Both of those politicians may be long gone, but it doesn't mean they can debate Mets/Phillies from the grave. This will be the first of a three part series featuring lineup, rotation and bullpen comparisons. Who will win the NL East? In this heated election season, it's too close to call. If I do have any readers, now would be the time to chime in and post some comments. Let's get some debate and reader responses in. Pitchers and catchers have reported.
The aces: Johan Santana v. Cole Hamels
I chose to post these comparisons and begin with the rotation mostly because of this guy. I've already posted an entry of my thoughts on the trade, so I'm not going to get into that at all. The only thing Mets fans need to worry about in regards to Santana: is he wearing down? 2007 was his worst season since he began starting, but even then, he was one of the very best in baseball. His numbers were down across the board, including innings pitched. With all that being said, he's Johan Santana. Enough said. He's a two time Cy Young winner, and it was absolute highway robbery when Bartolo Colon and Mariano Rivera beat him just two years ago. He's in the prime of his career and has great stuff. Compared to other lefties, he has a very hard fastball, topping out at 94 or 95. His secondary stuff might be his best; his changeup is probably the best in baseball, he features a hard slider and his command is great. He's a big money pitcher and a big headache for batters.
However, the Phillies have a lefty of their own, and he's going to be great too. Cole Hamels took a few lumps in his first year in the majors in 2006, but he burst onto the scene as a top pitcher in 2007. In hitter-friendly Citizen's Bank Park, he managed to post a 3.39 ERA, good for 8th in the NL, and his ERA+ was actually better than Santana's. He too has great command and strikes out a lot of batters. He has a very good fastball topping out at 93-94, along with three offspeed pitches. He can use two different changeups to induce ground balls or strike batters out, and he has a developing curveball, which he used very effectively down the stretch. However, he doesn't come with no strings attached either. He's had injury problems in the past, and in 2007, they cropped up again, which really limited his innings and hurt the Phillies' staff. If he can stay injury free, which almost seems impossible at this point, he could contend for the strikeout title and win some hardware.
The edge: For 2008, I have to give it to Santana. In the long run, I think Cole Hamels is going to be the better pitcher, but Santana has been healthy and reliable for a few years now, while Cole doesn't have that track record yet.
These guys are good too: Pedro Martinez v. Brett Myers
It just seems like yesterday that Pedro Martinez helped Boston win their first World Series since 1918. Fast forward to 2007, and he's in his 4th year with the Mets. He threw 217 innings in 2005, but in 2006, the wheels started to come off. After a strong first two months, Pedro started getting hit and losing games. It was eventually discovered that he had a torn rotator cuff, among other injuries, that was hindering his performance. He finished with 132.2 IP in 2006. He rehabbed and worked his way back to the Mets late in 2007, when he posted a 2.57 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 5 starts. Obviously, health is the big issue with Pedro. He has always had injury problems, and it's the main reason why the Red Sox didn't re-sign this legend to the 4th year of a contract he's working on now. However, when healthy, Pedro is still great. He was dominant early in 2006 before getting hurt, and he looked good again in 2007. He's not as dominant and overpowering as he used to be, but he's smart and gets it done with his great offspeed stuff.
Things aren't all coming up Myers either. He had a down year in 2007, and it was also a very unique season. After three starts, one very good, two bad, he was moved to the bullpen for an overall lack of quality and injuries with the current relievers. This was a controversial decision: did it pay off? They ended up winning the division, but his future definitely lies in the rotation, whether he likes it or not. He has great stuff and is best served pitching 6 innings a game. Anyway, he suffered a serious shoulder injury in May, but eventually came back and pitched well down the stretch. His ERA was way up because of an increased walk rate, but his hit and K rates remained strong. One other question about Myers; how good is he? He had two very good years as a starter, posting 3.72 and 3.91 ERAs in 2005 and 2006. He's still young and is just entering his prime, but his 2007 kind of made it hard to project what he's going to do down the road. He has a great fastball and a great curveball, as well as some other secondary pitches. Hopefully he stays healthy and contributes positively, the way all Phillies fans know he can.
The edge: Will Pedro Martinez start 30 games? Your answer to that determines who wins this one. If he does, he'll be more valuable than Myers. If he's hurt and misses too many starts, Myers gets the edge. I think Pedro will make a relatively smooth return this year, so chalk up another one to the Mets.
Sink or swim? John Maine v. Kyle Kendrick
John Maine was somewhat surprising in 2007. He's a bit of a late bloomer; he was a college draftee in 2002, and he didn't start 30 games until he was 26 in 2007. He was always pretty good in the minors. At one point, he was a top 10 prospect with Baltimore, but when he reached AAA and the majors, he stopped showing any promise. The Orioles threw him in a trade to the Mets to land Kris Benson, and things didn't exactly work out. Maine pitched very well in 15 starts for the Mets in 2006, and used that as a springboard for a strong start to 2007. He had a 10-4 record and 2.71 ERA before the All-Star Break, and he probably should've been an All-Star. However, Maine was awful in the second half. He only won 5 games and had a 5.53 ERA. His challenge for 2008 is pitching well an entire season. He has to prove that the first half wasn't a fluke, and that he's not the pitcher that peaked in AA with Baltimore. He has alright stuff, and he needs to stay in command. He's always had pretty good hit and K rates, but when his walks go up, he gets into trouble.
