said they liked him, but they just didn't trade up to get him. This was a slam dunk when he fell to 7.
6. New York Knicks: Danilo Gallinari, SF, Italy- Gallinari wanted the Knicks, and they apparently wanted him. I wonder how the NY fans will react to a guy that's not a huge name college star being taken.
5. Memphis Grizzlies: Kevin Love, PF, California-Los Angeles- Nailed another pick in my mock draft. Chris Wallace made a nice pick here.
4. Seattle SuperSonics: Russell Westbrook, G, California-Los Angeles- He's going to get traded, right? The Clippers liked either Westbrook or Gordon, so maybe they make a deal to get him.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: O.J. Mayo, G, Southern California- Hey Al Jefferson, can you make sure no one puts a drink on my sound system?
2. Miami Heat: Michael Beasley, PF, Kansas State- Pat Riley isn't insane quite yet. He makes the right pick. Will he get traded? I don't know. I hear they wanted a lot for this pick.
1. Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis- Everyone predicted this would happen, and it did. Personally, I liked Beasley.
NBA Mock Draft
The draft is about to kick off, so let's get things started.
1. Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis- I would take Beasley, but the Bulls are leaning towards the hometown kid. They're in a competition with Memphis to determine who can invest the most money into the PG position.
2. Miami Heat: Michael Beasley, PF, Kansas State- I really think Riley's mumblings about his attitude is just some trick to see what teams will offer to take this number two pick. There's no doubt he goes #2, right?
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: O.J. Mayo, G, Southern California- Hey Kevin McHale, can you stand by the aquarium and make sure no one taps on the glass?
4. Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon, G, Indiana- According to Chad Ford, the Clippers and Sonics are swapping picks and stuff if Gordon is still on the board here. Gordon is still on the board here.
5. Memphis Grizzlies: Kevin Love, PF, California-Los Angeles- They're in desperate need of a low post presence, and Love may be able to provide that.
6. New York Knicks: Jerryd Bayless, G, Arizona- Bayless has top five talent, so the Knicks will be excited about getting him one pick later. They need help all over the floor, but why not start on eliminating a backcourt rotation of Marbury, Crawford and Robinson?
7. Seattle SuperSonics: Brook Lopez, C, Stanford- They have Kevin Durant to do the chucking, so Lopez can hide his low upside as a second option for Seattle or wherever they may play.
8. Milwaukee Bucks: Russell Westbrook, G, California-Los Angeles- I pointed this out in last year's mock, and I'm going to again. You need a PG. Take one that can at least feign playing the position.
9. Charlotte Bobcats: Robin Lopez, C, Stanford- One of two things will happen with this pick. Either Larry Brown trades it for Eric Snow, or he takes someone who won't play next year. At least this horrible overdraft fits his system.
10. New Jersey Nets: Danilo Gallinari, SF, Italy- He wanted to go in the top ten to either NY or NJ, and the Nets will appease him whether or not they think he improves the team.
11. Indiana Pacers: Anthony Randolph, PF, Lousiana State- They traded one troubled forward to the Raptors, so they need to nab another one to fill in. Randolph fits that bill.
12. Sacramento Kings: D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas- There's a consensus that the Kings need a PG. If you look at your roster, you will see this is one of many needs.
13. Portland Trailblazers: Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia- They really like Alexander, and they want to trade up to get him. My hilarious overdraft of Brook's Robin allows this to happen.
14. Golden State Warriors: Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State- He may be a C, but Koufos has the athleticism Nelson looks for to run his system. They also love drafting tall players that don't pan out, but the Warriors are probably hoping to break that trend.
15. Phoenix Suns: Donte' Greene, F, Syracuse- Why not? He has nuclear athleticism, and he can hit some shots. A lot of people believe they'll take a polished player, but I'm moving away from the trend.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Darrell Arthur, PF, Kansas- He was one of two players that I said are pretty secure at #16, so they'll take him. Reports are saying they're leaning in his direction.
17. Indiana Pacers: Marreese Speights, FC, Florida- They already took Randolph, but they have a better shot at getting one good forward out of this draft if they keep taking them.
18. Washington Wizards: JaVale McGee, C, Nevada- All indications are that if they stay put, they want to take a big man. McGee is a pretty big man with some scoring ability.
19. Cleveland Cavaliers: DeAndre Jordan, C, Texas A&M- Although they made a big trade at the deadline to try and get LeBron some help, they failed to do so in a major way. They still need a man in the middle.
20. Charlotte Bobcats: Mario Chalmers, PG, Kansas- Skin-NER!
21. New Jersey Nets: Brandon Rush, GF, Kansas- I don't even know if he fits here, but he's fallen way too far. They can't pass up on this value.
22. Orlando Magic: Courtney Lee, SG, Western Kentucky- He hit a huge game winning shot for WKU last season, and now he can make some game winning deferments to Howard or Lewis.
23. Utah Jazz: Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown- It's pretty clear that they're looking to add some muscle, and there's no better way to do it than with this C who stayed in college one year too long.
24. Seattle SuperSonics: Nicolas Batum, SG, France- I gave them a C earlier, so now they can use their second pick on a G that may or may not be a good player.
25. Houston Rockets: Chris Douglas-Roberts, GF, Memphis- Houston has a pretty decent lineup, and that resulted in that long winning streak that amounted to nothing. CDR can shoot and will be a good option off the bench.
26. San Antonio Spurs: Alexis Ajinca, C, France- The Spurs will laugh all the way to the bank with another foreign player. I've said I don't like him, but with the 26th pick, you might as well take a guy with upside.
27. Portland Trailblazers: Ante Tomic, C, Croatia- I've got to give credit to the draft guys who do the dirty work. They've identified Tomic as a player the Blazers really like.
28. Memphis Grizzlies: Bill Walker, SG, Kansas State- I already gave them one big player, and I don't feel like giving them another. He's a bit of an injury risk, but he can certainly play basketball.
29. Detroit Pistons: Jason Thompson, FC, Rider- Although he comes from a small school in New Jersey, his toughness is what Detroit always covets in draft choices. He'll fill in well off the bench.
30. Boston Celtics: Ryan Anderson, PF, California- He's probably the best player available, and Boston doesn't have any immediate holes to fill.
That's it. Now I'm going to hustle and start with pick by pick analysis.
1. Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis- I would take Beasley, but the Bulls are leaning towards the hometown kid. They're in a competition with Memphis to determine who can invest the most money into the PG position.
2. Miami Heat: Michael Beasley, PF, Kansas State- I really think Riley's mumblings about his attitude is just some trick to see what teams will offer to take this number two pick. There's no doubt he goes #2, right?
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: O.J. Mayo, G, Southern California- Hey Kevin McHale, can you stand by the aquarium and make sure no one taps on the glass?
4. Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon, G, Indiana- According to Chad Ford, the Clippers and Sonics are swapping picks and stuff if Gordon is still on the board here. Gordon is still on the board here.
5. Memphis Grizzlies: Kevin Love, PF, California-Los Angeles- They're in desperate need of a low post presence, and Love may be able to provide that.
6. New York Knicks: Jerryd Bayless, G, Arizona- Bayless has top five talent, so the Knicks will be excited about getting him one pick later. They need help all over the floor, but why not start on eliminating a backcourt rotation of Marbury, Crawford and Robinson?
7. Seattle SuperSonics: Brook Lopez, C, Stanford- They have Kevin Durant to do the chucking, so Lopez can hide his low upside as a second option for Seattle or wherever they may play.
8. Milwaukee Bucks: Russell Westbrook, G, California-Los Angeles- I pointed this out in last year's mock, and I'm going to again. You need a PG. Take one that can at least feign playing the position.
9. Charlotte Bobcats: Robin Lopez, C, Stanford- One of two things will happen with this pick. Either Larry Brown trades it for Eric Snow, or he takes someone who won't play next year. At least this horrible overdraft fits his system.
10. New Jersey Nets: Danilo Gallinari, SF, Italy- He wanted to go in the top ten to either NY or NJ, and the Nets will appease him whether or not they think he improves the team.
11. Indiana Pacers: Anthony Randolph, PF, Lousiana State- They traded one troubled forward to the Raptors, so they need to nab another one to fill in. Randolph fits that bill.
12. Sacramento Kings: D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas- There's a consensus that the Kings need a PG. If you look at your roster, you will see this is one of many needs.
13. Portland Trailblazers: Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia- They really like Alexander, and they want to trade up to get him. My hilarious overdraft of Brook's Robin allows this to happen.
14. Golden State Warriors: Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State- He may be a C, but Koufos has the athleticism Nelson looks for to run his system. They also love drafting tall players that don't pan out, but the Warriors are probably hoping to break that trend.
15. Phoenix Suns: Donte' Greene, F, Syracuse- Why not? He has nuclear athleticism, and he can hit some shots. A lot of people believe they'll take a polished player, but I'm moving away from the trend.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Darrell Arthur, PF, Kansas- He was one of two players that I said are pretty secure at #16, so they'll take him. Reports are saying they're leaning in his direction.
