Monday, May 5, 2008

5/6 Prospect Power Rankings

This is an idea I thought of a few days ago, so I'm going to see how it goes. Basically, I'm going to take BaseballAmerica's top 31 list, and make adjustments to it based on how the prospect is doing. If I continue this in the future, adjustments will be made to the previously adjusted list. All stats are from before yesterday (and today's) action.

1. SP Carlos Carrasco AA: 2-2, 4.03 ERA, 29 IP, 28 H, 12 BB, 32 K: Stock Push: After a terrible transition to AA last season, Carrasco is making adjustments and improving. Although is hit rate is a tad higher than last year's, his command has been much better with more than a K an inning and fewer walks.
2. 2B Adrian Cardenas A+: 17/49, 5 R, 2 RBI, 1/1 SB, .347/.373/.408: Stock Push: A back injury has temporarily sidetracked Cardenas, who has not played in over two weeks. Prior to the injury, Cardenas was making good contact with the ball. Some extra base hits would be nice to see when he comes back.
3. SP Joe Savery A+: 1-2 2.92 ERA, 37 IP, 37 H, 14 BB, 31 K: Stock Up: His command has gotten better since last season, which was probably his biggest problem. He's been getting hit a bit more in the early going, but that's to be expected when making the jump to a new level. His K rate remains virtually the same.
4. SP Josh Outman AA: 1-2, 3.41 ERA, 29 IP, 33 H, 17 BB, 34 K: Stock Down: The big news of last week was Outman being moved to the bullpen, which has a significant impact on his stock. The Phillies apparently don't see a bright future for him. Even if they want Outman in the bullpen, it would still make sense to get him IP from the rotation to develop his pitches.
5. SP Kyle Drabek DL: N/A: Stock Down: He hasn't pitched, so he really can't improve. The Phillies still hope he can toss some innings later this year.
6. OF Dominic Brown A: 36/120, 16 R, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 8/9 SB, .300/.344/.392: Stock Push: Brown was a toolsy OF identified by BA this offseason. His value is still in tools and not performance yet. He's hitting for a high average, but it would be great if he could improve his SLG% a bit. He's probably going to become a leadoff-type guy, so the decline in BB rate isn't what you're looking for.
7. OF Greg Golson AA: 35/118, 19 R, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 10/13 SB, .297/.341/.441: Stock Up: Golson is one of the biggest mysteries in minor league baseball, but he's answering some questions this season. He's improving on last year's terrible AA stint and starting to remind the Phillies why they took him in the first round a few years ago. He still has some work to do, but he's experiencing success.
8. C Lou Marson AA: 26/79, 10 R, 13 RBI, 0/2 SB, .329/.437/.405: Stock Up: Marson was a HS draftee of the Phillies, and he's finally starting to break out. Recently, it was mentioned that he'll end up more of a #2 hitter, and his OBP with Reading proves it. He's never going to be a big HR guy, but he should hit a few doubles.
9. SP Drew Carpenter AA: 1-4, 6.25 ERA, 31.2 IP, 42 H, 17 BB, 22 K: Stock Down: Carpenter is a guy I've been high on for a while. I thought of the major pitching prospects in the organization, he would be the most likely callup because of his college experience and polish. Instead, he's struggling in AA. His rates aren't good and he has to turn it around quickly.
10. C Jason Jaramillo AAA: 18/95, 4 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, .189/.225/.274: Stock Down: He never profiled as more than a backup C, but this year has been brutal. It's his second year in AAA, and his season has been significantly worse. His performance at the plate has not even been close to acceptable.
11. SP JA Happ AAA: 0-4, 2.97 ERA, 39.1 IP, 30 H, 21 BB, 42 K: Stock Up: After battling some injury problems last season, Happ has rebounded a bit as a prospect. If he gets in control of his stuff, he could get back into the big picture. However, at 25 years old, he's running out of time.
12. SP Scott Mathieson DL: N/A: Stock Down: I'm not sure if he's ever going to pitch again, and it's a shame.
13. SS Freddy Galvis A: 16/101, 10 R, 4 RBI, 3/4 SB, .158/.239/.168: Stock Push: He's been brutal at the plate so far, but the dude is younger than I am. He's already playing in Low A, and that's impressive. He has an awesome glove, and he could become a player if he improves his bat.
14. SP Edgar Garcia A+: 4-0, 3.50 ERA, 36 IP, 37 H, 11 BB, 33 K: Stock Up: BaseballAmerica was high on Garcia prior to 2007, but his stock dipped a bit with a subpar performance at Lakewood. He seems to have gotten things straightened out with improved command and rates.
15. SS Jason Donald AA: 25/75, 12 R, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 4/6 SB, .333/.405/.440: Stock Up: BA probably wasn't high on Donald because of his lack of tools and age, but he's getting results in the minors. His ceiling might just be a utility player in the majors, but he can probably play a bunch of positions and has proven himself to be a decent hitter over the past year and a half.
16. C Travis d'Arnaud XST: N/A: Stock Down: Hopefully the next Lieberthal or whatever he was anointed can show some promise with Williamsport.
17. P Heitor Correa XST: N/A: Stock Down: What am I supposed to do with these guys who haven't played?
18. 3B Travis Mattair A: 21/99, 10 R, 8 RBI, 0/1 SB, .212/.291/.232: Stock Push: It's great that he was able to jump right to full season ball, but I have a feeling he'll be seeing some time with the Crosscutters when their season begins.
19. SP Julian Sampson A: 1-1, 7.18 ERA, 26.1 IP, 38 H, 16 BB, 16 K: Stock Push: He's still really young, and like Mattair, he'll probably be fitted for a Williamsport uniform at some point after June. Lakewood hasn't been kind to him.
20. IF Brad Harman (AA)MLB: 1/5, 1 R, 1 RBI, .200/.333/.400: Stock Push: He's on the active roster because he's the one guy we have on the 40 man roster. It's a good experience for him to be working with the ML coaches though.
21. OF D'Arby Myers A: 18/89, 11 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 5/5 SB, .202/.265/.281: Stock Down: After a very fast start in Williamsport last year, D'Arby has cooled off tremendously. He's still very young, and he could turn it around in the future.
22. SP Carlos Monsaterios A+: 2-2, 4.06 ERA, 31 IP, 28 H, 9 BB, 19 K: Stock Up: He's sidelined with an injury at the moment, but this is the guy that could potentially salvage the Phillies something from the Bobby Abreu trade.
23. OF Quintin Berry A+: 25/104, 6 R, 7 RBI, 9/11 SB, .240/.347/.279: Stock Down: It's easy to compare him to Michael Bourn because he's fast, but Berry will never be Bourn. He has a good eye at the plate, but he needs to put the ball in play more and get more base hits if he wants to continue to rise through the system.
24. RP Joe Bisenius (AAA)AA: 0-0, 3.00 ERA, 3 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K: Stock Down: His 2007 was unimpressive, and things haven't gotten much better in 08. His ceiling was already limited, and he's fighting an uphill battle at this point.
25. 2B Tyler Mach A/leave of absence: N/A: Stock Down: No idea what's going on here. Maybe he'll come back sometime. Frankly, I don't care. I wish him the best.
26. SP Antonio Bastardo (A+)AA: 1-0, 1.59 ERA, 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K: Stock Up: His gaudy numbers in Clearwater have everyone excited, and he hasn't lost since coming over to the states. That gets a big thumbs up in my book.
27. RP Mike Zagurski DL: N/A: Stock Down: He's not pitching this year, which obviously does not bode well for prospect status, which I'm not certain he had in the first place.
28. OF Matt Spencer A+: 35/118, 18 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 1/2 SB, .297/.361/.458: Stock Up: He was a college 2007 draftee, and he jumped all the way to Clearwater. He's proving to be worth the jump, and he could move through the system even faster soon.
29. SP Drew Naylor A: 2-2, 2.25 ERA, 44 IP, 32 H, 12 BB, 50 K: Stock Up: Naylor had a very good short season in Williamsport, and he's continuing to put up good numbers in full season ball. He should probably get more attention soon.
30. RP Lincoln Holdzkom Boston: He doesn't even play here anymore.
31. P Freddy Ballestas XST: N/A: Stock Down: I say stock down, but I'd have to come up with someone else to put here.

