First Inning Fun

It's time for another Excel project, even though my first one isn't officially completed yet. This one wasn't nearly as time consuming, and I pretty much wrapped it all up during the Phillies loss last night.

A lot of fans have made the observation that Phillies pitchers struggle in the first inning. If this is the case, it's obviously a bad thing. These pitchers are putting their team in a hole immediately, and it gets tough having to fight back over and over again. Don't get me wrong; there are maybe a handful of teams that can battle back like the Phillies, but it grows tiresome for everyone.

I wanted to see just how bad they really are. I looked at the box scores for every game of the season to date. I marked down whether or not they won, lost, how many earned and unearned runs were given up in the first inning, who picked, and just for kicks, how many runs were given up the rest of the game. I haven't done anything with the last part yet, and I doubt I ever will.

Before I get to the team numbers, I'm going to admit right now that they don't tell you much. I don't have the numbers for other teams, so I don't know how they compare to the rest of the league. Maybe giving up first inning runs is a leaguewide issue, and the Phillies don't look as bad compared to everyone else. As it stands, things aren't pretty. They give up .85 runs per first inning, .79 of which are earned. If they did that every inning, it would be a 7.11 ERA. That's definitely not acceptable.

The Phillies are 13-23 when pitchers give up a run or more in the first inning. In 36 games out of 81, they've been put in a hole, sometimes before they even step up to the plate. I hope that they can cut down in this eventually because it's clear that it decreases their odds of winning; they post a 30-15 record when they don't give up runs in the first inning.

Are all Phillies pitchers offenders? Yes. Even Cole Hamels gives up his share of first inning runs. He has given up 8 earn runs in 16 first innings, which means he gives up .5 ER per 1st for a 4.50 ERA. Compared to his ERA in innings 2-9 of 3.06, it becomes clear that the first inning is not his best. He has a .812 OPS against in the 1st, which is higher than all but two other innings. The Phillies are 8-3 when he gets out of the first inning scoreless, and 2-3 when he doesn't.

Jamie Moyer is an interesting case. He has the fewest outings in which he doesn't give up a first inning run with four. However, they are all multiple run innings. Apparently, if he's going to get hit early, it'll be hard. Is it a coincidence that he gives up first inning runs less than everyone else? Maybe there's something to the notion that he's more prepared than other pitchers. Because of the multi-run innings, his first inning ERA is at 5.63. I'm thrilled that he has posted a 4.09 ERA this far, but it would be great if he could push it even closer to the 3.78 mark he has after the first. The Phillies are 2-2 when he gets knocked around in the first and 8-4 when he doesn't give up any runs.

Kyle Kendrick is the only pitcher in the rotation that is above .500 when he allows a run in the first inning. At 4-3, he proves he can hang in there even if he gets off to a rough start, and I'm sure the team leading run support doesn't hurt either. Kendrick gives up .69 runs per 1st, which equals a 6.19 ERA. Even though it's nice to see him battle through bad spots, it would be nice to see him put up more first inning zeros. The Phillies are 8-1 when he pitches a scoreless first, which is the best record in the rotation.

Adam Eaton, as fans might expect, is a frequent offender of giving up first inning runs. He's given up 13 of them in 16 first innings, which is good for .81 runs per and a 7.31 ERA. Unfortunately, all of those runs are earned, so it's not like he's getting hurt by his defense. The Phillies are 3-5 when he gets touched in the first, and 4-4 when he doesn't. His ERA the rest of the way is only 4.35, and I'm sure the Phillies and fans would be ecstatic if he could limit the damage in the first. Why is the team only 4-4 when he doesn't give up any first inning runs? He gets by far the worst run support.

If giving up first inning runs was a crime, Brett Myers would be serving a life sentence. He has been terrible in the first inning this season, and it's kind of funny that so many people want him to move back to the bullpen. If he gives up 1.29 runs in his first inning every time, how does that make an effective reliever? He's the only pitcher in the rotation that has given up first inning runs more often than not, and that is absolutely disastrous. Even his 4.68 ERA the rest of the game isn't up to the level anyone thought he would be at this year. Just brutal.

This is a clear area for the Phillies to improve. I don't know if just yanking Myers from the rotation is going to get it done because all of them frequently get into early trouble. It's up to Rich Dubee and the players themselves to figure out the problem. Do they need to throw more pitches in warm ups? I don't know how you can just get people to focus sooner, but it's clear that there's something wrong that needs to be corrected.