17. Indiana Pacers: Marreese Speights, FC, Florida- They already took Randolph, but they have a better shot at getting one good forward out of this draft if they keep taking them.
18. Washington Wizards: JaVale McGee, C, Nevada- All indications are that if they stay put, they want to take a big man. McGee is a pretty big man with some scoring ability.
19. Cleveland Cavaliers: DeAndre Jordan, C, Texas A&M- Although they made a big trade at the deadline to try and get LeBron some help, they failed to do so in a major way. They still need a man in the middle.
20. Charlotte Bobcats: Mario Chalmers, PG, Kansas- Skin-NER!
21. New Jersey Nets: Brandon Rush, GF, Kansas- I don't even know if he fits here, but he's fallen way too far. They can't pass up on this value.
22. Orlando Magic: Courtney Lee, SG, Western Kentucky- He hit a huge game winning shot for WKU last season, and now he can make some game winning deferments to Howard or Lewis.
23. Utah Jazz: Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown- It's pretty clear that they're looking to add some muscle, and there's no better way to do it than with this C who stayed in college one year too long.
24. Seattle SuperSonics: Nicolas Batum, SG, France- I gave them a C earlier, so now they can use their second pick on a G that may or may not be a good player.
25. Houston Rockets: Chris Douglas-Roberts, GF, Memphis- Houston has a pretty decent lineup, and that resulted in that long winning streak that amounted to nothing. CDR can shoot and will be a good option off the bench.
26. San Antonio Spurs: Alexis Ajinca, C, France- The Spurs will laugh all the way to the bank with another foreign player. I've said I don't like him, but with the 26th pick, you might as well take a guy with upside.
27. Portland Trailblazers: Ante Tomic, C, Croatia- I've got to give credit to the draft guys who do the dirty work. They've identified Tomic as a player the Blazers really like.
28. Memphis Grizzlies: Bill Walker, SG, Kansas State- I already gave them one big player, and I don't feel like giving them another. He's a bit of an injury risk, but he can certainly play basketball.
29. Detroit Pistons: Jason Thompson, FC, Rider- Although he comes from a small school in New Jersey, his toughness is what Detroit always covets in draft choices. He'll fill in well off the bench.
30. Boston Celtics: Ryan Anderson, PF, California- He's probably the best player available, and Boston doesn't have any immediate holes to fill.
That's it. Now I'm going to hustle and start with pick by pick analysis.
76ers Draft Preview
Here's how this works. I've already done a paragraph on each player the Sixers have worked out, and now it's time to sort everything. Where are these players projected to go? Will the Sixers need to trade up or down to get their guy? This is more going to focus on where the player will be taken, and not necessarily much analysis of their skills. To determine these slots, I looked at five two-round mock drafts and categorized guys how I see fit.
Before 16
The Sixers did not work out anyone who will clearly be taken before them. They will probably not trade up.
16
Darrell Arthur PF 6'9 230 Sophomore Kansas
Arthur is pegged as a Sixer in only one of my five mock drafts, but he definitely won't be on the board long after that. He has a nice offensive game for a PF, and he really likes to block shots. As a pretty experienced sophomore on a powerhouse program, he might be able to contribute a bit earlier than some other guys.
Donte' Greene SF 6'9 221 Freshman Syracuse
Greene's stock is a mix of above and below the 16th pick. In my blogland, that clearly translates to a guy that could be there at 16 but definitely not much later. He is a very raw player, but his clear upside is a reason why Stefanski may be interested. Does the reward outweigh the risk?
Rest Of First Round
Alexis Ajinca C 7'0 230 1988 France
In the fickle world of NBA Draft stock, Ajinca is currently a victim. A few days ago, Ajinca could've been a potential lottery pick. Now, a couple hours before the draft, he's slipping closer to the end of the first round. He's more worth the risk in the 20's than he is in the lottery, and playoff teams can more afford to take a chance with their picks than lottery teams.
Ryan Anderson F 6'10 235 Sophomore California
Anderson is a late first rounder in most places, but I've seen him slip to the second a couple times. Either way, if the Sixers are interested, they'll have to trade down. He's definitely not worth the 16th pick. Like Darrell Arthur, he's another sophomore that might be a bit more polished than some of the other underclassmen in the draft.
J.J. Hickson PF 6'9 242 Freshman NC State
Unlike Ajinca, Hickson's draft stock has slowly risen as of late. When he first declared for the draft, he was a mid-rounder in the second. Now, he's pretty secure late in the first. He may be worth a pick before this, and I think his stock might be brought down by the bad Wolfpack team around him.
JaVale McGee C 7'0 241 Sophomore Nevada
At only 241 pounds, he's kind of thin at the moment. He's not as polished as the other two sophomores I've looked at, and this fits the bill for the kind of player Ed Stefanski is looking for tonight. He could go around 19 to Cleveland, so his stock might be a bit better than a Hickson or Anderson.
Marreese Speights FC 6'10 250 Sophomore Florida
This one kind of surprises me. The Sixers really like him, and according to a lot of places on the net, taking him at 16 might be a bit of a reach. There are serious character questions about Speights. He's been reported as kind of lazy, and that won't fly in the NBA. He's going to have to work hard because he's very raw.
Second Round
Lamont Gordon G 6'4 220 Junior Mississippi State
Gordon doesn't sound like a bad player, but I'll be shocked if he goes before pick 30. Even just in the second round, there's about a ten pick range in which he might go, so no one knows what will happen. The second round is often unpredictable because of foreign players and small school guys teams uncover.
Second Round-Undrafted
Pat Calathes SF 6'10 210 Senior St. Joseph's
I have to apologize, because after seeing some mocks, I probably shortchanged Calathes in my previous preview. He could become an NBA player from what I've seen, and I was hard on him. At best, he'll be taken at the end of the second round and have a shot to make an NBA roster. He's a hard worker and deserves the opportunity.
Undrafted
Chris Clark PG 5'8 165 Senior Temple
It doesn't look good for this former Owl.
Frank Elegar PF 6'8 230 Senior Drexel
As I said, I hope he gets taken. However, the odds are against him.
Callistus Eziukwu FC 6'10 220 Senior Grand Valley State
This small school star is facing long odds. He did not appear in a single mock.
Rob Ferguson F 6'8 230 Senior St. Joseph's
Fergy is another City Six player who probably won't get taken.
C.J. Giles FC 6'10 225 Junior Oregon State
Giles is thin and had some baggage. He really had to impress in workouts to get teams on his side, and I guess he didn't do it.
Kentrell Gransberry PF 6'9 270 Senior South Florida
Like Elegar, I'm rooting for this guy. However, he's going to have to sign on somewhere as an undrafted player.
Marvin Kilgore PG 6'3 195 Senior Texas El-Paso
I didn't know much about him when I talked about his workout, and I can't say I know much more now.
Jawann McClellan G 6'4 200 Senior Arizona
McClellan is a big school guy who doesn't seem to be getting big school treatment from NBA teams.
David Padgett C 6'11 250 Senior Louisville
If there's one guy on this undrafted list who might get taken, it could be him. He appeared in an older version of a mock I looked at, but he got bumped out in the latest update.
Nikita Shabalkin SF 6'9 210 1986 Russia
Teams love taking chances on foreign players, but Shabalkin is older than most good ones.
Michael Sturns G 6'4 190 Senior Holy Family
He played locally last year, but he did prove himself a little in major college basketball.
I'm not guaranteeing everyone will go in the slots I put them in, but they should be pretty good estimations. The Sixers might also take someone not appearing on this list, but DiLeo has said they don't like taking players they don't bring in. Some guys have secret workouts, and I guess if that's the case, we'll find out after the draft. A mock draft is upcoming.
Before 16
The Sixers did not work out anyone who will clearly be taken before them. They will probably not trade up.
16
Darrell Arthur PF 6'9 230 Sophomore Kansas
Arthur is pegged as a Sixer in only one of my five mock drafts, but he definitely won't be on the board long after that. He has a nice offensive game for a PF, and he really likes to block shots. As a pretty experienced sophomore on a powerhouse program, he might be able to contribute a bit earlier than some other guys.
Donte' Greene SF 6'9 221 Freshman Syracuse
Greene's stock is a mix of above and below the 16th pick. In my blogland, that clearly translates to a guy that could be there at 16 but definitely not much later. He is a very raw player, but his clear upside is a reason why Stefanski may be interested. Does the reward outweigh the risk?
Rest Of First Round
Alexis Ajinca C 7'0 230 1988 France
In the fickle world of NBA Draft stock, Ajinca is currently a victim. A few days ago, Ajinca could've been a potential lottery pick. Now, a couple hours before the draft, he's slipping closer to the end of the first round. He's more worth the risk in the 20's than he is in the lottery, and playoff teams can more afford to take a chance with their picks than lottery teams.
