Super Bowl Friday

It's Wing Bowl Friday, and that means it's time for my Super Bowl preview. This will likely come in several installments, starting with pass offense and defense and rush offense and defense.

Patriots Passing v. Giants Pass Defense

Regular season:
NE- 4731 yards, 8.29 YPA, 68.8% completion, 50 TD, 9 INT, 116 QB rating, 21 sacks allowed
NYG- 3317 yards, 7.01 YPA, 58.5% completion, 24 TD, 15 INT, 83.4 QB rating, 53 sacks

Postseason:
NE- 456 yards, 7.72 YPA, 78.7% completion, 5 TD, 3 INT, 105.7 QB rating, 3 sacks allowed
NYG- 620 yards, 5.86 YPA, 54.5% completion, 4 TD, 5 INT, 65.1 QB rating, 3 sacks

The Giants' pass defense has been somewhat surprising this postseason. They've really tightened up and fixed one of their weaknesses, despite sacking opposing Quarterbacks significantly less than they did in the regular season. In the week 17 meeting, Brady lit them up to the tune of 356 yards and 2 TDs, but things could be different this time around. The Patriots have sacrificed most of their aggressive, downfield passing attack in favor of more high precentage throws. The bye week should have allowed some of the banged up Giant defenders to get ready to go, and it will be interesting to see if they can begin putting tremendous pressure on the QB again.

Giants Passing v. Patriots Pass Defense

Regular season:
NYG- 3154 yards, 6.21 YPA, 55.5% completion, 23 TD, 20 INT, 73 QB rating, 21 sacks allowed
NE- 3041 yards, 6.43 YPA, 59.7% completion, 23 TD, 19 INT, 78.1 QB rating, 47 sacks

Postseason:
NYG- 560 yards, 7.05 YPA, 62.4% completion, 4 TD, 0 INT, 99.1 QB rating, 6 sacks allowed
NE- 477 yards, 6.99 YPA, 58.6% completion, 2 TD, 3 INT, 71.1 QB rating, 2 sacks

When one first glances at these numbers, something jumps out. That's obviously the huge improvement made by Eli Manning between the regular and post seasons. The completion percentage is good, he's avoiding turnovers and he's making plays downfield. This is only the second time in his career in which he's gone three straight games without throwing a pick. If he avoids them in the Super Bowl, it will be the first time he's gone four straight games. The Patriots, like the Giants, have improved their pass defense just a little bit in the playoffs. Also like the Giants, they've been getting fewer sacks. The plan against Manning has always been to get pressure directly in his face, so look for Junior Seau to continue his solid postseason and maybe force Eli to rush his throws.

Patriots Rushing v. Giants Rush Defense

Regular Season:
NE- 1849 yards, 4.1 YPC, 17 TD, 4 fumbles lost
NYG- 1563 yards, 3.8 YPC, 12 TD, 8 fumbles recovered

Postseason:
NE- 294 yards, 4.9 YPC, 2 TD, 0 fumbles lost
NYG- 251 yards, 3.6 YPC, 2 TD, 0 fumbles recovered

The Patriots have been leaning on their running game a bit more in the postseason. One problem in the regular season is how much they passed and their formations. Obviously increased passing will result in decreased rushing results, but it's more than that. The Offensive Line, as good as they are, can't get in a rythym and can't attack the defense like every lineman loves to do. These guys love blowing players off the ball, and they're getting more opportunities to do it. The Giants' run defense, already pretty good in the regular season, has improved just a little bit in the playoffs. Although some think they have the reputation of being a finesse defense beacuse of their great pass rushing ability, guys like Strahan and Pierce can play the run well and anchor the defense.

Giants Rushing v. Patriots Rush Defense

Regular Season:
NYG- 2148 yards, 4.6 YPC, 15 TD, 13 fumbles lost
NE- 1572 yards, 4.4 YPC, 7 TD, 10 fumbles recovered

Post Season:
NYG- 324 yards, 3.5 YPC, 4 TD, 0 fumbles lost
NE- 184 yards, 4.2 YPC, 0 TD, 1 fumble recovered

As the season has progressed, the Giants' backfield has emerged. Even though Brandon Jacobs has been banged up throughout the year, Ahmad Bradshaw has come out of nowhere to provide a home run threat. The 7th round pick out of Marshall has given the Giants the spark they need that Jacobs' bruising style cannot provide. However, that hasn't shown in the postseason results, which has seen a serious decline in the Giants' running game. Jacobs should be fully healthy and ready to wear down the Patriot defense and allow Bradshaw to get them when they're tired. Will this work? The Patriots have been decidedly mediocre against the run this year, regular and postseasons. Their YPC isn't impressive, and their TD against total might not be either, when you consider that they got up on teams by so much, opponents didn't want to run the ball to put up points.

Tomorrow, I'll preview something I haven't decided yet.