Kyle Kendrick was another surprise. He was drafted out of HS in 2003 and stumbled through the minors. He was 5-16 in his first full year of pro ball, and things didn't get any better in 2005. In 2006, not developing and still in A ball, he finally put together, posting 2.15 and 3.53 ERAs at Lakewood and Clearwater respectively. In 2007, he started the season at Reading, where he had a 3.21 ERA in 12 starts. He was finally showing the promise the Phillies thought he had when they drafted him, when injuries began to hit the ML squad. The Phillies had a choice. They could call up an injured J.A. Happ, a struggling Zack Segovia, or this kid in AA. Fortunately for the Phillies, they chose Kendrick. He pitched to the tune of a 3.87 ERA, a much needed boost for a rotation that was in turmoil. Was it a fluke? He was a late bloomer in the minors, so a lot of people question how good he actually is. His peripherals have always been okay. He sits around a hit an inning, but he doesn't strike batters out. He counters this by getting a lot of ground balls and not walking guys, and keeping the ball on the ground is huge at CBP. He has to prove that he's in the majors to stay and not just a flash in the pan. Hopefully for the Phillies, his good 2 seam fastball allows him to have success again.
The edge: Know what? Call me krazy, but I'll take Kendrick. Maine's second half was absolutely terrifying, and I think it's more likely that Kendrick repeats his 2007.
The Young guns: Orlando Hernandez v. Jamie Moyer
I probably shouldn't do this, but I wanted to match up the old guys. Oliver Perez will probably be the Mets' 4th starter. Nevertheless, when the Mets dealt Jorge Julio to Arizona for Orlando Hernandez last May, they made quite a deal. After struggling to find the touch that made him a reliable starter for the Yankees in one year plus with the White Sox and Diamondbacks, El Duque has turned it around back in New York. His deceptive delivery and breaking stuff allowed him to post a 4.09 ERA with the Mets in 20 2006 starts and 3.72 ERA in 24 2007 starts. However, injuries always seem to be the name of the game for this guy. He only managed to throw 147.2 innings last season, and he's only thrown 200 once in his career. Throw in the fact that he's listed as 42 years old, and you have to wonder how well he's going to hold up. One other issue that can creep up time to time is his command. He walks a few too many sometimes, and it's important to stay patient against him and not swing out of your shoes in your AB's against him.
Jamie Moyer, the only pitcher in history to cash a paycheck and social security check on the same day, is back for what might be his last season in 2008. Despite his age, he was the only Phillies starter to make all of his starts last year, and he hasn't had physical problems in a long time, and his great mechanics can account for that. His mechanics and deception have allowed him to remain in the game for a long time. For a guy who doesn't have great stuff at all, Moyer has done a great job of making adjustments to stay one step ahead of everyone. However, he needs to bounce back from his poor second half. He had ERA's over 6 in both July and August, after a strong start to the season and two months of 2006. His last two starts of the season, the division clincher against Washington and game 3 against Colorado, were encouraging though. After another offseason of hard work, I'm sure he'll be ready to do one or two things differently to gain an edge again. His lessons for the younger pitchers are invaluable, and he has a spot on this team as long as he wants.
The edge: He's definitely a sentimental favorite, but Jamie Moyer just isn't that good anymore. He really struggled for half the season last year, and I really hope he's not done. Orlando Hernandez will just be a better pitcher this year, if he's healthy.
Rounding it out: Oliver Perez v. Adam Eaton
Oliver Perez had a re-breakout year in 2007, when he had a 3.56 ERA, after two straight terrible seasons. It's a re-breakout because of the bar he set himself in 2004 with the Pirates, when he showed a lot of promise by posting a 2.98 ERA in 30 starts. However, his stock soon plummeted when he posted an ERA nearly three runs higher than that in 2005. His stuff has always been great. His fastball is electric and he has a great slider, but he has a tough time putting it altogether. He can't command the strike zone, and he's prone to games where he just gives way too many free passes. I'm in the camp that Oliver Perez is going to look more like the 2005 or 2006 versions of himself rather than the 2004 or even 2007 versions. However, his season definitely won't be one of the extremes. He'll be in the high 3's or low 4's in terms of ERA and pitching another season in Shea will benefit him. This guy had loads of potential, and if he somehow reaches it, the Mets will have one of the best rotation's in the league.
I'm going to go on the record right now and say Adam Eaton will not be as bad as last season. Is it even possible? Last season's struggles were so far out of line from the rest of his career. I still don't think he'll make a positive contribution, but at the very least, it won't be as negative. And he can still kick the Mets' asses every day of the week.
The edge: Oliver Perez isn't Adam Eaton
So it appears that the Mets have the better rotation. That doesn't mean that'll necessarily be true when March 31st rolls around. As you saw with a number of the players, there are a lot of variables that could drastically alter results. Will they stay healthy? Was their most recent performance a fluke? You just never know, but at this point in time, I'd say the Mets have the better rotation.
However, for all this talk about the Phillies and the Mets, there's one other serious contender in the division, and they have some arms to brag about too. The Braves rotation is led by John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, who won them a lot of games last year. The problem with Atlanta last year was getting consistency besides them. Chuck James has alright potential, but he might have shoulder issues lingering from last year. Tom Glavine was added, but how much does he have left in the tank? Can Reyes or Jurrjens step up and solidify the back end of the rotation. They have their own questions to answer.
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