Ryan Anderson F 6'10 235 Sophomore California
Anderson is a late first rounder in most places, but I've seen him slip to the second a couple times. Either way, if the Sixers are interested, they'll have to trade down. He's definitely not worth the 16th pick. Like Darrell Arthur, he's another sophomore that might be a bit more polished than some of the other underclassmen in the draft.
J.J. Hickson PF 6'9 242 Freshman NC State
Unlike Ajinca, Hickson's draft stock has slowly risen as of late. When he first declared for the draft, he was a mid-rounder in the second. Now, he's pretty secure late in the first. He may be worth a pick before this, and I think his stock might be brought down by the bad Wolfpack team around him.
JaVale McGee C 7'0 241 Sophomore Nevada
At only 241 pounds, he's kind of thin at the moment. He's not as polished as the other two sophomores I've looked at, and this fits the bill for the kind of player Ed Stefanski is looking for tonight. He could go around 19 to Cleveland, so his stock might be a bit better than a Hickson or Anderson.
Marreese Speights FC 6'10 250 Sophomore Florida
This one kind of surprises me. The Sixers really like him, and according to a lot of places on the net, taking him at 16 might be a bit of a reach. There are serious character questions about Speights. He's been reported as kind of lazy, and that won't fly in the NBA. He's going to have to work hard because he's very raw.
Second Round
Lamont Gordon G 6'4 220 Junior Mississippi State
Gordon doesn't sound like a bad player, but I'll be shocked if he goes before pick 30. Even just in the second round, there's about a ten pick range in which he might go, so no one knows what will happen. The second round is often unpredictable because of foreign players and small school guys teams uncover.
Second Round-Undrafted
Pat Calathes SF 6'10 210 Senior St. Joseph's
I have to apologize, because after seeing some mocks, I probably shortchanged Calathes in my previous preview. He could become an NBA player from what I've seen, and I was hard on him. At best, he'll be taken at the end of the second round and have a shot to make an NBA roster. He's a hard worker and deserves the opportunity.
Undrafted
Chris Clark PG 5'8 165 Senior Temple
It doesn't look good for this former Owl.
Frank Elegar PF 6'8 230 Senior Drexel
As I said, I hope he gets taken. However, the odds are against him.
Callistus Eziukwu FC 6'10 220 Senior Grand Valley State
This small school star is facing long odds. He did not appear in a single mock.
Rob Ferguson F 6'8 230 Senior St. Joseph's
Fergy is another City Six player who probably won't get taken.
C.J. Giles FC 6'10 225 Junior Oregon State
Giles is thin and had some baggage. He really had to impress in workouts to get teams on his side, and I guess he didn't do it.
Kentrell Gransberry PF 6'9 270 Senior South Florida
Like Elegar, I'm rooting for this guy. However, he's going to have to sign on somewhere as an undrafted player.
Marvin Kilgore PG 6'3 195 Senior Texas El-Paso
I didn't know much about him when I talked about his workout, and I can't say I know much more now.
Jawann McClellan G 6'4 200 Senior Arizona
McClellan is a big school guy who doesn't seem to be getting big school treatment from NBA teams.
David Padgett C 6'11 250 Senior Louisville
If there's one guy on this undrafted list who might get taken, it could be him. He appeared in an older version of a mock I looked at, but he got bumped out in the latest update.
Nikita Shabalkin SF 6'9 210 1986 Russia
Teams love taking chances on foreign players, but Shabalkin is older than most good ones.
Michael Sturns G 6'4 190 Senior Holy Family
He played locally last year, but he did prove himself a little in major college basketball.
I'm not guaranteeing everyone will go in the slots I put them in, but they should be pretty good estimations. The Sixers might also take someone not appearing on this list, but DiLeo has said they don't like taking players they don't bring in. Some guys have secret workouts, and I guess if that's the case, we'll find out after the draft. A mock draft is upcoming.
Game 80: Phillies at A's (3/3)
I forgot to do the lineups' stats against each pitcher. I think just about all of them would've been N/A's, but it's still my mistake.
Philadelphia Phillies: 43-36
Oakalnd A's: 42-35
Adam Eaton (2-5 4.94 ERA, 1-1 4.91 ERA)
Rich Harden (4-0 2.44 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Werth LF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Rollins SS N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell DH N/A
Jenkins RF N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Dobbs 3B 0/4
Coste C N/A
Ellis 2B 1/5, .200/.200/.400
Sweeney RF N/A
Cust DH N/A
Chavez 3B 3/9, .333/.455/.556
Crosby SS N/A
Brown LF N/A
Gonzalez CF N/A
Barton 1B N/A
Bowen C N/A
I think they'll use another version of the bizarre lineup this afternoon after scoring four runs last night. I'll make a minor modification by splitting up Howard and Jenkins by putting Ryan back in the cleanup spot. Things shouldn't stay like this, and I'd imagine we'll be back to normal when we hit Texas.
It was great to pick up a game despite the huge slump last night. Florida's not doing themselves any favors either, and if the Phillies snap out of things faster than they do, they could put some distance between them and the NL East again. The Mets are slowly sneaking up, and I don't think you can rule out anyone at this point. Things will be tough with Harden on the mound today.
Philadelphia Phillies: 43-36
Oakalnd A's: 42-35
Adam Eaton (2-5 4.94 ERA, 1-1 4.91 ERA)
Rich Harden (4-0 2.44 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Werth LF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Rollins SS N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell DH N/A
Jenkins RF N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Dobbs 3B 0/4
Coste C N/A
Ellis 2B 1/5, .200/.200/.400
Sweeney RF N/A
Cust DH N/A
Chavez 3B 3/9, .333/.455/.556
Crosby SS N/A
Brown LF N/A
Gonzalez CF N/A
Barton 1B N/A
Bowen C N/A
I think they'll use another version of the bizarre lineup this afternoon after scoring four runs last night. I'll make a minor modification by splitting up Howard and Jenkins by putting Ryan back in the cleanup spot. Things shouldn't stay like this, and I'd imagine we'll be back to normal when we hit Texas.
It was great to pick up a game despite the huge slump last night. Florida's not doing themselves any favors either, and if the Phillies snap out of things faster than they do, they could put some distance between them and the NL East again. The Mets are slowly sneaking up, and I don't think you can rule out anyone at this point. Things will be tough with Harden on the mound today.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Game 79: Phillies at A's (2/3)
Philadelphia Phillies: 42-36
Oakland A's: 42-34
Kyle Kendrick (6-3 5.06 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Greg Smith (4-5 3.51 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Rollins SS
Victorino CF
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Burrell DH
Werth RF
Feliz 3B
Coste C
Taguchi LF
Ellis 2B
Sweeney RF
Cust DH
Chavez 3B
Crosby SS
Brown LF
Hannahan 1B
Suzuki C
Gonzalez CF
The Phillies have just pissed away chances with the bases loaded this year. They're tied for first in AB with the bases loaded, but they're only 20th in runs scored in these situations. They're 23rd in BA, 20th in OBP, 23rd in SLG and 21st in OPS. This is why they have trouble scoring runs sometimes, and this is what separates the Cubs from the Phillies in NL R rankings.
I'm going to chalk up Cust's HR off of Romero as a fluke. I'm not a big J.C. fan, and even though he struggles in a huge way against righties, that was really the first time he's been touched by a left handed batter. I doubt something like that will happen again for a while.
Oakland A's: 42-34
Kyle Kendrick (6-3 5.06 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Greg Smith (4-5 3.51 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Rollins SS
Victorino CF
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Burrell DH
Werth RF
Feliz 3B
Coste C
Taguchi LF
Ellis 2B
Sweeney RF
Cust DH
Chavez 3B
Crosby SS
Brown LF
Hannahan 1B
Suzuki C
Gonzalez CF
The Phillies have just pissed away chances with the bases loaded this year. They're tied for first in AB with the bases loaded, but they're only 20th in runs scored in these situations. They're 23rd in BA, 20th in OBP, 23rd in SLG and 21st in OPS. This is why they have trouble scoring runs sometimes, and this is what separates the Cubs from the Phillies in NL R rankings.
I'm going to chalk up Cust's HR off of Romero as a fluke. I'm not a big J.C. fan, and even though he struggles in a huge way against righties, that was really the first time he's been touched by a left handed batter. I doubt something like that will happen again for a while.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Sixers Draft Workouts: June 24th
The Sixers had a bunch of days off before today's workout. With only two days before the draft, they may be done with pre-draft prep and will begin to solidify their big board before the main event on Thursday. They've only worked out about half of the players they did last year, which turned out to be around 42. It's probably because they only have one pick compared to four like last year, but it's like they won't even be prepared to trade up or down if a team comes calling.
Alexis Ajinca C 7'0 230 1988 France
I'm going to get this out right now: I don't get it. I don't get how a player who averaged 5 points a game in his league in France is considered a potential lottery pick. I've read the scouting reports. I see that he's tall and athletic. Tall and athletic is nice in basketball. However, how tall and athletic do you need to be to make up for 5 points and 2 rebounds a game? Maybe he'll develop and prove me wrong, but I just don't get how a team can take Anjinca in the first round.