The new top 30:
(1) 1. SP Carlos Carrasco AA
(2) 2. 2B Adrian Cardenas A+
(3) 3. SP Joe Savery A+
(5) 4. SP Kyle Drabek DL
(7) 5. OF Greg Golson AA
(8) 6. C Lou Marson AA
(4) 7. P Josh Outman AA
(6) 8. OF Dominic Brown A
(11) 9. SP J.A. Happ AAA
(14) 10. SP Edgar Garcia A+
(15) 11. SS Jason Donald AA
(9) 12. SP Drew Carpenter AA
(26) 13. SP Antonio Bastardo AA
(13) 14. SS Freddy Galvis A
(10) 15. C Jason Jaramillo AAA
(16) 16. C Travis D'Arnaud XST
(17) 17. P Heitor Correa XST
(20) 18. IF Brad Harman MLB
(18) 19. 3B Travis Mattair A
(12) 20. SP Carlos Monasterios A+
(19) 21. SP Julian Sampson A
(29) 22. SP Drew Naylor A+
(NR) 23. 1B Michael Durant A
(12) 24. SP Scott Mathieson DL
(NR) 25. OF Michael Taylor A
(28) 26. OF Matt Spencer A+
(21) 27. OF D'Arby Myers A
(23) 28. OF Quintin Berry A+
(24) 29. RP Joe Bisenius AA
(NR) 30. P Tyson Brummett A+
(31) 31. P Freddy Ballestas XST

Somewhat relevant:
(25) 2B Tyler Mach ???
(27) RP Mike Zagurski DL
(NR) P Travis Blackley AAA
(NR) OF Jeremy Slayden AA
(NR) RP Robert Swindle AA
(NR) RP Pat Overholt AA
(NR) OF Gus Milner A+
(NR) P Chance Chapman A

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