The Twins Are Down And Can't Get Up

Twins deal Johan Santana to the Mets for four prospects. Thank you USA Today.

As I've alluded to in the heading on this blog, I don't see what the Twins are thinking. Obviously, I'm not in baseball, and I don't know all the details of this offseason's negotiations, but I find it hard to believe this was the best deal the Twins had on the table.

If it's true that the Yankees were offering a package involving Phil Hughes or if the Red Sox were offering a package of blue chip prospects, the Twins might regret not taking one of those deals. Although they got the Mets' 2, 3, 4 and 7th ranked prospects according to Baseball America, The Mets' farm system isn't that strong. As a whole, they don't have much high ceiling talent. With the trade the Twins accepted, I don't think they got any.

Fernando Martinez is the Mets' best prospect. He has a lot of tools and he's really being challenged in leagues he probably shouldn't be in yet. Is he a sure thing? No, but he has the highest ceiling of anyone in the Mets organization. Carlos Gomez is essentially the same player but probably won't be as good, so I think the Twins could've at least held out for him. The trade would've been a little better.

As for the guys the Twins did get? Carlos Gomez is a pretty good prospect. He spent quite a bit of time in the majors last year and shouldn't be considered a prospect, but let's keep calling him that for kicks. Although he was in the majors, it wasn't necessarily good; he hit .232/.288/.304 in 125 AB. He wasn't impressive at the plate, but he's a toolsy player. He's a great athlete that's going to steal a lot of bases and play great defense. I think he'll be the Twins' Opening Day Centerfielder, and along with Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer, he could help form a formidable outfield in the AL.

Deolis Guerra might have the highest upside in the deal, but it's just that, upside. He was an 18 year old and he played all season in High A St. Lucie, which is very impressive. He's still pretty raw and needs to do a lot of developing before he can make a difference. He did take one big step this year, and that was improve his command. In his first full pro season split between Low and High A in 2006, he walked far too many batters. In 2007, he got his BB/9 under 3. He could still stand to improve his strikeout numbers though.

Kevin Mulvey is the 4th best prospect in the Mets' system. The former Villanova Wildcat was a second round pick of the Mets in 2006, and he could be ready to contribute to the Twins soon. He's only had a little more than one season of pro ball, but he's put up pretty impressive numbers. He has a 3.02 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 30 starts, ranging from AA Binghamton to AAA New Orleans. He's been on the fast track through the system so far, but questions about his stuff mean he might not be any more than a 3/4 starter.

Finally, Philip Humber. He was the 3rd overall pick in 2004 and part of Rice's famous big three. Who would've thought that none of those guys would succeed? The Mets certainly didn't; they were probably expecting more than 9 ML innings out of a top 3 pick who will be 25 on Opening Day. He used to have a lot of promise, but after his 2007, it looks like he might never reach it.

As for the Mets, they have a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension with Santana. They have a good roster and they have the cash to get it done, so I don't expect that to be a problem. Santana had a down year in 2007, for his standards anyway. His 15-13 record with a 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP is obviously nothing to sneeze that, but consider this. Since he became a full time starter in in 2004, he had his fewest amount of wins, most amount of losses, fewest IP, highest H/9, highest BB/9, lowest K/9, highest ERA and highest WHIP in 2007. His numbers were still better than just about every pitcher in baseball though.

Going to Shea Stadium will help him out a lot. It's a pitchers' park and since he's in the NL, on most nights, he won't be facing offenses as explosive as some of the ones he saw in the AL. He's only going to be 29 for the 2008 season, so he shouldn't be out of his prime yet. To put it simply, no matter what number I can give you, the Mets got an awesome pitcher who's going to make a huge difference.

What does this mean for the Phillies? It just lets everyone know it's going to be a close race again. Some Phillies fans could've used this to bring them back down to earth anyway. The Phillies are a good team. The Mets are a good team. Hell, you can't count the Braves out either. The Mets made a great move today without hurting their current ML roster. Could this burn them in the future? Maybe, but I think it's more likely that Santana gives the Mets several great years than any of the guys the Twins got becoming stars.

EDIT: One thing I forgot to mention. I hope this deal wasn't made to keep Santana out of the AL. I don't think trading him to a team that you don't play often just so he "doesn't come back to bite you" is the right way to run a franchise. Yeah, it'll suck if he pitches some good games against you and helps the Sox or Yankees win a championship, but I think the Twins should've taken the best deal, whether it was the Yankees, Tigers or Yomiuri Giants.