Darrell Arthur PF 6'9 230 Sophomore Kansas
Arthur has been pretty impressive in his workouts as of late, and his draft stock is reflecting it. He was initially a player the Sixers would be able to comfortably stay at 16 and land him, and now they may have to trade up. Although he may be a bit short for his position, he's very gifted offensively and can crash the boards very well. At times, he may be too aggressive though. He commits way too many fouls, and smart players could take advantage of his tendency to attempt to block a lot of shots. His height is definitely a concern, but he has the skills and athleticism teams covet.
Frank Elegar PF 6'8 230 Senior Drexel
One last guy to get a courtesy workout in with his hometown team. I really like Elegar. I'll admit I'm a bit bias towards Drexel over other City Six teams, and I hope he gets drafted. He's athletic, a good rebounder and shot blocker. He carried a Dragons team that was absolutely awful in 08, and he was probably the best player in 07 even with Mason, Mejias and Crawford still around. A team could take a flier on him late in the draft and be pleasantly surprised come camp time. He has worked out for several other teams, so the opportunity is there.
Rob Ferguson was also in for a second workout today.
Alexis Ajinca C 7'0 230 1988 France
I'm going to get this out right now: I don't get it. I don't get how a player who averaged 5 points a game in his league in France is considered a potential lottery pick. I've read the scouting reports. I see that he's tall and athletic. Tall and athletic is nice in basketball. However, how tall and athletic do you need to be to make up for 5 points and 2 rebounds a game? Maybe he'll develop and prove me wrong, but I just don't get how a team can take Anjinca in the first round.
Darrell Arthur PF 6'9 230 Sophomore Kansas
Arthur has been pretty impressive in his workouts as of late, and his draft stock is reflecting it. He was initially a player the Sixers would be able to comfortably stay at 16 and land him, and now they may have to trade up. Although he may be a bit short for his position, he's very gifted offensively and can crash the boards very well. At times, he may be too aggressive though. He commits way too many fouls, and smart players could take advantage of his tendency to attempt to block a lot of shots. His height is definitely a concern, but he has the skills and athleticism teams covet.
Frank Elegar PF 6'8 230 Senior Drexel
One last guy to get a courtesy workout in with his hometown team. I really like Elegar. I'll admit I'm a bit bias towards Drexel over other City Six teams, and I hope he gets drafted. He's athletic, a good rebounder and shot blocker. He carried a Dragons team that was absolutely awful in 08, and he was probably the best player in 07 even with Mason, Mejias and Crawford still around. A team could take a flier on him late in the draft and be pleasantly surprised come camp time. He has worked out for several other teams, so the opportunity is there.
Rob Ferguson was also in for a second workout today.
Phantoms Add Marginal Defenseman, Flyers Blue Line Discussion
The Flyers acquired D Janne Niskala from Nashville for Triston Grant and a 7th round pick.
Niskala was drafted in the 5th round by Nashville in 2004. He signed an entry contract before last season and played for their AHL affiliate last season. He scored 19 goals and had a total of 44 points, which were among the AHL leaders.
He's a fringe NHL player, and with Nashville's depth on the blue line, it was unlikely he would get an opportunity there. He has to improve his game in his own end, but you can't score as many goals as he has without having some ability.
One problem. According to his tsn.ca profile, he has already signed a contract in Russia. We'll have to wait to see what it takes to get him to void that deal.
After the trade of Eminger, the Flyers emerged with a clusterfuck of defensemen. Here's how things shake out right now:
Timonen
Coburn
Hatcher
Kukkonen
Parent
Eminger
Syvret
Guenin
Jason Smith and Jaroslav Modry are UFA's, and Randy Jones is a RFA. I doubt Smith or Modry come back, and whether or not they re-sign Jones, which I think they will, they have a lot of players with seven spots to fill.
We all know the Flyers need to improve their defense, but quantity doesn't necessarily equal quality. We can all agree that Timonen and Coburn are great players and a clear number one pair. After that, it's anyone's guess. The Flyers don't even know whether or not Hatcher plans on lacing the skates next year, and if he retires, it leaves another gaping hole on the #2 pair to fill. His departure could definitely free up cap space, but they would need to find a quality player to fill his shoes.
Right now, I'm not sure who could be a #4 defenseman with Hatch. Randy Jones played well in the playoffs, and other than him, I don't think anyone else in the organization right now is good enough. They have so many players that are adequate third pair and seventh defensemen, but the Flyers still need to add one more quality player.
Niskala was drafted in the 5th round by Nashville in 2004. He signed an entry contract before last season and played for their AHL affiliate last season. He scored 19 goals and had a total of 44 points, which were among the AHL leaders.
He's a fringe NHL player, and with Nashville's depth on the blue line, it was unlikely he would get an opportunity there. He has to improve his game in his own end, but you can't score as many goals as he has without having some ability.
One problem. According to his tsn.ca profile, he has already signed a contract in Russia. We'll have to wait to see what it takes to get him to void that deal.
After the trade of Eminger, the Flyers emerged with a clusterfuck of defensemen. Here's how things shake out right now:
Timonen
Coburn
Hatcher
Kukkonen
Parent
Eminger
Syvret
Guenin
Jason Smith and Jaroslav Modry are UFA's, and Randy Jones is a RFA. I doubt Smith or Modry come back, and whether or not they re-sign Jones, which I think they will, they have a lot of players with seven spots to fill.
We all know the Flyers need to improve their defense, but quantity doesn't necessarily equal quality. We can all agree that Timonen and Coburn are great players and a clear number one pair. After that, it's anyone's guess. The Flyers don't even know whether or not Hatcher plans on lacing the skates next year, and if he retires, it leaves another gaping hole on the #2 pair to fill. His departure could definitely free up cap space, but they would need to find a quality player to fill his shoes.
Right now, I'm not sure who could be a #4 defenseman with Hatch. Randy Jones played well in the playoffs, and other than him, I don't think anyone else in the organization right now is good enough. They have so many players that are adequate third pair and seventh defensemen, but the Flyers still need to add one more quality player.
Game 78: Phillies at A's (1/3)
Philadelphia Phillies: 42-35
Oakland A's: 41-34
Jamie Moyer (7-4 4.09 ERA, 17-15 4.46 ERA)
Joe Blanton (3-10 4.81 ERA, 1-0 2.35 ERA)
Projected lineups
Ellis 2B 3/15, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .200/.294/.533
Sweeney RF N/A
Cust DH N/A
Chavez 3B 21/65, 6 HR, 16 RBI, .323/.397/.646
Crosby SS 5/19, 1 RBI, .263/.440/.474
Brown LF 2/11, .182/.250/.182
Suzuki C N/A
Barton 1B N/A
Gonzalez CF N/A
Rollins SS 0/4
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B 0/3
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell DH 0/4
Jenkins RF N/A
Dobbs LF 1/7, 1 RBI, .143/.143/.143
Feliz 3B 3/9, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .333/.445/.667
Coste C N/A
The Phillies should be happy to roll into Oakland against a team that doesn't score many runs, but Anaheim didn't have the most potent offense either. Jamie Moyer has to play the role of stopper tonight, and he needs to use his veteran savvy or some other buzzword to do it. However, this is a lineup that will remain patient and take their share of walks. Eric Chavez is also probably very happy to see Moyer return to Oakland.
Joe Blanton is the kind of guy you want to see to break out of your offensive slump. He's having a bad year, and he gives up a lot of hits. McAfee is an extreme pitchers' park, so the Phillies need to put the ball in play and string together some hits to produce runs. Let's get a game to Brad Lidge with us leading the game for the first time in a while.
Oakland A's: 41-34
Jamie Moyer (7-4 4.09 ERA, 17-15 4.46 ERA)
Joe Blanton (3-10 4.81 ERA, 1-0 2.35 ERA)
Projected lineups
Ellis 2B 3/15, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .200/.294/.533
Sweeney RF N/A
Cust DH N/A
Chavez 3B 21/65, 6 HR, 16 RBI, .323/.397/.646
Crosby SS 5/19, 1 RBI, .263/.440/.474
Brown LF 2/11, .182/.250/.182
Suzuki C N/A
Barton 1B N/A
Gonzalez CF N/A
Rollins SS 0/4
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B 0/3
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell DH 0/4
Jenkins RF N/A
Dobbs LF 1/7, 1 RBI, .143/.143/.143
Feliz 3B 3/9, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .333/.445/.667
Coste C N/A
The Phillies should be happy to roll into Oakland against a team that doesn't score many runs, but Anaheim didn't have the most potent offense either. Jamie Moyer has to play the role of stopper tonight, and he needs to use his veteran savvy or some other buzzword to do it. However, this is a lineup that will remain patient and take their share of walks. Eric Chavez is also probably very happy to see Moyer return to Oakland.
Joe Blanton is the kind of guy you want to see to break out of your offensive slump. He's having a bad year, and he gives up a lot of hits. McAfee is an extreme pitchers' park, so the Phillies need to put the ball in play and string together some hits to produce runs. Let's get a game to Brad Lidge with us leading the game for the first time in a while.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
The NHL Draft And Goalies
With the exception of a handful of lucky franchises, just about every team in the NHL is looking for the same thing: a franchise goaltender. Teams are always in search of this player. Everyone would love to have the next Martin Brodeur or Patrick Roy, two of the greatest to play the game. Guys get billed as the next this or that all the time, but in a lot of cases, this is a mere mirage. Unfortunately for the teams that end up with these guys, they wasted three to four years building around the wrong player. Then, it's time to move into the next one, and that player may fail as well. It's a vicious cycle for a lot of teams.
In this weekend's 2008 NHL draft, two goalies were taken in the first round. Chet Pickard went 18th overall to Nashville, and Thomas McCollum went 30th overall to Detroit. According to the NHL's scouting service, these were the two best North American goalies available, and these teams have high hopes for both of them. Dan Ellis is a very good player and they have a couple other decent prospects, but the Predators hope they can get the fabled franchise goalie. They hope Pickard can blow Ellis out of the water and be the cornerstone of multiple Stanley Cup winners. They want to go into games knowing they don't need to bring their A offensive game every day because their goalie can carry them. That's what every team thinks when they select a goalie.
Detroit is taking an approach that kind of reminds me of an adage about baseball prospects. The rule with three good prospects is that one will reach his potential, one will become a decent player, and one will never make it. This isn't necessarily true in every case, and maybe it doesn't apply at all to hockey. However, Detroit now has three goaltending prospects that were taken within the first 92 picks. Jimmy Howard was taken 64th overall in 2003, and he's now the best prospect in Detroit's system, according to Hockey's Future. He's gotten a little taste of NHL action, and he will soon be joined by Daniel Larsson. Larsson was the 92nd pick in 2006, and he signed an entry level contract to come over to the states. He's their 11th best prospect, and now he'll adjust to the North American game in the AHL. I don't know when Chris Osgood is going to retire, but the Red Wings will probably be in good hands when he leaves.
Fans are familiar with this too. Names like Boucher, Oullet and Pelletier are enough to make any Flyers fan groan. They've seen it all too often. These players get billed as the goalie that will finally bring the cup back to the city, and they never meet expectations. Despite this, fans are clamoring for the organization to find that next great goalie year after year. Maybe the Flyers haven't had that player since Hextall, and it's been a long time since he played.
When a call for a team to draft a goalie with a high pick is made, it's always inevitably met with the same response: "It's too much of a crapshoot to spend a high pick on a goalie." This happens without fail. Is it true? In the eyes of fans who have seen the names Waite, Finley and Krahn come and go, teams should never spend a first round pick on a goalie because you never know what you're going to get. Coming in with an open mind, I set out to prove this.
I used data from the years 1983 to 2006 for this study. In other words, every goalie between Hasek and Bernier. These two are the oldest and youngest goalies to be active since the lockout, and even though it was a lot on my plate, it was the right way to approach things. In a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, I listed all of their games played, wins, GAA, SV% and Stanley Cups won. I also came up with a couple formulas using these numbers. One judges success over along period of time, and one is a more normalized formula that can compare goalies who have played two games to 500.
First, we'll throw out the formulas and the stats and look at one simple thing: Who made the NHL? Who was good enough to put the pads on for even one appearance? The first round led the way with 42 out of 53 total picks making it, or 79.2%. Here's how the rest of the rounds shaped out. For comparison purposes, I made all of the drafts the "same". By this, I mean the first round is picks 1-30, the second round is 31-60, and so on. Expansion obviously shifted some picks from one round to another, such as the 29th overall pick being at the end of the first round instead of the beginning of the second like twenty years ago.
Second: 55.2%
Third: 48.5%
Fourth: 36.7%
Fifth: 23.7%
Sixth: 30.1%
Seventh: 30.3%
Undrafted: 25%
One observation: How sad is the 5th round? That's the lowest percentage out of anyone, with three rounds of players left behind them. I wonder why that is. Why is the first round leaps and bounds better than everyone else? There's probably a couple reasons. One, those players probably are better than other goalies. For a lot of them, their talent carries them from juniors or foreign leagues to the NHL. It's pretty obvious that a talented player is more likely to make it than a player with less talent. Second, teams will feel obligated to even give busts a chance. Even if it becomes clear that a particular goalie isn't the franchise player they hoped, their team might bring them up anyway to try and get something out of their investment. They spent a good draft pick on the player, and the fans were expecting him to be good, so they'll try to show him off before he fades into the sunset.
I think later round picks have been making it more and more often over the years. One reason for this might be the NHL having better relations with leagues around the world. Agreements with the IIHF have been put in place to get NHL draft picks over and out of their contracts overseas. In early years of this study, players such as Vladislav Tretiak were unwilling or unable to join an NHL club even if they were drafted. These days, it's easier for foreign players to come to the states to play.
Before moving on, kudos to Jordan Sigalet and Rob McVicar. They both made one appearance in the NHL, and neither of them had to make a save. Their Moonlight Graham stories must be tough on them, and I'm sure they would've liked one puck coming at them, one win, or even the red light going on behind them. Just once.
Is that really the best measure though? Teams want to win a championship. They're not satisfied with a player taking the ice once. Sorry Rob McVicar, but teams want to draft players that stick around longer than you. Let's look at the number of Cups won by goalies drafted in this period. There were 17 total, not counting Ed Belfour's win as an undrafted player. The first round checks in first again with 8 of the 17 Cups.
Second: 7
Third: 0
Fourth: 0
Fifth: 0
Sixth: 0
Seventh: 2
Undrafted: 0 (not counting Belfour, again).
Wow. This is definitely skewed towards the first 60 picks of the draft in a major way. It's pretty unbelievable that goalies taken between the 61st and 180th pick did not reach hockey's peak in a 23 year period. These results are skewed in another way, and I'm talking about players such as Martin Brodeur and Patrick Roy. They each won multiple Cups, and they run up the tally for the first and second rounds respectively. Who are the two renegades? Dominik Hasek and Nikolai Khabibulin. Hear that, NHL? If you're taking a goalie late, look for an eastern European.
Now is that the best measure? I'm going to take a look at one last thing for now, and that's goalies "good enough" to win the Stanley Cup. I'm talking about the Dan Marinos of the NHL, and according to my spreadsheet, more specifically, Marty Turco and Olaf Kolzig. These are the goalies that haven't necessarily hoisted the greatest trophy in sports, but goalies that probably should have or soon will. I used the two formulas I mentioned previously to figure this out. To qualify as good enough, goalies had to have a career success number greater than Cam Ward and a greater normalized number than Bill Ranford. Why Ward and Ranford? They each had the lowest number in those categories among all goalies that have won the Cup.
Before I post the numbers, I'm going to admit this isn't a perfect measuring stick. It's a statistical formula that quite frankly is pretty arbitrary. Goalies that played with strong defensive systems in front of them, such as Chris Osgood and Robert Esche a few years ago, benefit. Goalies on great teams benefit. Goalies that played recently benefit because the style of the game is different. There are some goalies that qualified for this that many believe aren't good players. This isn't about that though. It's about finding some way to quantify who should be able to win. The first number is the percentage of total goalies drafted that are good enough, and the second number is the percentage of goalies that made the NHL that are good enough.
First: 37.7%, 47.6%
Second: 17.9%, 32.4%
Third: 12.1%, 25%
Fourth: 10.1%, 27.6%
Fifth: 7.9%, 33.3%
Sixth: 5.5%, 18.2%
Seventh: 6.6%, 21.7%
Undrafted: 5.8%, 23.3%
As you can see, the first round again sets the pace. This should be obvious though. Once again, these are the more talented players, and more talented goalies tend to do better. However, when looking at these measures, you have to consider something. Even people who think goalies are too risky to draft high will acknowledge that they're probably more successful earlier in the draft. Teams have to weigh this risk. Of course first round picks are supposed to be better, but would it make more sense to take a skater in the first and take a chance on a player in maybe the second round? By the way, big front office guys. If you take a goalie in the 5th and get him to the NHL, expect good things.
That's a preliminary look at what I've found. I'm going on a bit of a trip this weekend, so no more updates until maybe Monday night. No Phillies preview tomorrow, but they're off Monday, so I'll only miss one game. I might make two more posts about this, since I want to reach a definite conclusion, and I'll post some more in-depth stats for each draft over the years for you to take a look.
In this weekend's 2008 NHL draft, two goalies were taken in the first round. Chet Pickard went 18th overall to Nashville, and Thomas McCollum went 30th overall to Detroit. According to the NHL's scouting service, these were the two best North American goalies available, and these teams have high hopes for both of them. Dan Ellis is a very good player and they have a couple other decent prospects, but the Predators hope they can get the fabled franchise goalie. They hope Pickard can blow Ellis out of the water and be the cornerstone of multiple Stanley Cup winners. They want to go into games knowing they don't need to bring their A offensive game every day because their goalie can carry them. That's what every team thinks when they select a goalie.
Detroit is taking an approach that kind of reminds me of an adage about baseball prospects. The rule with three good prospects is that one will reach his potential, one will become a decent player, and one will never make it. This isn't necessarily true in every case, and maybe it doesn't apply at all to hockey. However, Detroit now has three goaltending prospects that were taken within the first 92 picks. Jimmy Howard was taken 64th overall in 2003, and he's now the best prospect in Detroit's system, according to Hockey's Future. He's gotten a little taste of NHL action, and he will soon be joined by Daniel Larsson. Larsson was the 92nd pick in 2006, and he signed an entry level contract to come over to the states. He's their 11th best prospect, and now he'll adjust to the North American game in the AHL. I don't know when Chris Osgood is going to retire, but the Red Wings will probably be in good hands when he leaves.
Fans are familiar with this too. Names like Boucher, Oullet and Pelletier are enough to make any Flyers fan groan. They've seen it all too often. These players get billed as the goalie that will finally bring the cup back to the city, and they never meet expectations. Despite this, fans are clamoring for the organization to find that next great goalie year after year. Maybe the Flyers haven't had that player since Hextall, and it's been a long time since he played.
When a call for a team to draft a goalie with a high pick is made, it's always inevitably met with the same response: "It's too much of a crapshoot to spend a high pick on a goalie." This happens without fail. Is it true? In the eyes of fans who have seen the names Waite, Finley and Krahn come and go, teams should never spend a first round pick on a goalie because you never know what you're going to get. Coming in with an open mind, I set out to prove this.
I used data from the years 1983 to 2006 for this study. In other words, every goalie between Hasek and Bernier. These two are the oldest and youngest goalies to be active since the lockout, and even though it was a lot on my plate, it was the right way to approach things. In a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, I listed all of their games played, wins, GAA, SV% and Stanley Cups won. I also came up with a couple formulas using these numbers. One judges success over along period of time, and one is a more normalized formula that can compare goalies who have played two games to 500.
First, we'll throw out the formulas and the stats and look at one simple thing: Who made the NHL? Who was good enough to put the pads on for even one appearance? The first round led the way with 42 out of 53 total picks making it, or 79.2%. Here's how the rest of the rounds shaped out. For comparison purposes, I made all of the drafts the "same". By this, I mean the first round is picks 1-30, the second round is 31-60, and so on. Expansion obviously shifted some picks from one round to another, such as the 29th overall pick being at the end of the first round instead of the beginning of the second like twenty years ago.
Second: 55.2%
Third: 48.5%
Fourth: 36.7%
Fifth: 23.7%
Sixth: 30.1%
Seventh: 30.3%
Undrafted: 25%
One observation: How sad is the 5th round? That's the lowest percentage out of anyone, with three rounds of players left behind them. I wonder why that is. Why is the first round leaps and bounds better than everyone else? There's probably a couple reasons. One, those players probably are better than other goalies. For a lot of them, their talent carries them from juniors or foreign leagues to the NHL. It's pretty obvious that a talented player is more likely to make it than a player with less talent. Second, teams will feel obligated to even give busts a chance. Even if it becomes clear that a particular goalie isn't the franchise player they hoped, their team might bring them up anyway to try and get something out of their investment. They spent a good draft pick on the player, and the fans were expecting him to be good, so they'll try to show him off before he fades into the sunset.
I think later round picks have been making it more and more often over the years. One reason for this might be the NHL having better relations with leagues around the world. Agreements with the IIHF have been put in place to get NHL draft picks over and out of their contracts overseas. In early years of this study, players such as Vladislav Tretiak were unwilling or unable to join an NHL club even if they were drafted. These days, it's easier for foreign players to come to the states to play.
Before moving on, kudos to Jordan Sigalet and Rob McVicar. They both made one appearance in the NHL, and neither of them had to make a save. Their Moonlight Graham stories must be tough on them, and I'm sure they would've liked one puck coming at them, one win, or even the red light going on behind them. Just once.
Is that really the best measure though? Teams want to win a championship. They're not satisfied with a player taking the ice once. Sorry Rob McVicar, but teams want to draft players that stick around longer than you. Let's look at the number of Cups won by goalies drafted in this period. There were 17 total, not counting Ed Belfour's win as an undrafted player. The first round checks in first again with 8 of the 17 Cups.
Second: 7
Third: 0
Fourth: 0
Fifth: 0
Sixth: 0
Seventh: 2
Undrafted: 0 (not counting Belfour, again).
Wow. This is definitely skewed towards the first 60 picks of the draft in a major way. It's pretty unbelievable that goalies taken between the 61st and 180th pick did not reach hockey's peak in a 23 year period. These results are skewed in another way, and I'm talking about players such as Martin Brodeur and Patrick Roy. They each won multiple Cups, and they run up the tally for the first and second rounds respectively. Who are the two renegades? Dominik Hasek and Nikolai Khabibulin. Hear that, NHL? If you're taking a goalie late, look for an eastern European.
Now is that the best measure? I'm going to take a look at one last thing for now, and that's goalies "good enough" to win the Stanley Cup. I'm talking about the Dan Marinos of the NHL, and according to my spreadsheet, more specifically, Marty Turco and Olaf Kolzig. These are the goalies that haven't necessarily hoisted the greatest trophy in sports, but goalies that probably should have or soon will. I used the two formulas I mentioned previously to figure this out. To qualify as good enough, goalies had to have a career success number greater than Cam Ward and a greater normalized number than Bill Ranford. Why Ward and Ranford? They each had the lowest number in those categories among all goalies that have won the Cup.
Before I post the numbers, I'm going to admit this isn't a perfect measuring stick. It's a statistical formula that quite frankly is pretty arbitrary. Goalies that played with strong defensive systems in front of them, such as Chris Osgood and Robert Esche a few years ago, benefit. Goalies on great teams benefit. Goalies that played recently benefit because the style of the game is different. There are some goalies that qualified for this that many believe aren't good players. This isn't about that though. It's about finding some way to quantify who should be able to win. The first number is the percentage of total goalies drafted that are good enough, and the second number is the percentage of goalies that made the NHL that are good enough.
First: 37.7%, 47.6%
Second: 17.9%, 32.4%
Third: 12.1%, 25%
Fourth: 10.1%, 27.6%
Fifth: 7.9%, 33.3%
Sixth: 5.5%, 18.2%
Seventh: 6.6%, 21.7%
Undrafted: 5.8%, 23.3%
As you can see, the first round again sets the pace. This should be obvious though. Once again, these are the more talented players, and more talented goalies tend to do better. However, when looking at these measures, you have to consider something. Even people who think goalies are too risky to draft high will acknowledge that they're probably more successful earlier in the draft. Teams have to weigh this risk. Of course first round picks are supposed to be better, but would it make more sense to take a skater in the first and take a chance on a player in maybe the second round? By the way, big front office guys. If you take a goalie in the 5th and get him to the NHL, expect good things.
That's a preliminary look at what I've found. I'm going on a bit of a trip this weekend, so no more updates until maybe Monday night. No Phillies preview tomorrow, but they're off Monday, so I'll only miss one game. I might make two more posts about this, since I want to reach a definite conclusion, and I'll post some more in-depth stats for each draft over the years for you to take a look.
Game 76: Angels at Phillies (2/3)
Anaheim Angels: 44-30
Philadelphia Phillies: 42-33
Joe Saunders (10-3 3.06 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Brett Myers (3-8 5.58 ERA, 0-1 7.94 ERA)
Projected lineups
Figgins 3B N/A N/A
Izturis SS 2/2, 1.000/1.000/1.500
Anderson LF 1/2, .500/.667/.500
Guerrero RF 3/6, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .500/.500/1.000
Hunter CF 1/3, 1 RBI, .333/.333/.333
Kotchman 1B N/A
Kendrick 2B N/A
Mathis C N/A
Saunders P
Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Jenkins RF N/A
Feliz 3B N/A
Coste C N/A
Myers P
It's time to snap the losing streak. The Phillies need to show they can compete a little with the top teams of the AL, because they hope to run into Boston or Anaheim later this year. They have to prove they can hit good pitchers, and tonight is a tough challenge with lefty Joe Saunders on the hill. He's having a career year, but the Phils are due for a breakout offensive performance.
I wonder how close the Phillies are to making a move with Myers. Among the fans, you get the feeling that now is the time to move on. I disagree. He has talent, and he's shown it in the past. You can't trade him for nothing because he's at his lowest value right now. That's bad baseball. The Phillies need to ride it out for a while and hope he gets better.
Philadelphia Phillies: 42-33
Joe Saunders (10-3 3.06 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Brett Myers (3-8 5.58 ERA, 0-1 7.94 ERA)
Projected lineups
Figgins 3B N/A N/A
Izturis SS 2/2, 1.000/1.000/1.500
Anderson LF 1/2, .500/.667/.500
Guerrero RF 3/6, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .500/.500/1.000
Hunter CF 1/3, 1 RBI, .333/.333/.333
Kotchman 1B N/A
Kendrick 2B N/A
Mathis C N/A
Saunders P
Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Jenkins RF N/A
Feliz 3B N/A
Coste C N/A
Myers P
It's time to snap the losing streak. The Phillies need to show they can compete a little with the top teams of the AL, because they hope to run into Boston or Anaheim later this year. They have to prove they can hit good pitchers, and tonight is a tough challenge with lefty Joe Saunders on the hill. He's having a career year, but the Phils are due for a breakout offensive performance.
I wonder how close the Phillies are to making a move with Myers. Among the fans, you get the feeling that now is the time to move on. I disagree. He has talent, and he's shown it in the past. You can't trade him for nothing because he's at his lowest value right now. That's bad baseball. The Phillies need to ride it out for a while and hope he gets better.
Friday, June 20, 2008
Flyers Draft Talk And Fun With Pierre McGuire
The Flyers have been wheeling and dealing during tonight's first round, so let's take a look at what they've done.
They kicked off the night by sending RFA C R.J. Umberger to Columbus along with a 4th round pick for their first rounder, 19th overall, and a third rounder. Holmgren must not have felt they were making progress in contract talks, or he really just wasn't interested from the beginning. The fact is, the Flyers have too many forwards and really can't invest any more money in them. It's great that they were able to get a couple picks out of him, but I wish they could've used him to upgrade the blue line and maybe not do what they did later.
With that 19th pick, the Flyers took Luca Sbisa, a defenseman from the WHL. He was one of the points leaders in the WHL postseason, and he's described as a very mobile player. He's good at starting the rush and is compared to fellow Swiss D-Man Mark Streit. Streit's not exactly a glowing comparison, but he can definitely score some points. He's also compared to Kaberle, a player the Flyers were very interested in. He'll probably player in the junior league for another year or two, and then we'll see how he handles the pro game.
Instead of using their own 27th overall pick, the Flyers traded it to Washington for D Steve Eminger and a 3rd round pick. I'm not sure I'm a fan of this. Eminger was a former 12th overall pick, but he has not come close to living up to his expectations since joining the professional ranks. He has not shown the offensive ability that made Washington take him so high. He has also not proven himself in his own zone, so unless the Flyers' coaching staff sees something they can correct, I'm not sure how much he'll help.
The Flyers picked up a 3rd round pick and essentially traded up from the 4th to the 3rd for tomorrow. It wouldn't surprise me if they took a goalie with one of these picks, but I'd never expect that player to become good. We'll see. I doubt Holmgren is done upgrading the blue line.
Also, Pierre McGuire. What's with this dude? Let's take a look at some of his reviews of picks tonight.
On first overall pick Steven Stamkos: "It's about his level of excellence."
On third overall pick Zach Bogosian: "This is a gigantically positive move for Atlanta. This guy's got it all going on, and I can't say enough good things about him."
On fifth overall pick Luke Schenn: "Toronto wins huge here. This is the start of the re-build and there's no better place to start than on the shoulders of Luke Schenn. He is the Human Eraser on defence. A one man search and destroy defender. This is a franchise player."
On fourteenth overall pick Zach Boychuk: "Perfect! Tremendous move."
On fifteenth overall pick Erik Karlsson: "He's the Swedish Brian Rafalski."
On twenty-second overall pick Jordan Eberle: "Perfecto for the Oilers."
Did anyone make a bad pick? This is like that episode of the Simpsons where Homer is a food critic, and his worst review is six thumbs up.
They kicked off the night by sending RFA C R.J. Umberger to Columbus along with a 4th round pick for their first rounder, 19th overall, and a third rounder. Holmgren must not have felt they were making progress in contract talks, or he really just wasn't interested from the beginning. The fact is, the Flyers have too many forwards and really can't invest any more money in them. It's great that they were able to get a couple picks out of him, but I wish they could've used him to upgrade the blue line and maybe not do what they did later.
With that 19th pick, the Flyers took Luca Sbisa, a defenseman from the WHL. He was one of the points leaders in the WHL postseason, and he's described as a very mobile player. He's good at starting the rush and is compared to fellow Swiss D-Man Mark Streit. Streit's not exactly a glowing comparison, but he can definitely score some points. He's also compared to Kaberle, a player the Flyers were very interested in. He'll probably player in the junior league for another year or two, and then we'll see how he handles the pro game.
Instead of using their own 27th overall pick, the Flyers traded it to Washington for D Steve Eminger and a 3rd round pick. I'm not sure I'm a fan of this. Eminger was a former 12th overall pick, but he has not come close to living up to his expectations since joining the professional ranks. He has not shown the offensive ability that made Washington take him so high. He has also not proven himself in his own zone, so unless the Flyers' coaching staff sees something they can correct, I'm not sure how much he'll help.
The Flyers picked up a 3rd round pick and essentially traded up from the 4th to the 3rd for tomorrow. It wouldn't surprise me if they took a goalie with one of these picks, but I'd never expect that player to become good. We'll see. I doubt Holmgren is done upgrading the blue line.
Also, Pierre McGuire. What's with this dude? Let's take a look at some of his reviews of picks tonight.
On first overall pick Steven Stamkos: "It's about his level of excellence."
On third overall pick Zach Bogosian: "This is a gigantically positive move for Atlanta. This guy's got it all going on, and I can't say enough good things about him."
On fifth overall pick Luke Schenn: "Toronto wins huge here. This is the start of the re-build and there's no better place to start than on the shoulders of Luke Schenn. He is the Human Eraser on defence. A one man search and destroy defender. This is a franchise player."
On fourteenth overall pick Zach Boychuk: "Perfect! Tremendous move."
On fifteenth overall pick Erik Karlsson: "He's the Swedish Brian Rafalski."
On twenty-second overall pick Jordan Eberle: "Perfecto for the Oilers."
Did anyone make a bad pick? This is like that episode of the Simpsons where Homer is a food critic, and his worst review is six thumbs up.
Sixers Draft Workouts: June 19th
We're falling behind again, but the Sixers brought in at least one legit guy. Let's take a look.
Ryan Anderson F 5'10 235 Sophomore California
He's got a nice shot and some range, and his combination of size and shooting could be a nice match for the Sixers. Anderson is a high energy player who can pull down a bunch of rebounds. His toughness and shot blocking potential are assets, but I'm not sure how much he fits the Sixers' system. The knock in scouting reports is his athleticism, which the Sixers really covet now. There's no denying his scoring ability though. If the Sixers like that enough, the 16th pick might be a bit of a reach, but they could trade down.
Kentrell Gransberry PF 6'9 270 Senior South Florida
As a Bull, I'm definitely pulling for this guy. As a Big Baby fan and someone who believed he fell way too far in the draft last year, I'm obligated to like a similar player in Gransberry. He has a wide body and plays a very physical game on both ends of the floor. He's obviously not the quickest guy, but most teams always have a spot for a big player in the paint. DX was underwhelmed with his draft camp performances and measurements, so he has some work to do if he wants to raise his slim hopes of being drafted.
David Padgett C 6'11 250 Senior Louisville
He's a hard working player who was very important to Louisville's deep run this year, but the reality is, he just doesn't have the tools NBA teams look for. I know people really dislike it when teams take raw athletes over productive players, but he's not on any draft boards at the moment. Padgett is a very smart player, and he uses it on both ends of the floor. He has a bunch of different low post moves, but he could probably add a jumper to his repertoire.
Marreese Speights FC 6'10 250 Sophomore Florida
He got an opportunity to learn from some of college's best big guys as a freshman, so it wasn't a surprise that Speights showed promise when he started getting a lot more minutes this season. He shows a lot of scoring ability on the offensive end, which could be a huge asset to the Sixers. His size and athleticism give him the potential to be a very good defensive player, so it's easy to see why he's a projected mid-first rounder. He's still pretty raw, but with the Sixers, he would be stepping into a great situation. He'll be able to chip in a few minutes off the bench and learn the NBA game slowly.
The Sixers had Callistus Eziukwu in for a second time as well. They must really think they have something with him if they brought him back.
Ryan Anderson F 5'10 235 Sophomore California
He's got a nice shot and some range, and his combination of size and shooting could be a nice match for the Sixers. Anderson is a high energy player who can pull down a bunch of rebounds. His toughness and shot blocking potential are assets, but I'm not sure how much he fits the Sixers' system. The knock in scouting reports is his athleticism, which the Sixers really covet now. There's no denying his scoring ability though. If the Sixers like that enough, the 16th pick might be a bit of a reach, but they could trade down.
Kentrell Gransberry PF 6'9 270 Senior South Florida
As a Bull, I'm definitely pulling for this guy. As a Big Baby fan and someone who believed he fell way too far in the draft last year, I'm obligated to like a similar player in Gransberry. He has a wide body and plays a very physical game on both ends of the floor. He's obviously not the quickest guy, but most teams always have a spot for a big player in the paint. DX was underwhelmed with his draft camp performances and measurements, so he has some work to do if he wants to raise his slim hopes of being drafted.
David Padgett C 6'11 250 Senior Louisville
He's a hard working player who was very important to Louisville's deep run this year, but the reality is, he just doesn't have the tools NBA teams look for. I know people really dislike it when teams take raw athletes over productive players, but he's not on any draft boards at the moment. Padgett is a very smart player, and he uses it on both ends of the floor. He has a bunch of different low post moves, but he could probably add a jumper to his repertoire.
Marreese Speights FC 6'10 250 Sophomore Florida
He got an opportunity to learn from some of college's best big guys as a freshman, so it wasn't a surprise that Speights showed promise when he started getting a lot more minutes this season. He shows a lot of scoring ability on the offensive end, which could be a huge asset to the Sixers. His size and athleticism give him the potential to be a very good defensive player, so it's easy to see why he's a projected mid-first rounder. He's still pretty raw, but with the Sixers, he would be stepping into a great situation. He'll be able to chip in a few minutes off the bench and learn the NBA game slowly.
The Sixers had Callistus Eziukwu in for a second time as well. They must really think they have something with him if they brought him back.
Game 75: Angels at Phillies (1/3)
Anaheim Angels: 43-30
Philadelphia Phillies: 42-32
Ervin Santana (8-3 3.40 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Adam Eaton (2-4 4.57 ERA, 2-1 5.26 ERA)
Projected lineups
Figgins 3B 3/6, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .500/.571/1.167
Matthews LF 1/5, 1 RBI, .200/.333/.200
Kendrick 2B 1/9, .111/.111/.111
Guerrero RF 3/10, .300/.364/.300
Hunter CF 1/3, .333/.333/.333
Kotchman 1B N/A
Mathis C 0/2
Izturis SS 3/10, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .300/.364/.600
Santana P
Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Jenkins RF N/A
Feliz 3B N/A
Coste C N/A
Eaton P
Adam Eaton should hopefully be able to have another decent outing. This lineup hasn't had much success against him, and we can only hope he keeps that up. After Kendrick's bad outing on Wednesday, this team could use a strong start from the rotation. Even though the entire bullpen got a rest yesterday, it would be great if they weren't used much again today.
Anaheim is a beatable team. They're very good on the road, but sometimes they have trouble scoring. If the Phillies find a way to put a dent in their strong pitching, they should be able to win the series and get back on track. Things don't get any easier after this, so let's finish the homestand on a better note and hit the road.
Philadelphia Phillies: 42-32
Ervin Santana (8-3 3.40 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Adam Eaton (2-4 4.57 ERA, 2-1 5.26 ERA)
Projected lineups
Figgins 3B 3/6, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .500/.571/1.167
Matthews LF 1/5, 1 RBI, .200/.333/.200
Kendrick 2B 1/9, .111/.111/.111
Guerrero RF 3/10, .300/.364/.300
Hunter CF 1/3, .333/.333/.333
Kotchman 1B N/A
Mathis C 0/2
Izturis SS 3/10, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .300/.364/.600
Santana P
Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Jenkins RF N/A
Feliz 3B N/A
Coste C N/A
Eaton P
Adam Eaton should hopefully be able to have another decent outing. This lineup hasn't had much success against him, and we can only hope he keeps that up. After Kendrick's bad outing on Wednesday, this team could use a strong start from the rotation. Even though the entire bullpen got a rest yesterday, it would be great if they weren't used much again today.
Anaheim is a beatable team. They're very good on the road, but sometimes they have trouble scoring. If the Phillies find a way to put a dent in their strong pitching, they should be able to win the series and get back on track. Things don't get any easier after this, so let's finish the homestand on a better note and hit the road.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Carter Is Back, Baby
He's set to sign a three year deal worth about 15 million.
I'm definitely glad he's back in the fold for the immediate future, but at that cap hit, I wish the deal would've been longer. That's a lot of money invested at the C position, but he's a talented player and probably worth it.
I'm not sure how much longer he'll be a Flyer. At three years, it's obviously not a long term deal at all. He'll only be 26 when it expires, and he'll still be eligible for restricted free agency. Carter's going to get one more big pay day, and he wasn't looking for long term security like Mike Richards.
This means he has to perform though. If he underachieves, he's not going to get quite as much money next time around. It's a gamble, and if he develops into the player everyone thinks he can, it'll be a good one. He has a big body and huge skills, and I'm glad he's a Flyer.
I'm definitely glad he's back in the fold for the immediate future, but at that cap hit, I wish the deal would've been longer. That's a lot of money invested at the C position, but he's a talented player and probably worth it.
I'm not sure how much longer he'll be a Flyer. At three years, it's obviously not a long term deal at all. He'll only be 26 when it expires, and he'll still be eligible for restricted free agency. Carter's going to get one more big pay day, and he wasn't looking for long term security like Mike Richards.
This means he has to perform though. If he underachieves, he's not going to get quite as much money next time around. It's a gamble, and if he develops into the player everyone thinks he can, it'll be a good one. He has a big body and huge skills, and I'm glad he's a Flyer.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Flyers Get Something For Nothing
The Flyers get the 196th overall pick and a conditional 4th rounder next year for the rights to UFA Vinny Prospal.
It's better than nothing, but it's not much more than that. Prospal had no interest in coming back, and the Flyers wouldn't be able to afford him anyway. In that sense, they got something because he previously would've gone to the same place with the Flyers receiving nothing. The condition for the pick is based on whether or not the Lightning sign him, but I'll be shocked if he goes anywhere else. Pardon the pun.
It was a bit disappointing how Prospal finished up the playoffs. He was pretty good against Washington, and for whatever reason, he fell off the map after that. However, without him, the Flyers probably wouldn't have made the playoffs. He turned around Briere's season, and those two played a big role in the team's resurgence to capture the 6th seed.
It's better than nothing, but it's not much more than that. Prospal had no interest in coming back, and the Flyers wouldn't be able to afford him anyway. In that sense, they got something because he previously would've gone to the same place with the Flyers receiving nothing. The condition for the pick is based on whether or not the Lightning sign him, but I'll be shocked if he goes anywhere else. Pardon the pun.
It was a bit disappointing how Prospal finished up the playoffs. He was pretty good against Washington, and for whatever reason, he fell off the map after that. However, without him, the Flyers probably wouldn't have made the playoffs. He turned around Briere's season, and those two played a big role in the team's resurgence to capture the 6th seed.
Game 74: Red Sox at Phillies (3/3)
Boston Red Sox: 45-29
Philadelphia Phillies: 42-31
Justin Masterson (3-1 2.90 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Kyle Kendrick6-2 4.54 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Ellsbury CF N/A
Pedroia 2B N/A
Drew RF N/A
Ramirez LF N/A
Lowell 3B N/A
Youkilis 1B N/A
Lugo SS N/A
Cash C N/A
Masterson P
Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Jenkins RF N/A
Dobbs 3B N/A
Coste C N/A
Kendrick P
I said the offense would have to put up eight runs again last night, and I was dead wrong. Moyer issued a few too many free passes, and that led to a high pitch count that got him out of the game early. Otherwise, he and the bullpen did a nice job. Only allowing three runs should be good enough to win most games, but it's impossible to win a baseball game without scoring any.
Masterson has a heavy sinker, so he's the kind of guy that could give the Phillies problems if he's on. The lineup needs to re-break out and send a message to the rest of the league. They can compete with the Sox, hopefully Angels and the better teams in the league. Put up some runs today and take a series from the Sox for the first time in a while.
Philadelphia Phillies: 42-31
Justin Masterson (3-1 2.90 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Kyle Kendrick6-2 4.54 ERA, 0-0 --- ERA)
Projected lineups
Ellsbury CF N/A
Pedroia 2B N/A
Drew RF N/A
Ramirez LF N/A
Lowell 3B N/A
Youkilis 1B N/A
Lugo SS N/A
Cash C N/A
Masterson P
Rollins SS N/A
Victorino CF N/A
Utley 2B N/A
Howard 1B N/A
Burrell LF N/A
Jenkins RF N/A
Dobbs 3B N/A
Coste C N/A
Kendrick P
I said the offense would have to put up eight runs again last night, and I was dead wrong. Moyer issued a few too many free passes, and that led to a high pitch count that got him out of the game early. Otherwise, he and the bullpen did a nice job. Only allowing three runs should be good enough to win most games, but it's impossible to win a baseball game without scoring any.
Masterson has a heavy sinker, so he's the kind of guy that could give the Phillies problems if he's on. The lineup needs to re-break out and send a message to the rest of the league. They can compete with the Sox, hopefully Angels and the better teams in the league. Put up some runs today and take a series from the Sox for the first time in a while.
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